Shubh Karira

Seeking mispriced markets

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

China bought 980k mt US soybeans Aug 3–7, taking 2026 purchases to 4.09 MMT. US demand is firm as Brazil loses price edge amid weak crush margins. CFR China Nov: +268¢/bu; $533.43/mt. FOB Santos Sep: $487.24/mt. Brazil exports remain strong.

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Currenty Soyoil is in outright backwardation, every spread inverted, 0 % of full carry, pointing to tight prompt supply. Beans and meal stay in normal contango, roughly 27-66 % and 25-47 % of full carry. Oil is clearly the strong leg here versus beans and meal.
#Carrydivergence

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Argentina’s maritime workers’ strike has halted vessel movements at major grain ports along the Paraná River. Soymeal, soyoil & corn exports face delays. Duration unclear, but prolonged disruption could tighten Argentine supplies and lift export basis.
#ArgentinaFOB #vesseldelays

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

EPA cleared 6 small-refinery RFS exemptions (1 full, 2 partial, 0 denied) on Aug 3, keeping RIN supply tight by returning old RINs instead of issuing new ones. Mildly bullish for SBO demand but too small to be a real catalyst. ZLZ26 popped to 68.17 (+1.9%) #CBOT

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

SoyOil FOB turns firmer as buyers grow convinced of an upward move. Buyers are raising bids closer to sellers’ offers, signalling stronger physical demand and narrowing bid-offer spreads; a bullish sign for FOB basis/premiums.
#FOBBasis #Premiums

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Warsh: Sep hike odds moved lower, yet the long end sold off sharply. Mkts are separating near term policy from longer term infltn and lqdty risks. The msprcng may be assuming infltn credibility requires higher rates, when Warsh could tighten through QT and the balance sheet.#FOMC

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The economy was described as growing at a solid pace with stable employment and strong investment. The markets trimmed expectations of a Sep rate hike, easing pressure on the $ and modestly supporting commodities.#FOMC #FED

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Weekly COT: Hedge funds stayed bullish on oilseeds, attracting the largest inflows (+$4.9bn). Soybeans (+52.2k), soymeal (+27.3k) & soyoil (+12.3k) all saw fresh longs and short covering.

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

China continues buying US SBO, with cnfrmd purchases nearing 2.0 MMT after another 340k MT sale. Strong crush margins (~$4/bu) and tighter US supplies lifted basis, while Brazil FOB Santos hit $489.27/MT (2.5 Y high). Focus now shifts to US weather and the pace of Chinese buying.

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

China bought the most U.S. soybeans even though they were the costliest origin. Rplcmnt cost (FOB + freight, ¢/bu over CBOT): Canada +180, Argie +188, Brz +230, PNW +270, US Gulf +285. When economics don’t explain the trade, politics often does likely ahead of Xi’s Sep U.S. visit

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Japan is shifting from a funding market to a destination for capital.

Higher JGB yields, BOJ QT, record fiscal issuance and weak long-end demand are tightening the plumbing. The risk isn’t Japan; it’s a repricing of global liquidity via a yen carry unwind.
#JapaneseYen #BoJ

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

DXY reclaimed 100, breaking to its highest level in months whereas US 10Y Treasury yields climbed back toward 4.5%, reinforcing the market’s repricing of a higher-for-longer Fed.

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

FOMC modestly leans hawkish. The Fed acknowledges geopolitical uncertainty but continues to emphasize resilient domestic fundamentals and persistent inflation. The focus now shifts to the SEP/dot plot and Chair Warsh’s press conference for guidance on the policy path ahead.

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

This was more than a hold—it marked a shift in communication and policy bias. The Fed is signaling higher for longer, with the bar for rate cuts significantly higher than markets had anticipated.

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

RBI’s hawkish hold, India’s FPI friendly debt measures and signs of slowing Fed QT support INR, bonds and gold structurally. Near term, today’s NFP is key: strong payrolls favor USD/yields; weak payrolls reinforce the liquidity-driven bullish case for gold.
#USDINR #RBIMPC #NFP

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

CBOT Jul’26 SBO remains in a bullish regime, supported by +ve trend structure and constructive options positioning. Strong support is clustered at 76–77.5, while the massive 80 call OI concentration continues to act as a gamma-driven upside magnet. Bias remains higher toward 80.

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Brent’s reversal on Iran de-escalation hopes is crushing the war premium across biofuel feedstocks, dragging CBOT soy oil lower via weaker renewable diesel economics. Yet D4 RINs continue higher, signaling tight compliance balances and resilient blending demand.
#Brent #CBOTZLN6

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Indonesia export centralization sparked initial macro supply-risk buying, lifting BMD FCPO futures. Markets priced tighter future exports.
But exporters rushed to liquidate stocks pre-policy and hedged via FCPO shorts, flipping flows.
#Indonesianexportreforms #BUMN #FCPO #KLCE

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

The BOJ’s $90B intervention is a high-stakes trap. Propping up the Yen creates a “double-bind”: buying Yen triggers a JGB bond rout, but saving bonds kills the currency. As interventions fade, the BOJ risks losing control, fueling a market liquidity shock.#USDJPY #BOJ #JGB

[Shubh Karira @Shubh_K05]

Today’s #Brent move reflected overlapping forces. Geopolitical risk drove the initial spike, a #JPY rally triggered carry-trade deleveraging, and macro funds monetised roll-yield longs for liquidity. Softer physical cargo premiums and expiry dynamics amplified the pullback.