Simon Nicholls

Father, quant researcher, blogger & medium editor, utilitarian, political pragmatist

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

We've all sorted worldometers' by deaths/1m.
e.g. in blue to Apr1

But, places are only comparable if they could have similar death rates. Even then NPI level/timing, seeding, etc, vary spread.

Are 1st🌍places comparable?
Beyond?
e.g. d/1m 50-59 vary hugely.

What to do?

1/14

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@elonmusk Why are you striving for, and celebrating, the redundancy of mankind?

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@PidginPosting @FraserNelson @MichaelRosenYes 👇
https://t.co/TODm7TZ5e5

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@PidginPosting @FraserNelson Thanks for your efforts... I fear my C19 analysis will just go ignored... I've resigned myself to the utter waste of time it was... the majority aren't interested in finding the most likely right answer, and @elonmusk refuses to create a plaform that rises these to the top... 🤷‍♂️

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@PidginPosting @FraserNelson Thanks for your efforts... I fear my C19 analysis will just go ignored... I've resigned myself to the utter waste of time it was... the majority aren't interested in finding the most likely right answer, and @elonmusk refuses to create a plaform that rises these to the top... 🤷‍♂️

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@SBaggsy @cjsnowdon @toadmeister You don’t get it.
1️⃣the averages reported are for how demand is met, not wind oversupply
2️⃣ there’s no need for storage, by 2030 oversupply will mean <5% of generation will be from gas as just a smoothing tool, which will work just fine until storage becomes a cheaper alternative

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@ScrewderiaF1 Lewis, as that era of car was the fastest… it’s a pointless race… put them all Lewis’ car, it is the best… 🏎️

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@BombadilJayJay @StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk Depends if we cut income tax… ideologically one could argue we should tax idleness, so tax wealth more and income less… but, reality is we already tax wealth quite heavily, e.g. council, stamp, capital gains, inheritance, etc… so not sure it should increase.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@ostschlampe @StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk Yes it is… have you ever actually studied economics?

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@Boredom43718552 @_HenryBolton It’s better than stamp… and the Exchequer can’t afford to lose tax revenue, so to get rid of a nasty tax it will need replacing with a less nasty one.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@JohnnyClamantis @_HenryBolton You can already offset your CGT against capital expenses in your property. Essentially the purchase price of the property is lifted by the capital expense amount.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@BombadilJayJay @StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk There is already a back door tax on families, stamp is a wealth tax on your 1st property. First time buyers shouldn’t pay this on their 1st buy. If we scrap stamp and set a CGT rate that raised a similar amount it’d make it fairer and with no friction if you’ve made no gain.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton @elonmusk Crucially Stamp Duty is inflationary too.
e.g. buy a house today that you need to sell tomorrow and you’ll want to sell it at what you paid + stamp to make your money back, which is instantly inflationary, and to my point adds market friction as others struggle to afford that.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@StronsayConsult @_HenryBolton Inflation isn’t just a function of govt spending, believing that means you’ve fallen down @elonmusk’s altright 🐇 hole.

Just think it through, basic supply and demand, if you constrain supply of an asset people need its prices will go up, Covid was a huge supply side squeeze.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@rickygervais Cut your carb intake for breakfast and lunch, fast until the afternoon, exercise on an empty stomach, never eat more than 5-10% sugar in anything, calorie restrict for the whole day as in eat slightly less than you need… get your body into Ketosis.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@DrAseemMalhotra You’ve just stated in your own tweet that you believe there may be evidence of a link between mRNA vaccines and cancer…

So your entire beef with the PM is he didn’t say “possible”… could you be more of dick?

… and who uses BREAKING at the top of their own tweets?

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@GoodwinMJ It’s far worse than that, if you include National Insurance, and that payed by your employer in that tax band, thanks to Rachel and Gordon, you only receive £23 for every £100 you earn.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@RachelReevesMP's Employer NI rise is an Income Tax rise, it's a "not on your payslip" stealth tax.

Gordon Brown ramped it up loads in the 2000s to pretend he was lifting your personal allowance.

Reality it you pay 13.8% @ £9k, and 41.8% @ £12750, not 20%👇

They're lying.

1/2

[Gavin Rice @gavinantonyrice]

Why is the government so expensive?

The answer isn't what you think.

It's demographics.

If you applied today's spending to the demographics of 20 years ago you could cut income tax by 13p in the pound.

The ageing society + shrinking workforce = expensive.

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@iluminatibot Emancipation… and expectation that families would have two incomes…

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@JamieBonkiewicz Ummm… Stalinist communism is not communism… Popper’s communism is in fact “everybody is rich”, it is meant to follow capitalism, and occurs when the cost of production goes to zero… we are in fact heading towards this…

[Simon Nicholls @sinichol]

@RupertLowe10 Yes, because that isn’t an over reaction…