The crypto market has just shifted into a very interesting phase. BTC is making a violent upside move today, but you shouldn't chase it blindly.
๐ข BTC right now;
BTC is around $77.7K, after trading as high as roughly $79.2K today. That is an exceptionally strong daily move.
More importantly, this isn't just a random pump:
1) BTC broke back above $70K with strong momentum.
2) U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded about $517M of inflows on Aug. 19, their strongest daily inflow since early May.
3) BTC is benefiting from short covering/liquidations + institutional demand + improving regulatory sentiment.
4) The broader crypto market is responding too. ETH, XRP and other major alts have been moving aggressively.
But here's the important part ๐
BTC has moved extremely fast.
The market went from roughly $64โ65K earlier this week to almost $80K today. That's roughly a 20% move in a matter of days.
So although the trend is bullish, the short-term risk/reward of entering after the pump is getting worse.
The technical picture is essentially:
Bullish trend โ very strong momentum โ short-term overextension โ pullback/retest likely.
One current technical assessment has BTC around the $76K resistance area, with $73K as an important near-term support and the ~$71.5K area as a major breakout level.
What I'm watching:
I divide BTC into three zones:
1) $79โ80K โ Major psychological/resistance zone.
If BTC convincingly breaks and holds above $80K, the market could enter another acceleration phase.
2) $73โ75K โ The area I'd be much more interested in watching for a healthy retest.
3) $70โ72K โ Very important. If BTC falls back below this area and can't reclaim it, today's breakout starts looking suspicious.
And the bigger crypto-market question...
The interesting thing is that BTC is leading the move, rather than BTC collapsing while alts randomly pump.
That's generally healthier.
But I wouldn't call this a confirmed full-blown altseason yet.
What I'd want to see is:
BTC breaks/holds $80K โ BTC dominance stabilizes โ ETH/BTC strengthens โ capital begins rotating into large-cap alts โ smaller caps follow.
That would be a much stronger indication that we're entering a broader market expansion.
Right now, my read is:
BTC: Bullish
Crypto market: Risk-on / recovering strongly
Short-term entry: Dangerous to chase โ ๏ธ
Medium-term structure: Increasingly bullish
$80K: Critical psychological level
And there's one thing I find particularly interesting: BTC is rallying while global equities are under pressure from rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns.
Reuters reports that Bitcoin has gained about 20% this week, its strongest weekly performance in more than two years.
That makes this move worth paying serious attention to.
Drop a comment if you want me to break down
exact support/resistance, liquidity zones, likely next targets, and where I'd personally look for a long or short setup.
Note: This isn't a financial advice and it's important you DYOR ๐
#BTC
$BTC
A friend asked me why 95%+ of traders still struggles to be profitable.
Hereโs was my honest answer ๐๐ผ
A successful trader has to put 3 things in check. And these 3 things must always be in check.
1) Technical Knowledge of the Market
This is understanding how the market works โ TA, PA, indicators, or whatever your approach may be.
This knowledge guides you toward finding good confluences to trade the market.
2) Risk Management
This is the part that makes you a trader, because this is where execution comes in.
Knowing the market and trading the market are two different things.
Everyone on the TL seems to know the market direction almost all the time. That's TA.
But most people are unable to turn that information into money.
Most people can make good analyses but manage risk wrongly. They gamble with their money, which might make them profitable in the short term.
But trading is a long-term game.
Over time, unmanaged risk will cost you more than money. It can cost you yourself.
And that brings us to number 3.
3) Psychology
This one is delicate. Very delicate.
The reason is that your psychology is heavily influenced by how well you handle the first two.
This requires you to fight yourself.
A war between patience and ego.
When people risk without control and lose money without control, it messes with their heads.
They start losing themselves.
And in trading, just like in chess, when you lose yourself โ the king โ that's checkmate.
Game over.
When your psychology is messed up, it becomes almost impossible to remain profitable.
You start making decisions that feel rational to you:
Taking profit too early.
Extending your SL.
Increasing your risk size to recover losses.
Forcing the market to give you money you didn't protect.
Forcing unrealistic RRs.
Then the "flip mentality" sets in:
"I'll go in with $100 and come out with $1M."
That's when you've completely lost touch with reality.
Trading is a business.
And you have to attach reality to it.
Let's say you run a business with โฆ1M.
You make โฆ300K profit and walk away with โฆ1.3M.
That's a 30% return.
You see it as profitable because you're being realistic.
But in trading, you go in with $100, come out with $130, and somehow feel like you didn't make money.
Why?
Because of the mindset you came into trading with.
You've been conditioned to believe that if $100 doesn't turn into $500+, then no real money was made.
That's you losing touch with reality.
So, the three things are sequential:
TA โ Risk Management โ Psychology.
You need technical knowledge before you can properly manage risk in the market.
And the understanding and consistent application of the first two gradually develop the third: good psychology.
You may already know how to manage risk from other businesses you've done, but if you don't understand the market you're trading, you still won't make money.
So yes, TA is the simplest of the three.
And ironically, TA is what 95% of traders focus on.
But you cannot consistently make money in a market you don't understand.
A teacher can help you understand the market.
A teacher can teach you risk management.
But the battle with your psychology?
You have to fight that one yourself.
As you were ๐ฝ