Brad Hartman

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

@Osint613 Trump is ready to trade these announcements

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

Iran controls the Strait / they gain leverage by the day.

The US has no bargaining chips to force their hand on the nuclear issue or Strait tolls.

If the US were in such a great position, why would it need to offer 6B in frozen assets for Iran agreeing to no tolls?

It wouldn’t. That tells you everything.

Structure dictates outcomes and the structure and explicit language of the MOU show Iran gained huge advantages (oil revenues, time to resupply / regroup its forces).

And the US gained….a partial opening of the Strait to alleviate oil prices (which was open before the war) and the right to possibly negotiate on a nuclear issue that has yet to be negotiated on. Clearly - that’s a winning hand!

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

The chance it returns to normal by January 1, 2027 is less than 1%.

Sea mines -> not cleared

Iran tolls -> de facto new normal

Omani / Iranian shallow routes -> produce 40-50 ships a day max vs 125-130 pre-war

And that doesn’t even account for significant likelihood of both MOU breakdown and resumption of kinetic activity.

A trickle of oil - post the glut of trapped ships. Should be enough to power the global economy….

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

Not investment advice but just my opinion.

I believe large export capability, distillate focused US refiners report Q2 earnings in late July / early August.

At $50-$55 sustained cracks, higher than expected capture rates (60-75% depending on refiner) and high utilization, q2 earnings should be historic with a likelihood of increasing cracks ($60-$75) providing a sustained base for re-rating of the equities.

I believe August and September are unique timeframes to look at call options for PSX, MPC. VLO is a great refiner but options are more expensive and therefore less convex.

Refiners will eventually peak due to demand destruction but could see incredible sparks in early August.

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

@MJazanovich @rickjeff78 At some point yes - but hard to say when. Would rather focus on the sure choke point vs. bet when China / others return to market

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

@coinbureau Whirrr of the money printer. Debasement

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

11% return just to break even.
Money supply is growing super fast.
Debt is debasing currency.

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

@hicasamadim 27. Anything to the power 0 reverts to 1.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Japan's central bank balance sheet is falling at the quickest pace in history as they attempt to stop the the rapid devaluation of the Japanese Yen.

So far it has been ineffective at keeping the Japanese Yen above 160:1 USD and they appear to be losing control of their yield curve on Japanese Treasuries.

As Japan is one of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, it's unclear what happens when Japan is forced to accelerate the drawdown in their balance sheet further.

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

@StealthQE4 Yup - not opening anytime soon. #leverage

[Ihtesham Ali @ihtesham2005]

David Sacks broke down on the All-In podcast why Alex Karp's CNBC outburst was not a meltdown but a warning, and then laid out exactly how Anthropic is running the same playbook Microsoft used to kill an entire generation of software companies.

The media called Karp unhinged.

Sacks said the opposite. Karp was describing what enterprise customers actually want.

Control over their compute, their models, their data, their alpha. Ownership of the means of production.

Then he named the proof.

Anthropic's chief product officer sat on Figma's board. He did not resign until 3 days before Anthropic launched Claude Design, a direct competitor.

Figma's stock is down 50 percent this year.

Sacks called it a pattern. Claude Code, Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, Claude Financial. Every vertical where a customer built value on top of Anthropic's model got absorbed by Anthropic itself.

Word Perfect and Lotus 123 got replaced by Excel and Word.

Nobody who went to bed with Microsoft in the 80s woke up with their business intact.

What do you think?

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

I think I’m gonna apply for an Axios Middle East role. My best lead attempts for market manipulation today at 5:30pm:

@BarakRavid please tell me how I’m doing.

“Two US admin sources tell me that Putin discussed releasing secret Russian SPR reserves with Trump to commemorate USA 250 birthday”

“I’ve spoken with sources in the admin that confirm China is contemplating deal with US to stabilize oil markets by releasing exports to markets to ease gasoline and distillate pricing”

“With their former Ayatollah dead, multiple US sources confirm the Iranians are ready to surrender their nuclear material and sign the US deal. Peace is imminent and amazing MOU progress during this past weekend.”

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

I wonder what announcement will come out at 5:30pm ET today before the Sunday futures market opens.

@BarakRavid we await your “administration sources” that report the Houthi’s have agreed to a ceasefire with Trump officials.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: A cargo vessel came under attack by the Houthis 30NM southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen, in the first attack in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area since the war began, per UKMTO.

This follows Russia's Medvedev yesterday describing the Bab el-Mandeb as Iran's "thermonuclear weapon in reserve for the next war."

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

@ThierryBorgeat Until Warsh implements 1940’s style YCC and unleashes bank regs that allow commercial banks to buy unlimited short term bonds to inflate away the deficit.

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

Uh oh spaghetti-o’s

[471TO @TOzgokmen]

Everything is open like in a nude beach; oil is gushing.

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: The U.S. just ran a full military operation to move two ships through the Strait of Hormuz — one inbound, one outbound — after commercial vessels were turning back.

The inbound Greek bulk carrier "MINOAN SKY" crossed the U.S.-backed Omani corridor today with AIS on — the first visible transit via that route. The U.S. flew E-3G AWACS and multiple military aircraft for four hours to cover the transit. The outbound oil tanker "NAVIG8 MACALLISTER" then crossed under the same heavy air cover, still sailing hugging Oman's coast.

Before the war: 125–140 ships daily. In the last 24 hours: just two via the U.S.-backed route — while multiple others turned back or switched to Iran's designated northern route.

The U.S. can escort ships with AWACS cover. But this is not sustainable. Two ships with full military cover is not a "surge" — it's a warning. The Strait is moving on Iran's terms, not America's.

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Commodity guru Jeff Currie on the squeeze on oil refining capacity:

“If I was an alien who came down to planet Earth, and I looked at this market, I’m going to say, ‘You’re out of oil refining capacity.’ That’s a lot worse than being out of crude.

STAY LONG GAS AND DIESEL.

[Brad Hartman @SigEStructure]

You don’t say…..the Red Sea Strait as extra leverage. Face meet uppercut…coming in the next round of kinetic escalation.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Russia's Dmitry Medvedev:

Iran, instead of nuclear weapons, discovered another weapon that is no weaker than nuclear, the Strait of Hormuz.

This is what the discussions revolve around, reaching agreements on how this strait will function going forward.

Iranian authorities also possess a "thermonuclear weapon", the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

If it is blocked, all oil shipments and other transport will be locked down.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely

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