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Fear is at 15 -- near the lowest this cycle -- but BTC is holding above 62,900 and still up 2% on the day.

When the mood is this grim but the price keeps climbing, the price usually wins. A slip below 62,100 would change my mind.

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Saylor just hinted at another Bitcoin buy while Strategy sits 11.7B underwater. Meanwhile fear is at 15, near the lowest this cycle.

Price is up but the mood hasn't caught up. That gap tends to close with more upside, not less.

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BTC jumped nearly 4% today to 63,200 but open interest on OKX dropped 2.45% in six hours. Traders are cashing out bets, not adding new ones.

That mix of rising price and falling conviction usually means the move needs a breather.

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→ https://t.co/mvnk4MRw81

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CoinDesk flagged something worth knowing: big institutions are selling into this bounce near 60K, not buying like they did in February.

Without that ETF money coming back, this rally runs on fumes. I'd need a push above 62,200 to change my mind.

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Don't expect fireworks tonight. BTC is at 61,570 and open interest on OKX just dropped 1.3% in six hours -- traders are closing bets, not adding them.

That usually means the bounce is cooling off. A drift between 61,000 and 62,200 looks most likely.