Siltas

LT investing & insight.

$AMZN $TSM $SONY $INTC $RDDT

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

Easy math:

$TSM Forward PE less than S&P 500 forward PE = buy.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

All the sudden buzz around $SONY is a good cover call on how short term both the market and FinX is.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

$TTWO GTA 6 is basically a timed exclusive for $SONY PlayStation who also gets a 30% cut of $ without having to spend the $2B bill to make it. Ntdo/Xbox comparatively irrelevant in proportional sales. Just wanted to clarify that if the market fixates on memory prices and drops SP

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

@ChrisCamillo First time playing game releases or something?

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

@joecarlsonshow These people just want to see things burn even if its at the detriment to something they would enjoy. Sad life indeed.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

@davey_juice This account just spams this same tweet with a different ticker.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

@jim_kulus A convoluted, cross-console unweighted stat where a 1k-copy post-launch indie disc is the same as Hogwarts Legacy or Black Flag ( multi-times the sales volume of most of the PS5 list combined which btw doesnt even have half the physical titles) Buy some discs for my bag please.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

Good insight. $SONY is taking the perception blow here but every game developer is rubbing their hands at the bps bump this will give to their margins and costs. The HC segment is one of the most tribalist crybaby consumer groups who spend more time whining than buying.

[Jacob Navok @JNavok]

There is a clear, yet never discussed omission in the cries over PlayStation ending physical media. And it also reveals how self-centered these players are – even as they claim Sony to be some hive minded capitalist evil.

As is now well known, when a physical game is sold both the publisher and platform receive less than when a digital entitlement is sold.

At the same time, the players spend the same – and as they say, players actually get more than when buying digital.

Where is the “missing” money? It’s spent on manufacturing a disc, shipping a disk, managing costly returns, defective disks, stolen disks, etc. And that’s before accounting for grey market sales.

What happens normally when a version of the same product is less profitable than an otherwise identical good? It is sold for more.

What happens normally when a version caters to a hyper-passionate niche? It is sold for more.

What happens when a version – again, to the claims of its ardent buyers – has more value than the (allegedly) inferior alternative? It is sold for more.

This is point number one. The very players who are offended by the loss of an option that they, a self-professedly valuable customer group that is actually marginal on the whole… refuse to actually pay for their preference.

In fact, they expect everyone else to pay for that preference.

Gamers will whine saying “it’s good business to practice to do well by your fans.” Sure.

But it’s not “good business�� to monetize your most passionate players the least, divert profits to disk makers and retailers not gamemakers or platform subsidizers, let alone offer the “best” version of your product at the worst economics.

If Sony were the capitalist evil physical media fans claim it to be… well, there’s an easy answer!

If Sony could make as much, or more money from those goods, well then by definition… they would do so!

If these customers were, in fact, as valuable as they profess… Sony wouldn’t do this. But these players are in fact Sony's lease valuable customers. And those who purchase a physical disc via resale aren't even Sony's customers.

If these customers valued physical as much as they profess… they would pay more! The issue is players want their cake and to eat it to. They refuse to put their wallets where their mouth is. Instead, they want Sony to pick-up the check.

And it’s not just Sony. Small studios don't do physical because it is expensive. Even CDPR has to PAY publishers like WB to make and distribute physical discs on their behalf, meaning their margins are even worse than those of Sony or WB with their own games. But again, players just want to say – "deal with it!" Indefinitely!

And that’s the problem .

There is a global omni-industry (and omni-consumer) abandonment of physical media. Games used to be a tiny fraction of a very large global disk manufacturing and global disk drive manufacturing business.

It’s all going away.

That means games hold more and more and more of the cost burden.

Sony didn’t abandon Blu-Ray (a format they pioneered) in 2024 to screw gamers, they abandoned it because not enough people bought Blu-Rays.

And that same dynamic means ALL the factories that built Blu-Ray drives and Blu-Ray risks sit mostly unused, costlier per unit than ever.

But gamers? Again, unwilling to cover their share. Happy to receive the subsidy of the global supply chain of the 2000s and 2010s, but now that it disagrees with them, they still refuse to pick up the tab. What narcissism.

Do you want to be pro dev? Then tell Sony you will cover the extra costs of physical in your own pocket. If you're unwilling to do this, you're selfish, demanding the rest of us cover the cost of your hobby.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

@jim_kulus ”Take the hardware platform (PC/console/handheld) fully offline and remain offline until the test is completed. Freshly install the game. Use a local profile that has not been connected to any online services like PlayStation Network etc.” Lmao like I said most ass consumer demo

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

Not to mention: you haven't been able to play most games with the pure disk in years. You're day one patching and updating it before you see the start menu. It's pure perception and vibes and if consumers actually cared physical copy spend would see it.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

There is no reason to wonder why the industry keeps catering to every other cohort more and more. Noise just doesn't equal the actual spend and if you're a smaller company and sneeze wrong you're cooked.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

@marc_slans its about god damn time.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

Today is a good (at least ST) reminder why position sizing is so important $AMZN $SONY $RDDT $RBLX

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

"Railroads" are the laziest mental model for an asset which's use cases are still multiplying on a monthly basis. Then slap on the fact that hyperscalers are building much more than just pure compute — custom silicon, power contracts, models, and the complex application stack.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

A railroad is a fixed asset: moves mass from A to B. Its utility per mile is capped on day one and never improves.

Railroads have mostly inelastic demand: cheaper freight didn't make anyone ship 10x more grain. Every price decline in compute will expand consumption.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

@KevinTRod Sony doesnt decide sales on the store. The publisher/dev does.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

@brivael We live in a society.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

We already know $RBLX fear is overstated; TD Cowen CCU +10% WoW read in late June, strongest in 2.5 yrs. Also structurslly way smaller than ATT, a one-time gate: once a user's verified, they're verified, and no cap on spending. Real trough. Different ST focused shape of problem.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

Monthly $RBLX: Build launch delivers another tangible AI proof point from what I flagged in June. A structural long term AI winner, it just sits entirely outside today's flashy AI trade for bottlenecks in the physical layer.

[Siltas @SiltasInvest]

$META 2022 crash ofc wasn’t just RL spend. Apple’s ATT change blew a $10B hole in the ad pipes which the market priced as just the beginning. $RBLX age verification rollout is the same shape: external mandate, bookings trough guided through Q2-Q3, priced like permanent damage.