Zoegas Macchiato Operation

A guy from Sweden.

Coffee-affiliated media.

Pussy in bio: 😺

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@sopjap I do enjoy the fantasy of Russia suddenly deciding to launch a naval invasion of Ireland due to Putin having a craving for Guiness.

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@AlternativH Tyvärr verkar en vilt-gårdare skjutit Bajenälgen💔

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@LeclairLar @samlymatters Caligula was accomplished and celebrated before falling out. Some of the infrastructure he built is still standing today.

* The historical Caligula might even have been a victim of a smear campaign, rather than the "crazy emperor" recorded in history. *

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@mathiasced Blir ändå lite grumligt. Om vi skall leta motsvarigheter - vilket är tveksamt då "högern" och "vänstern" inte är två sidor av samma mynt - återfinns Alinias motsvarigheter inom den utomparlamentariska vänstern.

Uteslutna V-medlemmar bör jämföras med uteslutna SD-medlemmar.

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@AlternativH Return of the king?

[The Tectonic @thetect0nic]

🧵

New analysis from Middle East Spectator via Nawfal: the Apache may have been brought down not by a standard Shahed-136 but by the Shahed-358 - also known as the SA-67.

The distinction matters enormously.

The Shahed-136 is a fire-and-forget loitering munition programmed to GPS coordinates - it doesn't seek aircraft.

The Shahed-358 is a different weapon:

Length: ~2.7 meters. Weight: ~50kg.
Propulsion: rocket boost + turbojet, Mach ~0.6.
Seeker: infrared, optimized specifically for slow, low-flying targets - like helicopters.

This is not a weapon that stumbles into an Apache. This is a weapon designed to find and kill helicopters.

If the Shahed-358 was used, the question of intentionality becomes far less ambiguous.

Iran operates the Shahed-358 from its island positions in the Strait. The Apache was operating near those islands.

Still under official investigation. But the weapon profile matches.

🧵 ⬇️

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Many people believe that INSURANCE is the reason that vessels are not navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This is simply not true, and something that @mercoglianos has addressed repeatedly throughout this conflict.

But there is a far more challenging hurdle that will need to be overcome: sanctions and terror financing laws.

Vessels are able to secure insurance, AND that insurance can cover transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Now is it more expensive than it was pre-conflict? Of course, but we're still talking about rates generally between 1-4%. If that is every journey perpetually? No, that's clearly an issue. But for a single journey to get a hundred million dollar vessel, loaded with hundreds of millions of dollars of cargo, alongside the captain and crew out of a war zone? Easy choice.

... And that's what Greek shipping tycoon Evangelos Marinakis thought as well when he said he would be happy to pay up to $200,000 per vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Now why wouldn't this work?

ASSUMING that you paid Iran via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), also known as the Tehran Toll Booth, you would be able to navigate under the assumption that Iran would not launch drones or missiles at your vessel. Is that a guarantee? Of course not, but this eliminates the "morality risk" element that many other people say is the "real" reason why vessels are unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Insurance is not an issue. Crew safety, assuming a toll was paid, would not inherently be an issue... So why aren't vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz in large numbers?

Sanctions and Terror Financing laws.

As it currently stands, this is the single greatest barrier as to why we are not seeing transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and why we will NOT see transit through the Strait of Hormuz the second an MOU is agreed upon by the United States and Iran.

Speaking to @abcnews today, I spoke to this risk, and why it's not just a "US problem":

"It really is kind of the single greatest barrier, because there's sanctions across various different countries, the US, UK, Canada, Australia, EU, and also terrorist-financing laws that are significant. You'd have, potentially, the individual who owns the company or who is operating the vessel, they would be personally sanctioned."

See the issue here? Many people have suggested, "Well if it REALLY is that great of an emergency, vessels will just pay the toll and risk sanctions".

Okay... but WOULD they? Would they PERSONALLY be willing to be sanctioned by the United States, EU, UK, Canada, and Australia? Effectively be personally cut off from the ENTIRE Western world? I don't think so.

Okay, okay, okay, Brett. But... what if the sanctions were just... not enforced! The governments just "looked the other way".

Enter terror financing laws. With the exception of the United Kingdom, the IRGC is a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) across the jurisdictions of the US, EU, Canada, and Australia. While carveouts CAN be made for sanctions, although it is unclear whether or not they would be, nor that all jurisdictions would do so simultaneously as would be necessary, terror financing laws are a far greater hurdle to roll back.

This is EXACTLY what we saw take place when the United States unsanctioned Iranian oil under General License U in the early days of the Iran War. Roughly 180M barrels became effectively "sanction-free"... But the primary buyer was still overwhelmingly China... and India.

Why? Because, while the sanctions were not applicable, purchasing said oil would be in violation of terror financing laws across the US, EU, Canada, and Australia. Providing "payment" or "material support" (meaning no, you can't just "barter") to the IRGC comes with the lovely penalty of PRISON.

"Okay, okay, okay, Brett... But what if the governments of the US, UK, EU, Canada, and Australia didn't enforce sanctions AND the governments of the US, EU, Canada, and Australia didn't enforce terror financing laws... simultaneously..."

Wonderful question! Viola! Problem solved!

... Nope.

Under the terror financing laws of the United States and Canada, private citizens can bring forth lawsuits against those who finance terror organizations. And that's the nail in the coffin.

So while vessels may WANT to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. While vessels may be WILLING to make payments to Iran or the IRGC, the laws not just of the US, but also the UK, EU, Canada, and Australia, make this an impossibility due to the ability for these payments to violate not just the sanctions and terror financing laws brought forth by the GOVERNMENT... but because the governments can't stop private CITIZENS from bringing forth terror-financing lawsuits.

https://t.co/oV9p1KXXTo

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@_ZachFoster I kind of like this guy. Most IRL supervillains are just so boring, but this guy is just unapologetically evil for the sake of being evil. It's kind of refreshing.

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@SocialistMMA

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@toots2uk @LibyaLiberty @SJview Fun fact: According to Lucas himself, the US is the Empire and the rebels are the Vietcong.

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@MyLordBebo The streets of European cities are filled with beggars. Why not give them this money instead of the globetrotting one?

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@roqchams Nothing really. It just tells me that Israelis are sociopaths.

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@oskar_mansson Känns som att förmågan/viljan att verifiera uppgifter minskat betänkligt. Inom all form av journalistik.

Är det en följd av "klickjakten" eller något annat?

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@AJEnglish

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@HenrikJalalian Det pågår ett folkmord. Om människor blir otrygga av att andra vill stoppa detta får de gott vara otrygga.

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@GovMikeHuckabee

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@Antimatter24612 @cogatonline The automatic translation is getting more accurate everyday!👍

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@mazzenilsson Blir minst sagt oroad över våra andra ortodoxa samfund. Kommer en gudstjänst i Etiopisk-ortodoxa kyrkan i Hagsätra bevakas av SÄPO om Addis Abeba gräver i Lundin Oil?

[Zoegas Macchiato Operation @SimonAsHimself]

@mazzenilsson Kriterierna för "statskontrollerad" tycks extremt lösa för utländska religiösa samfund. Ett patriarkat är givetvis underställt landets lagar, men då är ju allt utom kriminell verksamhet "statskontrollerat".

Tidigare har staten gått åt Eritreansk-ortodoxa kyrkan av samma skäl.