Simon Gleave

Head of Analysis at @GracenoteData | Fan of sport, particularly Rugby, Football, Cricket | Cambridge, Palace & Utrecht | Love Film&Music | My views are my own

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

It is very difficult to leave this platform completely, deleting your account along the way. However, I am considering it very seriously now.

In the meantime, you'll find me posting on Blue Sky for sports data stuff, movies, music etc: https://t.co/t0GRXUzJwE

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

@ramsaymatt It is all about the Swindon, Notts County and Salford home matches Matt. Get good results in those - by which I mean not losing any and ideally picking up 7 points - and automatic promotion is ours.

Lose any of them and we could be looking at the playoffs.

15-18pts needed

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

@OlympicStatman Yes, this is overperforming a pretty low bar, particularly in regard to world rankings.

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

Over- and underperformance in this year's Six Nations:

Against bookmaker handicaps:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 +27
🇮🇹 +19
☘️ +13
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 -4
🇫🇷 -18
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 -37

Against handicaps derived from World Rugby ranking:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 +32
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 +31
🇫🇷 +13
🇮🇹 -1.5
☘️ -24
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 -50.5

#SixNations

[Incarnation8 @jackstone281]

@CharlieFelix I don’t want to be “elitist” but the claim professed by many that England should have just played out the final phases in their half, separates the people that know and the people that don’t know, you know?

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

Love this. Very clear.

[Kevin Millar @topofthemoonGW]

All remaining permutations for the 3 countries with a chance of winning this season's @SixNationsRugby.

96 possible combinations of match outcomes:

44 favour @FranceRugby;
37 favour @Scotlandteam;
13 favour @IrishRugby;
2 come down to the winning margin between Ire & Sco.

[Sam Larner @SamLStandsUp]

In today's Substack I look at why England are struggling in the opposition 22. Have they lost their scoring touch or misplaced some luck?

https://t.co/aPSWauZvTv

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

Over/underperformance in this year's #SixNations

Compared to odds
🇮🇹Italy +25 points difference
🇫🇷France +15
☘️Ireland +13
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland -7
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿Wales -8
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England -38

Compared to World Rankings
🇫🇷France +39.5
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland +18.5
🇮🇹Italy +10.5
☘️Ireland -1.5
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿Wales -18
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England -49

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

To add to this excellent overview from Brett, kicking metres is still the key stat.

The team with the higher kicking metres has won eight out of nine matches in this Six Nations. The only exception is Wales v Scotland which arguably Wales did enough to win.

[Brett Igoe @brettruganalyst]

One for the Rugby nerds (like me!) - AFTER 9 GAMES - what metrics give you a better chance of WINNING a #SixNations game. - 22m Points per entry & Tackle % success seems to be the leading stats in the 9 games so far.

[J.Wallusch @J52Wallusch]

Just arrived,
@SamLStandsUp's masterpiece on falling in love with kicking, numbers, and all other things.

PS. Chuffed to be a member of the #Bajad8ta group!

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

@SamLStandsUp @simonrug @ValleysVegas It is never about kicking or box kicking, it is about kicking effectively.

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

Olympic medal tables can work any way that you want them to. Most media decided to order them on gold but that doesn't mean that everyone has to.

Every method is flawed anyway and the best is probably a weighted medal count so that all medals do count in some way.

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

Except the US doesn't win most medals at Winter Olympics.

2010 is the only time in the last 90-odd years in fact.

[Danny Carpenter @Fantasyfbguru2]

@beckytaylorgill Olympic medal count has always been based on gold medals all over the world except in the U.S.

Easy to gain the most medals when you also send the biggest delegation.

Gold is all that matters to the rest of the world! But we want participation trophies!

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

Better to say "In 14 Borthwick away Tests.....", otherwise open to accusations of making things look worse than they are by conflating total Tests with away wins.

Away wins against the best teams are very tough to achieve - for anyone.

[Will Kelleher @willgkelleher]

A stat for England to ponder this week.

In 41 Borthwick Tests they have won 7 away games (not neutral!)

✅ Wins v Wales x2, Argentina x2 Italy, Japan and USA.

❌ Defeats v Ireland x3, NZ x2, France & Scotland.

Time for a chest-out scalp.
@TimesSport
https://t.co/56KbgxutdV

[J.Wallusch @J52Wallusch]

Kick Blocking Masterclass with Matt Fagerson

Three crucial numbers:
11.5 metres,
1.74 second
and
0 players on his way

#SCOvENG #GuinnessM6N

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

Really enjoying this. Very enlightening, particularly the chapters on kicking and defence (so far).

Apparently some bloke in Holland was the first person to publicly talk about 22 entries after noting them down in an Irish pub while watching the Six Nations.

[Sam Larner @SamLStandsUp]

The best way to enjoy Attacking the Space? Possibly.

If you haven't got your copy and you want to understand what's happening under the surface of the Six Nations, this is the book for you.

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

@NASAgirl67 All good here. Hope you are well too.

The fact that I once went to a World Cup football match with someone who became the Director of Engineering at NASA remains a great story to tell to people!

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

@NASAgirl67 Hi Julie, not sure that you have time for trivial nonsense like this question but I was wondering if you might know what sort of tickets we had to Brazil v Holland at the 1994 World Cup and what they cost (I am guessing $75).

Next year's WC tix are crazy prices!

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

Once you realise that public reactions to England matches are going to be extreme, it helps you to not get caught up in the hyperbole (one way or the other).

England are neither as good as they were purported to be before this game nor as bad as they are supposed to be now.

[Sam Larner @SamLStandsUp]

I think there has been some overreactions to England's performance yesterday. It wasn't good and Scotland were excellent which compounded it. But, the joy of the 6Ns is that anyone off the boil should be able to be beaten by someone on a red hot day.

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

@Gielsbrouwer Not sure that I will be doing that this year. Hope all is well with you, it has been a long time!

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

It is very difficult to leave this platform completely, deleting your account along the way. However, I am considering it very seriously now.

In the meantime, you'll find me posting on Blue Sky for sports data stuff, movies, music etc: https://t.co/t0GRXUzJwE

[Simon Gleave @SimonGleave]

@colintrainor @ramsbobby40 How nice of both of you. I did used to post on all of that so it could be.

[David Sumpter @Soccermatics]

The honest story of how data is used inside football clubs...

First in a series.
https://t.co/ZcMQCLvAzF