Simon Tilford

Economist. Director, Oracle Partnership.
@simontilford.bsky.social

[Simon Tilford @SimonTilford]

@michaelxpettis Why doesn't this - capital inflows financing capital outflows rather than exceeding them - not happen in the US? Is it because US assets provide a higher return & are more attractive to investors? Do you think the € could challenge $ without the EZ having to run a c/a deficit?

[Simon Tilford @SimonTilford]

@Brad_Setser Why doesn't this - capital inflows just financing capital outflows rather than exceeding them by a large margin - not happen in the US? Is it because US assets provide a higher return and are therefore more attractive to investors?

[Guntram Wolff @GuntramWolff]

German debt has just become a lot safer. First, security of the continent increases. German economy depends on it. Second, German economy improves after the self-inflicted under-investment of the last decades comes to an end.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

@HongshenZhu a) I am definitely not arguing for a fiscal consolidation -- rather the contrary, i want a fiscal expansion at the central government level
b) Export dependence fell from 2008 to 2018 but it clearly has been on its way back up since then. net exports added 1.5 pp to growth in 24

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

3/9
But where he sees agency as mainly on the US side, I strongly disagree. One obvious reason is that foreign capital pours into the US not just when times are good, but also when times are bad. US deficits are almost permanent and they don't reflect US economic conditions.

[Mark Blyth @MkBlyth]

For those who always thought truth a relativistic concept, or find facts burdened with an ontological bias, fear not, the wisdom of crowds is coming to set it all right. Enjoy the free for all: https://t.co/bSx5sH8L2v

[Richard Jones @RichardALJones]

The most important plot for understanding UK politics & economics now - the collapse in productivity growth since the mid-2000s.
Nothing that governments of last 15 years have done has made a material difference, & if we continue doing the same things we'll get the same result.

[Philip Oldfield @SustainableTall]

8 socially rented homes, in Mallorca

Beautiful double-vaulted stone structure. Super low heating and cooling energy needs of 7.5kWh/m2. And a low embodied carbon of 297kgCO2e/m2

We should be building far more like this!

[Philip Oldfield @SustainableTall]

One of the reasons Spanish social housing is *so good*, is architects have abandoned the ‘double-loaded corridor’

Instead apartments are accessed from decks or terraces, which creates dual aspects homes that benefit from more sun and cross ventilation

[Nicholas Boys Smith @boys_nicholas]

This goes to the heart of the deep problem with British planning, development & governance culture. Unclear quality asks. Totally dependent on consultants & lawyers on high day rates. Nothing is clear and nothing is ever anyone’s fault. Natural England demand mitigation & …

[Jan Rosenow @janrosenow]

Low electricity prices are a prerequisite for high levels of electrification.

There are no high electrification regions with high electricity prices.

Great chart from @RockyMtnInst

[John O’Brennan @JohnOBrennan2]

This is the Austrian Chancellor, grossly lying about Serbia’s ‘progress’ in EU accession negotiations.

It is shameful that these folks are trying to bring another Orban into the EU, against all the evidence that democratic erosion in Serbia is getting worse.

[Gideon Rachman @gideonrachman]

Actually - much to its discredit - the Israeli government was perfectly happy to see Assad stay in power. Still, interesting to see the horseshoe theory in action as far right and far left unite around the usual fetid conspiracy theories

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

My retweet of Ling-Ling Wei's comment that China's economy is actually in a bit of trouble prompted a number of these kinds of comments.

I hadn't realized quite how many people still put faith in the official Chinese numbers.

So some data highlighting signs of weakness

1/

[Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk]

It took 30 years for Poland’s share of electricity from coal to go from 96% in 1990 to 68% in 2020. But Poland will get to 0 coal by 2032 -and its 2nd largest utility just announced it’s exiting coal by 2030

Dumping fossil fuels slowly, then all at once https://t.co/pftvvB2HfY

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

From the @WSJ article, “Prices Won’t Stop Falling in China, and Beijing Is Grasping for Solutions: Companies are pumping out goods amid falling prices, creating vicious cycle that is eroding confidence.”

#economy #china #markets #econtwitter

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

FT: "Just under half of Britain’s very highest paying jobs were located in London 30 years ago. Today that figure is almost 75 per cent.

Is London the cause of the UK's Dutch disease?

https://t.co/L8C73yriET via @ft

[Chris Grey 🇺🇦 @chrisgreybrexit]

And turns out they know this, as one of the same authors had this piece last January. Only now have they decided that it as something to do with Labour.