Simon Anderson

Property Developer & Investor, Forex Trader, football & cricket fan, and run ragged Father! My tweets are for my use only & never financial advice.

[Stowmarket Town FC @stowtownfc]

dates for your diary 👇
🗓 25th April – Mental Health Awareness Match
🗓 3rd May – Youth Presentation Day
🗓 4th May – EJA Trials
🗓 7th May – Pitchside Pistons
🗓 9th May – Senior Presentation Evening
🎟 15th May – Race Night
🎯 3rd July – Darts Exhibition with Keith Deller

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@CRUDEOIL231 @jam_croissant Great explanation, appreciate you taking the time to write it up. 👍

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

What is the North Sea physic mkt, and how should the gap between the paper and physical markets be resolved?

Every time I post about the physical market, I see a lot of complaints about why oil prices aren't rising further. Many ppl even criticize me, claiming I’m not explaining things properly.

First, I’ll summarize the basic components of the North Sea market.

ICE Brent Futures: A financially settled paper contract used primarily for broad directional hedging and speculation without the intention of physical delivery.

EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physical): A swap that acts as a bridge, allowing a trader to convert a paper futures position into a physical cargo contract.

Forward Brent: A standardized OTC physical swap for future delivery. It represents actual oil but remains non-dated bc the exact loading schedule is not yet determined.

Dated Brent: The global benchmark price for physical crude. It is assessed daily by agencies like Platts based on actual trades of the most competitive grade within the BFOET+WTI basket, triggered once specific loading dates are confirmed (typically 10-30 days prior).

CFD: A short-term swap representing the price difference between Forward Brent and Dated Brent. It is used to plot the physical forward curve and assess whether the market is in contango or backwardation.

DFL (Dated to Frontline): A swap that links the physical Dated Brent assessment directly to the front-month ICE Futures contract, managing exposure between the physical and financial markets.

Diff (Grade Basis): The premium or discount applied to a specific physical cargo relative to the Dated Brent benchmark. Driven by crude quality, logistics, and refinery demand, this unhedgeable spread is where physical traders generate profit.

This alone should be enough. From there, I’ll explain how the gap between the paper market and the physical market actually closes.

A massive divergence between Dated Brent (physic) and ICE Brent futures (paper) typically indicates acute near-term physical tightness relative to forward expectations.

If Dated Brent remains at $120-130/bbl leading into the expiration of the front-month ICE Brent futures contract (currently around $100/bbl), the futures contract must converge toward the physical price.

The convergence is not optional; it is mathematically enforced by the exchange's settlement rules and market arbitrage. This operates through three primary mechanisms:

1) Cash Settlement via the ICE Brent Index

ICE Brent futures are cash-settled upon expiration and do not involve physical delivery. Expiring contracts are settled against the ICE Brent Index.

The Index is a calculated average of trading activity in the relevant physical Forward BFOET(Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll)+WTI Midland market during the final trading days of the futures contract.

Bc Forward Brent and Dated Brent are intrinsically linked, a physical market sustaining $130 will generate an ICE Brent Index near $130.

Consequently, any futures positions left open at expiration are forcibly settled at this higher Index price.

2) The Arbitrage Channel (EFP Mechanism)

If a $30 spread exists between paper and physical markets, traders will immediately exploit the arbitrage using the EFP mechanism.

Traders buy the undervalued ICE Brent futures at $100 and simultaneously sells a physical Forward Brent cargo at $130. They execute an EFP to swap their long paper futures position into a long physical Forward position.

The newly acquired long physical position cancels out their short physical position, locking in a profit (minus the EFP swap cost). To execute this arbs on a large scale, traders must aggressively buy ICE futures. This massive purchasing volume forces the futures price up until the gap closes and the arb window is eliminated.

3) Forced Short Covering

Market participants holding short positions in the ICE Brent futures market face extreme risk if the physical market disconnects to the upside.

Knowing the contract is destined to cash-settle against a $130 physical Index, paper shorts cannot afford to hold their $100 positions into expiration.

They are forced to buy back their futures contracts to close their positions before the expiry date.

This forced buying—often resulting in a short squeeze—accelerates the upward momentum of the ICE futures price, driving it into alignment with the physical market.

Through the combination of final index settlement and active EFP arbs, the paper market is structurally tethered to physical reality as expiration approaches.

#oott #iran

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@MaaS2500 @GxTradez Thank you

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@GxTradez Thank you appreciate the response 👍

[Earnings Whispers @eWhispers]

Here's an early look at Q4 2025 earnings season. $META $AMZN $PLTR $CRWV and a few others still haven't scheduled earnings yet, so any date you see for those companies are just guesses, and they are left off this calendar.

https://t.co/My2Eq16qS8

$NFLX $TSM $MSFT $SOFI $JPM $AAPL $TSLA $AMD $DAL $GOOGL $UNH $HOOD $INTC $WFC $MS $ARM $APP $ISRG $GS $PG $ORLY $C $BLK $COP $ALAB $BA $JBHT $JNJ $SNDK $T $RF $PEP $BAC $AA $HOMB $PFE $NDAQ $SIFY $SYF $STT $SLB $PNC $IBKR $IBM $FCX

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@I_Am_The_ICT Gotta love these animal patterns! 🤣

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@MattLeech Will this apply For existing accounts?

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@blancolivier2

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@traderkane

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@finessee_Fx Buyers exceeding Sellers! 🤣

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@Hydra_Thahmid Right in there with you! ✌️
Was a beauty!

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@TTrades_edu @toodegrees Breaker

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@JunoTrading Right in there with you bro! 👊

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@LethalityTrader Nicely done! 👏

Took the same 💪

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@TradingThomas3 We’re doomed! 🤦‍♂️

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@blancolivier2 Was right there with you bro! 👊

[Simon Anderson @Simon_Anderson8]

@TradingThomas3 We are doomed! 🙄