SimpleHedge

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Posting trade ideas

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

🚨$800 Canola!!🚨

Australian Canola expected to drop by 20% YoY (to 6.2MMT still feels aggressive..)

Total EU imports expected at near 6MMT this year (NOT going to be seeing Australia send 5MMT again!)

Canada walking back yield with El Niño and delayed seeding.

This all leads to BASIS appreciation for Canada, because where else will the rest of the world be able to really source any material volume of seed if not from Canada?!

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

For those not on our email - here's what to watch this week

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Canola vs Beans

Seeing a different story playing out in these two oilseed markets.

Beans getting more swings from the energy moves and Canola building a drought story....

#agtwitter #soybeans #canola

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

WASDE today!

Know your positions and risk going into it

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Capture the high looking attractive

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

The math is "mathing'"...

REALLY fast seeding pace pressuring Soybeans, which historically prints a larger yield.

Canola getting the run up from oil, AND market pricing in a tighter supply for 26/27 has pushed the X through its resistance.

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

🛢️ FUELING THE FIELD:
Why $140 Oil Could Send Ag Prices to the Moon 🚀

1/11 Ever wonder how a spike at the gas pump ends up in the soybean/canola field? 🧐

We’ve modeled the "Energy-Ag Link" to see exactly where Soybean and Canola prices could go if WTI Crude hits $120 or even $140!

A thread on the math of the "BOHO" (I call it HOBO lol) spread... 🧵👇

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

@VHagconsulting Only thing, is more vessels running through VCR that you can get logistics working quicker out west

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Matif/Canola spread on the May is at $130 USD/MT!

This is a massive arb opportunity. Any Canadian exporter can take delivery of the ICE May to replace their current ownership and direct a laker out of Tbay or VCR vessel to EU spot right now for a huge arb opportunity.

Also makes me realize the EU export number from Canada could jump...

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Missed this, but yes agreed

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Or I'll use puts far out of the money for a low cost when I think prices can go higher still, but want to at least cap a downside

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Canola ripping today, driven by war news

Wednesday is the deadline for a new deal

Could go higher still if no deal reached

Could drop if a deal is reached

I am already 50% forward sold, looking at put options here to lock-in a high floor price over summer for another 30%, letting 20% ride

This is a 'safety' trade - not betting price will go down; but I can lock-in a good year now and not worry about the news

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Yes, I think about that as well. I typically use puts only when strike minus premium is at my ROI target and I am hedging bushels that I might lose to weather (so I don't over commit to a buyer)

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

@Kotyjo El Niño coming, not great for WCan yields but even worse for Australia. This can help basis values in Canada as a drought in Australia is worse for available export supply than it is for Canada

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

2026 Yield Outlook: Why Winter Wheat’s Misery is often Gains for Corn and Soybeans and Hits to Canola🌽🌾

Interesting analysis we ran this week on the "Decoupling Effect" in North American crops. 🧵

As U.S. Winter Wheat enters Spring with a critical Good/Excellent rating (currently hovering in the mid-30% range), history suggests this is a major "bull trap" for the summer markets.

The Discovery:
When we see a wheat crisis during a Neutral-to-El Niño transition, national Corn and Soybean yields have finished above-trend or at record highs in 62% of years.

Why the Decouple?
A dry La Niña/Neutral spring that stunts wheat often "exhausts" itself just as the ENSO Oscillator flips. By July, El Niño typically floods the Corn Belt with moisture and cooler temps—precisely what corn needs for pollination.

The Canola Contrast : 🇨🇦 While the US Corn Belt thrives in this flip, Canola often sees yield declines. In these transition years, Canola faces a "double-jeopardy" scenario:

The Seeding Delay:
Neutral-to-El Niño flips often trigger wet, late springs in the Prairies.
The Root Trap:
A "behind the 5-year average" seeding pace means shallower roots. When the El Niño "Heat Dome" eventually shifts North in July/August, it hits the Canola during its sensitive flowering stage before it has the root depth to survive.

The 2014 Parallel:
This is the "Rhyming Year." In 2014, U.S. Winter Wheat was in a tailspin. Yet, as the El Niño took hold, US Corn and Soybeans hit all-time record yields while Canadian Canola saw a severe 13% yield drop due to a late start and summer heat.

The Bottom Line for 2026:
History doesn't repeat itself, but it definitely rhymes. Our focus for 2026 reports now shifts to:
✅ Seeding Pace: Does the US stay on track (Bullish Yield) while the Prairies lag (Bearish Canola)?
✅ The July "Flip":Identifying the exact window where the El Niño moisture arrives.

Watching these "Old Crop/New Crop" spreads closely as the oscillator begins to move. 📈

#Crops2026 #AgTwitter #Corn #Canola #Soybeans #Wheat #YieldOutlook #oatt

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Bearish energy and oilseeds. Get hedged!

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

🚨 IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE STUDYING ABANDONING URANIUM ENRICHMENT AS A U.S. CONDITION FOR ENDING THE WAR - NYP

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Oil prices are still $100/barrel on WTI front month and $91 on the deferred.

Still a massive premium today on energy from where prices were prior to the war thru Jan and Feb. Interestingly, energy prices are closer to the all time high we saw at the first energy spike than they are to prices prior to the war.

War premium still in energy, oilseeds should be able to hold this premium too

#markets #oil

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

Oilseeds finding support from the crushers. No crusher will risk it when board margin is over $300/MT on Canola and $2.50/bu on Beans...

#canola #soybeans #markets

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

And just like that energy is down $10/barrel, equities running.

Get your Ag hedges in tonight as energy won’t be there propping up oilseeds…

#grain #markets

[SimpleHedge @SimpleHedge_App]

@GGunthorp @musharbash_b We're working on it. If you had to start with one commodity market, which one would you choose?