Sinatra

Swing & Long-Term Crypto Trader | Technical Analyst | Data Scientist ✉️ DM for inquiries

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

🚨THE 4-YEAR CYCLE IS ALIVE AND WELL ‼️

Many people in crypto twitter are calling for the death of the 4-year cycle, but I believe this is a baseless claim with little to no evidence according to the charts.

Ignore the noise. Follow the structure.
Let’s break it down:
🧵(1/7)

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

When will you know you’re wrong though?

This isn’t really a situation where you can objectively determine when the threat is gone. So what would actually convince you to buy back in?

I ask because you could end up sitting on the sidelines indefinitely, only to buy back after a significant rally.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

Tried my best to add the current fractal of POL with its old chart, as if this were the full POL chart since launch. Decent.

People calling it a dead token still don't realize it is up massively since launch, its just been in a bear market since 2021 is the easiest way you could put it.

[Blokyz @OriginalBlokyz]

An Artistic Rendition of the Battle of Mizoreth, when combined armies from the five kingdoms attempted to capture a natural Calamity.

The Dragon Economy

The dragons in Blokyverse are colossal and sometimes even cosmic beings.

A mature dragon is like a flying mountain and as their being is immune to almost every known disease there are some dragons that are believed to be as old as time and as big as the planets. Most dragons ever captured have been the young ones.

Being reclusive creatures as they are, it is nearly impossible to encounter one. Encountering one and then survive to tell the tale is another matter altogether.

Thus, on the rare occasion when the Blokyz do manage to capture one, A dragon is often worth more than its weight in gold. A mountain of gold. Entire kingdoms are often worth less than a dragon.

Their indestructible and surprisingly weightless scales make the most formidable armour, A drop of their blood makes impossible spells possible, the fire in their belly can power all the forges in a nation for decades... safe to say each part of a dragons body is highly coveted.

This also makes dragon knights highly sought after, as no one understands dragons better than the dragon knights. ideologically the society of dragon knights is split on the morality of Dragon economy. But it doesn't change the fact that the entire dragon economy rests on their shoulders.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

@virtualbacon NEAR and AVAX basically had identical performance last cycle, so I’m wondering why you are not applying the same standard to NEAR?

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

$XRP

Bear market for xrp pretty much played out exactly as i thought.

I still think during the beginnings of a bull market, btc and eth outperforms it. So for now im staying away.

https://t.co/YL37KJQVdK

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

$XRP

Sorry to the holders, but this seems like a clear distribution phase.

XRPBTC showing almost identical momentum from 2017 cycle.

Even buying it spot long-term would not make me feel comfortable, fundamentals really aren't there, heavily speculative.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

$QNT

“I haven’t don’t so yet”

Update: QNT is up 300% in the past week, and I still did not pick it up 😭

This hurts lol but happy some people made money

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

$QNT tick-tock

no idea where this decides to break, im just gonna wait for confirmation

what i can say, is that this coin has not gone below its feb lows unlike almost every top 100 coin, strength.

years of boringness, i like boring

red squiggle alignes with what i expect the 4-year cycle to do, but this chart hasnt exactly followed the rest of the market so its not that straight-forward to predict.

maybe picking up spot isnt a bad idea, i havent done so and wont as of now, but defo on my radar.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

solana:rndrizKT3MK1iimdxRdWabcF7Zg7AR5T4nud4EkHBof

Longer chop at every bottom region.

I dont see many people talking about render on my feed, but that's cause price is corrolated with sentiment.

Im just seeing NEAR, ZCASH, QNT

We will probably see render in that list soon

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

@theNFTcat_sol Genuinely phenomenal art

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

Proud to be a @OriginalBlokyz

[T.M.A @Tma_420]

Proud to be a @OriginalBlokyz

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

@lokithebird I feel like it’s just a liquidity issue honestly. Once that comes around sentiment probably comes around too

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

@metavermanche For myself, this thesis I made in March was basically my reason as to why it is completely normal for assets especially like eth to just sweep the prior ATH.

Monero did the same thing as well, but people forgot about that when it went to 750$

https://t.co/5ulJsMerbs

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

What if $ETH is just following what silver did but in a shorter time frame? I feel this is plausible.

This is NOT my base case, but definitly something I will have my eyes on.

First off, I chose silver because of its similar tops to eth, NOT because "ETH is the silver of crypto".

Silver had its major top in Jan of 1980 at 47.6$, then after a long wait, in April 2011, it FINALLY broke its ATH, but only swept the high.

Ik there is a major timeframe difference, but this is similar to eth in many ways.

Sentiment was overly impatient that eth could not break its ATH while BTC and SOL did, then finally after 4 years later, it made a new ATH, but never entered price discovery, JUST LIKE silver.

You can ALSO see in the fractal that silver had 3 chop periods after it swept the high. $ETH has had 2 chop periods since it swept the old ATHs and is now in its 3rd chop period.

Playbook: 1.7k was potential bottom, possibly see a sweep and go to 1.5-1.6k. We chop in this area between 1.7k to 2.5k for months and thats it, then enter a raging bull market in 2027 for eth.

I was not sure of this before, I was always worried that when the $SPX corrects, it will drag eth down with it (even after the feb crash). so far it hasnt, eth rallying when spx is flat, then dumping when it corrects, it creates this choppy price action that this silver fractal suggests.

Fractal trading to be quite frank is unwise and shouldn't be relied on, but this tradeoff rallies we are seeing for crypto against the SPX could suggest that we don't have to go much lower.

I thought this was not a real possibility given that I expected the SPX to correct, but after it started its correction and observing price movements, i give this a 30% chance of actually happening. i still think btc and eth have not bottomed AND should see lower very soon, but I do have a scenario where I can accept that we have bottomed and entered chop mode, a scenario that imo is worth speculating on.

The reasons why this isnt my base case is because of USDT.D chart, it is asking for another push higher.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

ethereum:native

No one has been this accurate on eth this bear market.

March 2026:

“Playbook: 1.7k was potential bottom, possibly see a sweep and go to 1.5-1.6k. We chop in this area between 1.7k to 2.5k for months and thats it, then enter a raging bull market in 2027 for eth.”

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

What if $ETH is just following what silver did but in a shorter time frame? I feel this is plausible.

This is NOT my base case, but definitly something I will have my eyes on.

First off, I chose silver because of its similar tops to eth, NOT because "ETH is the silver of crypto".

Silver had its major top in Jan of 1980 at 47.6$, then after a long wait, in April 2011, it FINALLY broke its ATH, but only swept the high.

Ik there is a major timeframe difference, but this is similar to eth in many ways.

Sentiment was overly impatient that eth could not break its ATH while BTC and SOL did, then finally after 4 years later, it made a new ATH, but never entered price discovery, JUST LIKE silver.

You can ALSO see in the fractal that silver had 3 chop periods after it swept the high. $ETH has had 2 chop periods since it swept the old ATHs and is now in its 3rd chop period.

Playbook: 1.7k was potential bottom, possibly see a sweep and go to 1.5-1.6k. We chop in this area between 1.7k to 2.5k for months and thats it, then enter a raging bull market in 2027 for eth.

I was not sure of this before, I was always worried that when the $SPX corrects, it will drag eth down with it (even after the feb crash). so far it hasnt, eth rallying when spx is flat, then dumping when it corrects, it creates this choppy price action that this silver fractal suggests.

Fractal trading to be quite frank is unwise and shouldn't be relied on, but this tradeoff rallies we are seeing for crypto against the SPX could suggest that we don't have to go much lower.

I thought this was not a real possibility given that I expected the SPX to correct, but after it started its correction and observing price movements, i give this a 30% chance of actually happening. i still think btc and eth have not bottomed AND should see lower very soon, but I do have a scenario where I can accept that we have bottomed and entered chop mode, a scenario that imo is worth speculating on.

The reasons why this isnt my base case is because of USDT.D chart, it is asking for another push higher.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

https://t.co/zqHRoDjzQP

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

I called that the 4-year cycle was playing out way before the top.

“But but, institutions and ETFs!”
“Strategic Reserve!”
“This time is different”

I dismantled all those arguments in July 2025.

People may say that the majority said the same thing, they did not.

Tom Lee, Arthur Hayes, Michael Saylor, Hunter Horsely, Ansem, and your scammy influencers that don’t understand how basic trends work.

Now I say this. Knowing that btc will bottom on October does NOT mean you should wait till October to buy. In fact, you will inevitably get rekt.

Scenarios:

You will never know how it actually forms a bottom.

There are MANY different ways a valid 4-year cycle bottom can play out, it will not just be as simple as “Bottom in October”.

Maybe it wicks slightly below previous low on October, and you miss out and wait for lower to get in.

Maybe it bottoms in late September, we have our green October, but you wait patiently for the “bottom”, and completely miss out.
Or you buy in the middle of “Uptober” out of fomo, then btc makes its bottom.

Maybe we have a green October, into November, and you panic buy because you think the 4-year cycle was wrong, then we have a PERFECTLY VALID 4-year cycle bottom in November.

Main point

Psychologically in markets, if you take the smart-ass approach, you are highly vulnerable to making emotional decisions.
Cause when the market gives you an unexpected outcome at the time of your planned moves, which it definitely will, you essentially “choke”.

Yes I do think the btc bottom will be in October, and yes I do think we go lower than people think we will, but that does not change my DCA plan whatsoever.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

I’ve said this many many times and it’s even in my pinned, I don’t think there is a reason you could say the 4-year cycle is dead (rn).

However, looking at this chart, for the first time ever, you could say that we have already bottomed. This line has been very accurate throughout the bull and bear market.

I’ve talked for so long on why waiting for the 4-year cycle bottom (even if you believe in it) is a horrible idea. For a 4-year cycle to be valid, it does not have to bottom in October, MASSIVE MISCONCEPTION. If you wanna read more about it, I’ll post under the comments below what I said 3 months ago.

Plan:

If we maintain this line and break above 82k, the bull run will definitely be on.

If we break below, we will see another capitulation event.

I’m entirely 50/50 on what’s going to happen, but, if I had to choose, gun to my head, I would say we need one more capitulation event. Either way it doesn’t matter to me. I bought much eth at 1.5k-2k in the past 6months.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

Imagine fading the Funko Pop of web3

@OriginalBlokyz

[LoKi 😈 @lokithebird]

Imagine fading the Funko Pop of web3

@OriginalBlokyz

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

Love these @OriginalBlokyz I picked up a few days ago.

Love how the team is active and is in no rush to create short-term catalysts.

They were building wayyy before mint and royalty funds, which to me really does show their true intention.

Genuinely lovely art.

Thats all I needed.

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

@Tma_420 @OriginalBlokyz Fr lol

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

@steamboy33 @dgtlemissions Congrats man happy for u. Love ur overwatch work as well

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

@_peternotnice @Sykodelic_ im on weekly. there was never a fakeout close on this trendline only wicks below

[Sinatra @Sinatra_uu]

The trendlines show a clear seperation of price action, and is supported by plenty of support/resistance retests. Absolute basic TA that makes you realize if the line is valid or not.

Also what about the top lines? are you gonna apply the same standard or no?

Tell that to the many that did well using those lines to sell at near the top.