Sir David Butler

Veteran psephologist. BBC Election Night broadcaster 1950 - 1979, then radio and press to 2010. Pioneer of swingometer and swing theory. Author of 30+ books.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Ninety three today. I'm not about to start tweeting again, but look forward to the fascinating politics of the coming year.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Learning to tweet at 92 has been fun. But my musings should now be confined to elections, so I am signing off . . . until next year?

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

I have enjoyed my flirtation with Tweeting – and thank you for all the feedback. It’s wonderful to rediscover one is never too old to learn.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Parliament emerges "weak and unstable" after the snap election.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Unlike 74 though, this time the Opposition will probably want a new vote.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Wilson ran a minority govt for 8 months in 74. It's hard to see a May govt lasting any longer now.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Significantly more variation in swing this time both by region and amount than in any post-war election.

[Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ]

**In the betting markets Jeremy Corbyn is now favourite to be the next Prime Minister of Britain**

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

@stephenkb @patrickkmaguire Hasn't one already gone to an Independent?

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

15 Seats declared. Still none changed hands. Unusual. Can't last of course.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

No one yet pledging to eat their hat on the back of the exit poll.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

@paulwaugh Extraordinary if true.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Higher youth turnout in Sunderland may hint at explaining Labour strength generally.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Exit polls do not take in the last hour or more of real voting.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Health warning about TV exit poll: 2015 and 92 both underestimated Conservative support

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

If net poll forecasts of a 7-8% Tory lead are accurate, one would certainly expect an increased majority

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

If there's an overall swing towards the Conservatives, their victory becomes v probable.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

The first 10 seats called usually give an accurate steer to the final outcome.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

Rain can play a part - but it’s small. Lab voters go to polls later, so evening showers potentially hurt Lab more.

[Sir David Butler @SirDavidButler]

The polls have moved a great deal over the past two weeks. When people ask me for a prediction, I have to say I know that I don’t know.