Sir_Nickel

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth - Sherlock Holmes

[Sir_Nickel @Sir_nickle]

That's the tweet

[Sir_Nickel @Sir_nickle]

@0xSweep Still not a currency

[Christina @cjpraat]

Magnus Heystek’s Brenthurst Global Equity Feeder Fund (in Rands) launched Jan 2021… is up 57% at End July 2026.

That’s 8.6% per year annualised.

The Satrix MSCI World did 108% over the same period.

Brenthurst investors paid extra fees for less than half the growth of a ETF?!

[Sir_Nickel @Sir_nickle]

@Ameela_56 40

[Sir_Nickel @Sir_nickle]

@farman4x 94

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

THE REPO MARKET IS THE DOG WAGGING THE TAIL: A few thoughts on the incredible post below by my friend @AndreasSteno:

1) I continue to be blown away by the quality of analysis by some of the investors on this platform. While the supply of investing insights has exploded exponentially since COVID, the supply of money-making or money-saving investing insights has and will always remain relatively fixed because there will never be a substitute for “doing the work.” AI helps speed up analysis, but it does not place investors any closer to the vanguard of market-moving information than the Internet, Python, Excel, and HP-12Cs did. All these were simply new tools investors had to master to become minimally proficient at managing financial market risk. AI is no different. At any rate, many consider me to be a financial plumbing expert (e.g., I developed a net liquidity model that is still in broad circulation across global Wall Street)—and I learned something from Andreas’ thought-provoking work. It’s well worth your time to review.

2) Andreas is correct that levered hedge funds have represented a large source of incremental demand for US Treasury securities in recent years. The @IMFNews puts the total value of these relative value trades at $2.5tn, with the cash-futures basis trade accounting for 40% of that total. Our math indicates that we in the private nonbank sector are currently warehousing just shy of 60% of total marketable Treasury risk—up from only 36% in Nov-21. Back then, I was on @RaoulGMI's and @AndreasSteno's platform, @RealVision, with our mutual friend @JackFarley96, warning about the risk of the "schoolyard bully returning with a vengeance to take our lunch money." This was my simplified way of communicating that repo—and global balance sheet capacity broadly—would be increasingly diverted away from capitalizing risk assets to the rapidly growing Treasury market, which itself would struggle amid the fastest rate hikes in decades to the highest policy rate levels in decades. As many of you remember quite painfully, 2022 saw the sharpest correlated decline in stock and bond prices since the 1973-74 secular bear by some measures, or since the Great Depression according to alternate data. Fortunately, 2022 was the fourth of five consecutive cross-asset crashes in which I helped my clients avoid losing lots of money (2011, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025; my career started at the nadir of the GFC).

3) These admittedly complicated financial plumbing dynamics matter A LOT to every person or institution that has serious money invested in global financial markets. The good news is that you don’t have to be a financial plumbing expert or have a team of data scientists to keep track of these esoteric dynamics and what they mean for your portfolio; that’s our job. The @42Macro Weather Model makes it very easy to quickly cut through the noise, track the most important signals, and interpret what they mean for your portfolio and broad market risk. It’s been one of the most popular tools among @42Macro members for years. Why? Because, like KISS and Dr. Mo, it’s actually better than I am at calling markets.

I hope you found these insights helpful. Have a blessed day!
—Skipper 💜

[Sir_Nickel @Sir_nickle]

@AndreasSteno Absolutely brilliant. Thank you sir

[Johann Biermann 🇿🇦 @JohannBiermann1]

🇿🇦 JSE one of the best stock markets in the world the last 100 yrs 🤯

That's from a nominal point of view, but even in USD it's doing very very well!

Country haters are going to struggle with this one.

[Troll Football @TrollFootball]

Mamelodi Sundowns 👏

[Sean Berube @SeanBerube4]

Dostoevsky understood the Devil like no one else

He captured his evil in one of the most chilling scenes in all literature

Here’s what he wrote, and what it reveals about Satan and the “unforgivable sin…”🧵

[Track & Field Gazette @TrackGazette]

South Africa's 🇿🇦 stunning execution in the men's 4x100m heat at the World Relays for a World Lead of 37.84s!

Jamaica 🇯🇲 dropped the baton on their 2nd pass.

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

The Fed gave us a clear ‘signal’ that wasn’t ‘noise’ today. The 4.4% unemployment rate call for year-end would take it 100 basis points above the cycle low. Back to 1948, that has never happened without an NBER-defined recession. By the time the jobless rate rises this much, the recession has already been in play, to everyone’s surprise each and every time, for five months on both a mean and median basis. The dot plots are still at two cuts for this year, but the historical record suggests that we are going to see a lot more because if past is prescient, the recession nobody believes will rear its ugly head will materialize as early as July. Buy bonds on (price) dips.

[Moneyweb News @Moneyweb]

Dekra Automotive's COO said the company has unfortunately not been given the opportunity to investigate all the reports, but it can assure that “there are no fraudulent reports being provided to #WeBuyCars or any other motor vehicle dealer”.

#MoneywebNews
https://t.co/2Gbn0Sqdnu

[Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas]

Link to charts (click): https://t.co/FsuyQ8Rmmq

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

China is doing nothing but add to doubts about the quality of its statistic.

For example, making enormous changes to its balance of payments data over the course of 2021 without providing much explanation or any detailed data about the changes ...

1/x

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

I wrote this article this week and hope you enjoy it.

The lead in is a story about the legendary gambler Archie Karas who went on a 3-year winning streak that would later be called "The Run" turning $50 into $40,000,000.

https://t.co/3DU6E7g1uQ

[JennyManyDots @jenstilmanydots]

Another must read masterpiece by @iancassel

‘You will make mistakes. You aren’t perfect. You will buy stocks you shouldn’t. You will sell winners too soon. You will hold losers too long. You can’t learn this game without loss, pain, and discomfort.’

[SuperSport Schools @ss_schools]

Record Breakers! 🚨

The Curro Hazeldean boys’ U17 4x100m relay team smashed the 2015 world record of 39.95 (USA) with a stunning 39.92 at the NWU Top 30! 🔥

Congrats to Matodzi Ndou, Inam Dlumge, Adam Motloung & Zattu Hlongwane—unstoppable! 🏃‍♂️💥

#TheSportYouCareAboutMost💫

[Object Zero @Object_Zero_]

My point is debt markets matter.

They can force you to end a war, they can end your currency, they can end your empire.

Wars are fought in many theatres, on land, at sea, in the air and maybe soon in space?

But all wars are bond wars, because sovX is the source of all power.

[Hugh Hendry Acid Capitalist TV @hendry_hugh]

https://t.co/NswIOGn0lN

[Sir_Nickel @Sir_nickle]

@TicketmasterZA please follow me so I can dm an urgent issue