Brazil just printed its first monthly deflation in a year. Korea hiked back-to-back. A telco is becoming a bank. Week 35 is a masterclass in why EM credit is NOT one trade. #EmergingMarkets#PrivateCredit#GlobalMacro
MTN processed $330.5 billion in mobile-money transactions in H1 alone - and now wants banking licences to lend from its own balance sheet. A fintech in India is doing the same thing. New originators are forming exactly where credit is scarce. Why does that matter?
Central banks across 4 continents held rates this week. Colombia grew 3.5%. Africa's inflation eased. And a fintech just crossed a line that matters a lot to credit investors. Here's what it all means. #PrivateCredit#EmergingMarkets#SixPoint
China held rates for a 15th straight month. Egypt held for a 4th. Indonesia, India, the Philippines - all on pause. A stretch this quiet isn't empty. It's the predictable funding backdrop that makes long-dated deals easier to price.
The emerging world just sent 4 inflation signals at once - and they point in completely different directions. What does that mean for private credit investors? #EmergingMarkets#PrivateCredit#StructuredFinance
Eight country macro notes. Four regions. One question running through all of it: when the inflation fight is past its peak but nowhere near a common finish line, where does the real spread opportunity sit?
Brazil just posted a nominal deficit of 9.99% of GDP. Before you assume it's a spending problem, look at the interest bill. This one is different. #Brazil#EmergingMarkets#MacroCredit
Debt stabilisation at the current real cost of funding would require a primary surplus far beyond anything any candidate is proposing. The October election matters - but it acts on the credibility premium, not on the indexation structure itself.