蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞

非典型Gen Z
贪财好色 精神不太正常
特别mean的时候可能是发病了
不含ai 不含广告 不垂直 梦想是吃软饭

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

GS的CEO说市场流动性可以承受大型IPO goog的800亿定增是超额认购到847亿

话虽如此 J型曲线且订单能见度真的没有那么高的东西避一避也没有坏处 但是二十几倍大big tech没必要

至于crypto 从来没有在相对低位有这么多潜在卖盘 （dat）我比较好奇如果新低底背各位老师抄完以后发现还是没有正螺旋的表情

[付鹏的财经世界 @fupenglondon]

The Complete Causal Chain of the Cycle

1/ Initial Condition: Tightening of Overall Liquidity

Whether the source is central bank QT, strengthened bank capital regulation, reversal of cross-border capital flows, or private sector deleveraging, the overall available "risk-bearing capacity" is declining.

2/ Trigger: Uncertainty Shock

Geopolitical events, unexpected policy developments, unexpected data or earnings, or even just a single pulse of volatility can disrupt the fragile balance.

3/ First Round of Reaction: Sell-off of Risky/Marginal Assets + Deleveraging

Leveraged funds, risk parity strategies, CTAs, and institutions with insufficient allocation to "marginal" assets withdraw simultaneously. Liquidity in marginal assets (overvalued growth, peripheral credit, high-yield bonds, emerging markets, some commodities, or crypto-related assets) becomes instantly scarce.

4/ Liquidity Redistribution: Systemic Liquidity Concentrates on Core Assets

At this point, "certain assets" (sovereign bonds, gold, defensive/policy-supported core equities, and a few types of assets considered "safe" by market consensus) become the only acceptable collateral and allocation targets. Financing capacity tilts towards these assets.

5/ Price and Narrative Reinforcement: Core Asset Prices Rise

Continuous capital inflows drive up prices, further validating the narrative that "these assets are the only truly certain ones." The certainty premium is self-confirmed by the market through price signals.

6/ Siphon Effect: Peripheral Asset Liquidity Continues to Deteriorate

The rise in core assets is not neutral—it continuously draws remaining liquidity from already fragile peripheral sectors. Widening financing spreads, declining collateral values, and rising margin requirements create a vicious cycle.

7/ Accelerated Feedback: Capital Further Concentrates in the Core

Institutional risk control models, passive funds, and even AI trading agents identify core assets with "better past performance, lower volatility, and better liquidity" as the optimal solution, accelerating allocation.

8/ Ultimate Consequence: Reflexivity and Vulnerability

The higher the price and concentration of core assets, the deeper the system's dependence on the "certainty narrative." Once even a small crack appears in the narrative (fundamental falsification, policy shift, or external shock), the reversal will be far more severe than the initial shock. Because the margins have long been a liquidity black hole, the buffer mechanism has disappeared, and the implicit accumulation of leverage in the core will be released all at once during deleveraging.

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@ViewsOfChris 如果不扩产盈利周期才能更长久 更高峰 他为什么要扩产？

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

可能再大一点

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

情绪太极端了 但是估值肯定不是顶

倾向于即将有一次不值得卖出的回调 比昨天大一点的那种

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@Blinklebloop tigr and pdd at single digit

people just don't like the fact government can take the earning any time with some new random rules

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@yuyue_chris bmnr就是个eth dat

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@0x_MrFive 蠢所以亏钱所以buidl啊

负和博弈的场子不博弈不就是智力问题么

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@0xMilkRabbit qdii有明文免税 南向通可没有哦

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@qhx050721 这是一个价值万亿美元的问题

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

mrvl的万亿市值要从老黄这分吗😭

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@JobberTheGuru @fivepointwater5 回来告诉你

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@ChenGuanye 我是hkid开的

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@nft_hu 但是地址和w8冲突又会被关 已经有dp了😂纯难民了

稳定币能bypass 522号文收premium是有道理的（当然我理解bn傻逼不一定要用这一家）

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@WallStreet0Name @daidaidailanzi @woaitaoershi 善！

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@sun_xinjin bit by bit不去重的话 光互联的带宽都没有发射的时候大

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@yuyue_chris relax 我还一股没卖😭

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

@yuyue_chris 你还补刀😭

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

3月31号最低点模拟买入的soxl 刚想起来发现多次adl以后还是亏了99%

前open ai的小帅哥在同一天持有名义价值80亿的put 被解释为“对冲”

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

群友说这个也是做ai的时候用的 主要业务是软体封装和超高速数据接口封装

[蹦极不系绳跳伞不带伞 @SleepNotPayTax]

炒股赚钱了利好性感内衣？