one of my long term conviction trades is solana:EpVHyKK8oxcLmp2C2NhAos1oDxgBNriw3wSLSozYpump
I bid $10k @ 500k MCAP the day it was launched (42 days ago) and have been holding ever since
every trader I’ve spoken to about my thesis has fudded it with 2 points:
1) it will be sell the news on release
2) another GTA narrative post launch will volume vamp it
while these two points might be the general rule of thumb for most hyped up events, i think the magnitude of cultural relevance GTA will have will lead to a different outcome
> sell the news <
when it comes to sell the news, the most recent example people give me is the World Cup coin. Prior to the event, the coin ran from 0 to $10M MCAP. The key difference with WC is that it happens once every 4 years, definitively ending mindshare post finals
GTAV was a top 5 videogame for a decade after release. Of course with any hyped up event such as the release, i expect some type of dip/correction, but i reckon as gta clips/streams/gameplay accelerate post launch, the “sell the news” dip will swiftly recover
i believe the dip/recovery will look similar to TripleT being added to Fortnite. It may seem laughable now, but back then that was a big sell the news event, taking the coin from 3m to sub 1m. Once people saw how the virality only accelerated after this catalyst, they bought back hard
> vamped by a different GTA meme / narrative <
to put it briefly, there is a world where I see this situation playing out, but the GTAVI token will have such a long window to consolidate and achieve optimal distribution that with a higher floor it will make it extremely difficult for any short term trend/meme to overtake it as the main, sustainable GTA runner
at the end of the day, memecoins are attention tokens. Trends might have harder concentration of attention, but they also end. The attention on GTAVI will essentially always be there
i have also purchased $MACCA the gator as a hedge. Macca is confirmed to be the mascot of the TV show in game. Given that its an animal and the game takes place in Vice City (Miami) i think it has a strong case of being the animal associated with GTAVI
> exit strategy <
while repeatedly buying/selling low liq tokens on a short time frame can negatively impact ceilings, if used correctly on tokens with longevity it can be a positive form of market making
i think the ceiling for the GTAVI attention narrative is as high as any, but i also understand how trench mindsets are very short sighted
i believe that at some points early on we will see the mcap outpace the velocity of attention & catalysts. At those points i plan on selling some supply and buying back when the short sighted trenchers rotate
> fin <
i hope you enjoyed my long essay (dw i alr expect a lot of incoming *not reading all that* posts)
one of my longer term positions so i figured id give an update on my thought process and conviction with this one since im not a huge fan of daily bagworking