My first month running this page and I cooked the entire World Cup 🌍🔥
Here’s what was printing:
Passes attempted. That was the whole tournament. No prop type showed up on these slips more, and it wasn’t close. Overs on defenders in teams that dominate the ball, unders on keepers and defenders stuck chasing the game. Some of these cleared the line by 30, 40, even 50 passes. The books set soccer volume lines like it was a regular club weekend and World Cup football made them look silly for a month straight.
Second biggest piece: CS2 kill lines. Maps 1-2 kills hit on both sides of the number, some overs clearing by 10+, and they were perfect for rounding out 6-mans when the soccer slate was thin.
The quiet money was goalie saves. Underdog keepers got peppered all tournament and every saves over I took hit.
Sprinkle in tennis fantasy overs and WNBA volume props and that’s the whole recipe. Volume stats over outcome stats. All month.
The lesson from this run: don’t bet on what a player might do. Bet on what the game script forces them to do.
Did anyone cash with me this World Cup?
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@wintallhandsom3 Got a few slips in already, but a lot of the lines have moved since I built them. Was gonna drop a bunch of tiles, but I might put up a 6-man once more lineups are confirmed.
#POD
Lewandowski UNDER 22.5 passes attempted
Man made his actual MLS debut days ago. 62 minutes, 17 passes attempted. A 37 year old finisher still getting his legs under him in a brand new league, and the over needs him to jump 6 more attempts than his debut number just to hit
He’s never been a build up guy. Not at Bayern, not at Barca, not now. The ball runs through everyone else and finds him in the box, not the other way around
Turn notis on so you beat the bumps 🔔
#POD
Tim Ream OVER 55.5 passes attempted
Four of the five games on his card aren’t even Charlotte games
Austria. Türkiye. Bosnia. Belgium. That’s all from his World Cup run with the USMNT. Different system, different teammates, different job
This is what nobody checks. A guy comes back from international duty and his last 5 tells you nothing about how he plays for his club. You have to go pull the club numbers yourself
So I did. In MLS this season he’s attempted 649 passes across 945 minutes. That’s 61.8 per 90. More than 6 above his line
And that stretch doesn’t even include his latest one. The only MLS game sitting on his card is the most recent game on there, and he put up 74
Before anybody brings it up, Charlotte rarely have the ball. 45% possession across their last 10 games, and they’ve had more of it than their opponent in only 2 of those 10. He’s putting up these numbers anyway, because everything they build starts at his feet
38 years old, left footed and in every predicted XI tonight
❤️+Follow; Turn notis on so you beat the bumps 🔔
#MLS #PrizePicks
#POD
Lewandowski UNDER 22.5 passes attempted
Man made his actual MLS debut days ago. 62 minutes, 17 passes attempted. A 37 year old finisher still getting his legs under him in a brand new league, and the over needs him to jump 6 more attempts than his debut number just to hit
He’s never been a build up guy. Not at Bayern, not at Barca, not now. The ball runs through everyone else and finds him in the box, not the other way around
Turn notis on so you beat the bumps 🔔
Hiedeman busted at 5, killed the slip. Mabrey and Fudd hit clean. Howard landed on 5 and pushed, same number I called in the writeup. Read was there. One leg away.
The slip. All LESS on money balls.
⭐ HIEDEMAN LESS 4.5
5 for her last 28 from three. Lowest percentage in the field, longest odds in the field. She needs five money balls to beat me. She hasn’t made five threes in two weeks.
⭐ MABREY LESS 5.5
82 threes leads the league and she’s earned it. She also finished dead last in this event in 2024 with a 19. And the league leader in made threes is now 0 for 6 all time in this contest.
FUDD LESS 5.5
Most popular play on the whole board. Only rookie in the field. No rookie has ever won this.
HOWARD LESS 5
12 for her last 41. Coldest shooter here outside Hiedeman, and she pushes if she lands exactly on five.
I’m playing the four.
Building a six? Carleton LESS 5 and Salaün LESS 5. Same math, thinner edge. Salaün is 14 of 27 over her last five so that’s the scariest leg on the board and I’m telling you that up front.
Win or lose it goes up here. Same as always.
Turn notis on so you beat the bumps 🔔
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This is a damn fucking shame.
Chennedy Carter was top 5 in the WNBA in points per 36. Career high 52% from three. 12 a night off the bench for a 15-6 team. Dropped 20+ four different times this season.
Vegas cut her two days before contracts guaranteed.
Now she’s playing 1v1 on a Saturday livestream instead of in the league, and every front office is pretending she’s not a walking bucket.
None of this is about basketball. Give her a roster spot.
Give her a little crown vanilla w/ root beer and Hiedeman turns into prime curry every time she touches one of those money balls, despite finishing DEAD LAST 🙃
There are 9 money balls in the entire WNBA 3PT Contest.
The board is asking for 6.
The greatest shooters in the history of this event land on 4 and 5.
Here’s the whole thing broken down 🧵
There are 9 money balls in the entire WNBA 3PT Contest.
The board is asking for 6.
The greatest shooters in the history of this event land on 4 and 5.
Here’s the whole thing broken down 🧵
There are 9 money balls in the entire WNBA 3PT Contest.
The board is asking for 6.
The greatest shooters in the history of this event land on 4 and 5.
Here’s the whole thing broken down 🧵