Smart Money Desk

Value investor sharing real portfolio moves | Long-term wealth for everyone.

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

+34.35% in 12 months. +22.20% YTD. The market did half that.

But here’s what the chart doesn’t show you:

In April, this portfolio was RED for the year. Deep in the drawdown. Everyone was selling. I was buying.

No leverage. No options. No day trading.
Just 13 stocks. Bought when nobody wanted them. Held when everybody panicked.

Volatility is information, not risk. April proved it again.

I’ve been revealing every position in this portfolio, one by one, the thesis, the numbers, the mistakes.

Follow me so you don’t miss it. 🔔

#SmartMoneyDesk #FinTwit #Investing #StockMarket #Stocks #ValueInvesting #Portfolio #WealthBuilding #LongTermInvesting #FinancialFreedom #Investor #MarketOutlook

[Fiscal.ai @fiscal_ai]

SoFi over the last 5 years:

Members +518%
Stock Price -21%

$SOFI

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

$VALE Q2 2026 just dropped.

The world’s largest iron ore operation. Dividend confirmed. Bargain valuation.

Q2 2026 the numbers:

→ Proforma EBITDA: $4.1B (+19% YoY)
→ Net revenue: $10.5B (+19% YoY)
→ Free Cash Flow: $1.5B (+49% YoY)
→ Iron ore sales: 79.7 Mt, best Q2 since 2018
→ Copper EBITDA: $1.0B (+91% YoY)
→ Nickel EBITDA: $294M (+46% YoY)

Dividend just got approved:

→ $1.7B paid out in September
→ Ex-date: August 13, if you’re in, you get paid
→ 25 consecutive years of dividends. Not a promise. A track record.

The valuation makes no sense:

EV/EBITDA 5.8x vs. Rio Tinto 9.8x / BHP ~9x
Forward P/E ~7x vs. sector average 12.6x
PEG ratio of 0.12, you’re buying growth below fair value

The catalyst most people missed:

Copper all-in cost: -$257/t, negative.
Gold, silver, and cobalt by products are funding the entire operation.
Serra Sul +20 started up in July.
Bacaba ahead of schedule.
Net debt down $1.1B in a single quarter.
Record results.
Dividend hitting accounts in September.

Broken-stock multiple on a business beating records.

Not financial advice.
#VALE #VALE3 #Mining #IronOre #Dividends #ValueInvesting #SmartMoneyDesk

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

@pepemoonboy

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

@DudeWhoInvests

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

$AMZN just dropped Q2 2026 earnings. And they didn’t just beat, they accelerated.

AWS grew 37% YoY. Fastest growth in 18 quarters. On a $169B annualized run rate. This isn’t a rebound story. It’s a compounding machine hitting its stride.

Q2 2026 - The Numbers

📊 Net Sales: $200.6B (+20% YoY), first time crossing $200B in a single quarter
📊 Operating Income: $27.5B (+43% YoY)
📊 Operating Margin: 13.7% (vs 11.4% Q2 2025)
📊 EPS Diluted: $5.75 (vs $1.68 Q2 2025)*
📊 Operating Cash Flow (TTM): $161.4B (+33% YoY)
*EPS includes $53.4B non-operating pre-tax gain from Anthropic investment, one-time item. Strip it out. The real story is $27.5B operating income, up 43%.

AWS: Reaccelerating, Not Plateauing

☁️ Revenue: $42.2B (+37% YoY)
☁️ Operating Income: $16.6B (+64% YoY)
☁️ Operating Margin: 39.4%

Q1 was 28%. Q2 is 37%. The trajectory is what matters. AWS didn’t slow down with scale, it sped up. That’s the kind of momentum that reprices a stock.

Advertising: The Quiet Monster

📣 Q2 Ad Revenue: $19.8B (+26% YoY)
📣 TTM Advertising: ~$70B+

26% growth at that scale. Nobody talks about Amazon Ads the way they talk about Google or Meta. They should.

The Chips Story Nobody Is Pricing In
Amazon’s chips business, Trainium, Graviton, Nitro, just crossed a $25B annual revenue run rate. Growing triple digits YoY.

AI business? Also crossed $25B run rate. Triple digits YoY.

Two separate businesses most investors don’t even know exist, both scaling faster than almost anything else in tech.

Q3 2026 Guidance

→ Revenue: $197–$202B (+9–12% YoY)*
→ Operating Income: $22.5–$26.5B (vs $17.4B Q3 2025)
*Lower growth rate is Prime Day timing, strip that effect and it’s nearly 400bps higher. Don’t be fooled by the headline.

Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

#AMZN #AWS #investing #FinTwit #stocks #earnings #SmartMoneyDesk

[Satya Nadella @satyanadella]

Just wrapped our earnings call.

It was a very strong close to what was a record fiscal year for Microsoft.

· Annual revenue: $331B, +18%
· MS Cloud: $214B, + 27%
· And Azure: $100B, +41%

And even bigger opportunity ahead!

I wanted to share some more perspective on two areas of focus for us:

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

$META Q2 2026 just reported.

Revenue of $60.8B, up 28% YoY. 3.6 billion people using their apps every single day. Ad impressions up 14%, price per ad up 12%. The core machine keeps running.

Now the part the market didn’t like, and I won’t hide it. Operating margin fell to 31% from 43% a year ago. Costs jumped 55%. Capex hit $31B in the quarter alone. Legal proceedings added another $2.4B. EPS came in at $6.18 vs $7.14 last year.

Not a clean quarter. I know that.

But here’s what I also know. They have $90B in cash and securities sitting on the balance sheet. Q3 guidance came in at $61-64B. And the AI investment is already showing up where it matters, in ad performance, in engagement, in pricing power. This isn’t the metaverse.

The returns are already coming.
Forward P/E around 18x for a company that historically trades at 25x. I see 50% upside from here to normalize the valuation. Not a 10x. But consistent, predictable growth, and the market will price it in.

That’s why I’m still building this position.

Not financial advice.
#investing #valueinvesting #stocks #META #longterminvesting

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

$MSFT just reported. The “AI will kill Microsoft” crowd owes us an apology.

Azure crossed $100B in annual revenue. For the first time. Ever.

Q4 FY2026: → Revenue: $90B (+18% YoY)
→ Operating Income: $40.6B, 45% margin
→ Non-GAAP EPS: $4.74 (+23% YoY)
→ Azure: +43% YoY, ACCELERATING
→ Microsoft Cloud: $59.3B (+27% YoY)
→ Locked backlog: $678B (+84% YoY)

Copilot paid seats: 15M → 30M in one half. Doubled. And that’s on 450M total commercial seats. We’re still in the early innings of monetization.

The market spent a year afraid that OpenAI would cannibalize this company. Meanwhile Microsoft owns a piece of OpenAI, holds IP rights through 2032, and is their primary cloud provider. You don’t disrupt Microsoft. You build your AI company on their infrastructure and make them richer.

$10.2B returned to shareholders. This quarter alone.

Forward P/E ~22x, 30% below its own 5-year average, for a business growing cloud at 43% with $678B in locked future revenue.

That’s not a premium. That’s a discount wearing a Mag 7 label.

Long $MSFT. 🎯

Not financial advice.

GAAP EPS of $4.81 includes a one-time $3.2B Anthropic investment gain, non-GAAP $4.74 is the clean number.

#MSFT #Microsoft #Azure #Copilot #AI #Mag7 #EarningsSeason #FinTwit #SmartMoneyDesk

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

Wall Street still prices $SOFI like a bank. That's the trade.

Q2 2026 just dropped. My largest dollar position just delivered.

$1.22B revenue. +43% YoY. 11th straight profitable quarter. EPS up 50%.

But here's what the headlines won't say:

For the first time ever, SoFi added twice as many products as members in a single quarter. The flywheel just shifted gears.

📌 Adj. revenue: $1.21B (+40% YoY)
📌 EBITDA: $358M -> 30% margin
📌 Loan originations: $14.8B (+69% YoY) -> record
📌 Members: 15.8M (+35% YoY)
📌 Deposits: $45.5B -> +$5.3B in one quarter
📌 X-buy rate: 51% -> was 35% a year ago
📌 Rule of 40: 70 -> 19 consecutive quarters
📌 Tangible book value: +56% YoY
📌 CET1: 18.7% -> fortress

Guidance raised. Again. $4.75–$4.85B for 2026.
The market values this like a regional bank. The business compounds like a tech platform. That gap is the entire thesis.

Long $SOFI. Not financial advice.

#SOFI #Fintech #Investing #Earnings #SmartMoneyDesk

[SoFi @SoFi]

📣 Q2 was an exceptional quarter for SoFi. We delivered:

👉$1.2 billion in adjusted net revenue, up 40%
👉 1.1 million new members, up 35%
👉 A record 2.2 million new products, up 42%
👉 A record $14.8 billion in loan originations

For the first time, we added 2x as many products as members, with 51% of new products opened by existing members - showing that more people are choosing SoFi for more of their financial lives.

Full Q2 results here: https://t.co/jKvo9CZhzG

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

Most investors can’t explain why they own what they own. If you can’t state your thesis in one sentence, you don’t have a thesis, you have a hope.

$AMD — The AI compute race has two horses, and the market still prices it like there’s one.

$META — The most efficient ad machine ever built, now compounding with an AI flywheel nobody’s modeling.

$MSFT — The toll booth on enterprise AI adoption.

$GOOGL — Priced for disruption, positioned for domination.

$AMZN — Retail pays the bills, AWS prints the future.

$NOW — The operating system of the enterprise, growing at software’s best economics.

$SOFI — The bank the next generation actually uses, still valued like an experiment.

$NU — The most profitable fintech story on Earth is happening in Portuguese and Spanish, and Wall Street still isn’t fluent.

$UNH — Bought it hated at 13x earnings, because quality never stays on sale forever.

$VALE — The world needs iron more than it admits, and pays me dividends while it figures that out.

$CELH — Distribution moat plus category growth, accumulated when the crowd walked away.

$OSCR — Tech-first insurance eating a market the legacy players can’t rebuild for.

$ZETA — 245M+ deterministic consumer profiles quietly displacing the legacy marketing clouds.

Which thesis do you disagree with most? 👇
Not financial advice.
#Investing #Stocks #ValueInvesting #AI #SmartMoneyDesk

[Sundar Pichai @sundarpichai]

Q2 was an amazing quarter, with our AI investments redefining what’s possible across every part of our business.

Alphabet revenue grew 24% YoY and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth. We saw exciting momentum across the board from Search to YouTube to the Gemini app (which reached 950M monthly active users). Our model APIs are processing 22B tokens/min (up from 16B+ last quarter) driven by our workhorse Flash models. We’re also seeing great adoption of Gemini Enterprise, used by 90% of the Fortune 100, as well as strong demand for our security solutions.

Outstanding results and momentum, and such an exciting moment—thanks to all of our partners and employees around the world! 🙌 About to hop on the call!

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

$NOW Q2 2026. And the machine didn't just hold, it accelerated.

I've been saying it for a while. NOW or Never. Every quarter, this company proves the "never" crowd wrong.

Q2 2026: Beat the high end of guidance. Again.

Subscription Revenue: $3.87B (+24.5% YoY) ↑
Total Revenue: $3.99B (+24% YoY) ↑
cRPO: $13.2B (+21% YoY), next 12 months locked in
Total RPO: $29B (+21% YoY), visibility machine
Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 29.5%
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.90 (+11% YoY)
FCF: $634M

Not just a beat. They raised full-year guidance to $15.76–$15.78B in subscription revenue.

The number that changed the story this quarter:

ServiceNow AI crossed $1 billion in ACV. In one quarter. Agentic AI deployments grew 9x in nine months. This isn't a feature, it's the next revenue layer stacking on top of an already 99% renewal business.

The CEO said it: "Rule of 56, well on our way to Rule of 60." That's subscription growth + FCF margin combined. Most enterprise software companies celebrate a Rule of 40. ServiceNow is targeting 60 by 2030 with a $30B+ subscription revenue long-term target.

Why I stay long, unchanged:

This is a compounder. The backlog grows. The customers expand. The AI layer monetizes on top of infrastructure that's already embedded in 85% of the Fortune 500.

Consistent execution. Quarter after quarter. That's where I want my money.

#ServiceNow #NOW #Earnings #Q2Earnings #AIStocks #EnterpriseAI #Compounders #Investing #TechStocks #FinTwit #SmartMoneyDesk

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

$GOOGL dropped Q2 2026.

12 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth. Read that again.

Q2 2026 - The numbers:
→ Revenue: $119.8B (+24% YoY), 12th straight double-digit quarter
→ Operating Income: $40.8B (+30% YoY)
→ Operating Margin: 34%, expanding every single quarter
→ Google Search: $63.3B (+17% YoY), still growing, still dominant
→ YouTube Ads: $11.1B (+13% YoY)
→ Google Cloud: $24.8B (+82% YoY), this is not a typo

The Cloud number deserves its own paragraph.

$13.6B a year ago. $24.8B today. +82% YoY. Cloud operating income went from $2.8B → $8.8B in one year, a 212% jump. This is no longer a growth story. This is a profit machine that's just getting started.

The AI metrics that nobody is pricing in:

→ Gemini API: 22 billion tokens per minute processed, up from 16B just last quarter
→ Gemini App: 950 million monthly active users
→ Gemini Enterprise: adopted by nearly 90% of the Fortune 100
→ YouTube: 1.7 billion unique viewers watching World Cup content. One platform. One month.

The balance sheet transformation:

Cash + marketable securities: $242B, up from $127B at year-end. Yes, they raised $49.6B in equity and $20.3B in bonds to fund AI infrastructure. That's not dilution, that's a war chest being deployed.

CapEx: $44.9B in a single quarter (+100% YoY). The infrastructure buildout is accelerating, not slowing. The companies winning AI long-term are the ones building the pipes. Google is building the pipes.

One thing to understand about EPS:GAAP EPS printed $9.11, looks insane. That includes a $99B unrealized gain on equity investments. Strip that out, operating earnings continue to compound at 30%+ clip. That's the number that matters.

#GOOGL #Google #Alphabet #GoogleCloud #Gemini #AI #Mag7 #TechStocks #GrowthInvesting #Earnings #FinTwit

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

Earnings week for my portfolio. Two positions report Wednesday. Same day.

$GOOGL and $NOW .

I will be watching two things:

$GOOGL → Cloud growth + AI capex discipline. The market keeps doubting Search. Search keeps printing money.
$NOW → Down double digits since last report. Sentiment is washed out. That's exactly when I pay attention. The market has priced in a ±13% move on this print.

Bonus: $VALE just dropped its Q2 production report. Full financials July 30. Nobody on this app talks about iron ore. That's usually a good sign.

Long $GOOGL, $NOW, $VALE.

Volatility this week isn't risk. It's information.
Not financial advice.

#GOOGL #NOW #VALE #EarningsSeason #Investing #StockMarket #SmartMoneyDesk

[Smart Money Desk @SmartMoneyDesk]

📅 Earnings Week Ahead — July 20-24

Ones I’m watching, and why:

$TSLA — Deliveries already reported; the story is margins, robotaxi progress, and guidance.

$GOOG — First megacap AI report of the season. Cloud growth and capex guidance set the tone for all of big tech.

$TXN — Best read on industrial/auto chip demand. Soft guidance from TI = soft industrial economy.

$GM — Tariff cost absorption and pricing power. Watch the full-year guidance update.

$MMM — Classic industrial bellwether. Margins + organic growth = manufacturing health check.

$INTC — Foundry losses and turnaround progress. Big moves either way.

$FCX — Copper is the AI/electrification trade in commodity form.

$VZ / $AXP — Friday’s consumer check: still paying the phone bill and swiping card.