Smitethat

Straight world news on elections, politics & global events. Real-time updates on what matters most

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Korea tripped circuit breakers for a second consecutive day. SK Hynix and Kioxia tumbled again, and the Kospi is now far below its June peak. SK Hynix's quarterly profit hit a record and the shares fell anyway. Tesla separately broke below $300 to a near one-year low, with executives saying the Fremont Optimus line starts at the end of 2026.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Meta went the opposite direction, hard. The stock sank after hours as soaring AI costs squeezed profits and a soft third-quarter outlook landed badly. Same night, same arms race, opposite verdict.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Microsoft delivered the quarter the AI trade needed. Adjusted EPS of $4.74 against a $4.24 estimate, revenue of $90.0 billion against $87.6 billion expected, and Azure growth well ahead of the thirty-nine to forty guided. Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time, total cloud revenue topped $214 billion, and commercial remaining performance obligation surged to $678 billion. Full-year profit was $133.7 billion.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

But it was the capex line that moved the stock. Calendar 2026 capital spending comes in around $175 billion with fiscal 2027 the same, and the CFO stressed the plans are unchanged, with the higher figure reflecting a lease accounting reclassification. First-quarter capex tops $50 billion. Shares jumped after hours, most of the move arriving on the capex headlines rather than the beat. Management also noted backlog growth excluding OpenAI and that the overwhelming majority of cloud revenue comes from customers outside frontier model companies, a direct answer to the circular-revenue critique.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Next decision is September 15 and 16. Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole from August 27 to 29, which is now the only scheduled window to read his intentions before then.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

The Fed held, nine to three.

The target range stays at three and a half to three and three quarters, a fifth consecutive hold. Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis' Neel Kashkari and Dallas' Lorie Logan all dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike. Three dissents is the highest under Kevin Warsh and the real headline.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Stocks did not like it. The Dow was down more than 840 points late in the session with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both lower. The curve steepened hard: the 10-year yield rose to 4.657, the 2-year slipped to 4.236, and the 30-year jumped more than nine basis points to 5.193.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Watch Egypt.

Inchcape Shipping Services reported an explosion at Damietta Port during cargo discharge operations Wednesday evening. Vessels involved were moved outside the port and operations are expected to resume overnight at other berths. Cause not yet established.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

A new CSIS report cuts against the official line on munitions. The think tank estimates US stockpiles of its two critical air defense interceptors are dramatically reduced since combat began on February 28, updating an April 8 assessment. Trump and Mike Waltz both spent this week insisting inventory is not a problem.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

CENTCOM issued an explicit warning. It said the IRGC and its proxies "must cease these attacks to avoid further U.S. military response," and disclosed that Iran-aligned militias made more than 600 attempted attacks on American citizens and facilities in Iraq between February and April.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

The morning version was blunter. Trump told Fox that American troops had only minutes to intercept, then said: "They're going to get a beating." He used considerably stronger language in the same breath.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Trump says it's America's turn. Speaking in the Oval Office Wednesday, he said the US will hit Iran very hard and, in his words, smack them a little bit.

His account of Tuesday night: five rockets travelling 8,500 miles an hour, all five knocked down. He added that Tehran is asking the US not to retaliate, then left the door open: "we'll see if we get there with an agreement at some point."

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

The Fed decides at 2 p.m. ET today and it is not a formality. Citadel Securities macro strategist Frank Flight says investors may be underestimating the hawkish shift at the central bank, and argues firmer energy prices could tip a finely balanced decision toward a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 2:30. Microsoft and Meta report after the close.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Wall Street had a great Tuesday and then the missiles flew. The Dow surged more than 500 points for a third straight winning day, powered by the collapse in oil, before CENTCOM's statement landed after the close. Ford jumped in extended trading after beating and raising its 2026 forecast. Visa slipped on soft guidance.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

The rest of Asia split. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at 61,434.19 with SoftBank Group among the heaviest losers, while mainland China's CSI 300 and Australia's ASX 200 both finished higher, the ASX at 9,038.60. Europe opened lower, with only the FTSE 100 holding an advance on the weight of its oil majors.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Korea is in free fall. The Kospi closed Wednesday at 5,663.24 with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics leading the damage again. That follows Tuesday's close at 6,023.66 and Monday's 6,755.75. Tuesday's rout tripped a Level 1 circuit breaker at 10:13 a.m. Seoul time, freezing all trading for 20 minutes, the eighth halt this year and the 14th on record.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

SK Hynix posted record revenue and record operating profit and got destroyed anyway. It missed elevated forecasts, and the market is now punishing results that are good but not beating fast enough. That is the AI trade repricing in real time, not an Iran story.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

The five-day pause is formally dead. Tuesday's Iranian launch was the first ballistic missile attack on a US base since Trump halted strikes Friday, and the US-Saudi operation was the first American military action of that pause. Thirteen consecutive nights of CENTCOM strikes preceded it.

[Smitethat @Smitethatmain]

Tehran has now claimed it publicly. The IRGC said via Press TV that it launched ballistic missiles at US military targets in Jordan. CENTCOM's original statement never named the country. Iran naming it removes any ambiguity about deniability.