Skander Tuttix

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Let's just conclude that, no matter whether the Iran-deal is actually signed or not, or whether it will hold in practice in the months to come, we are currently in an oversupplied oil market, which is basically crazy given how much supply damage we have seen since April.

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

COT on #FX in week to 9 June was dominated by broad and aggressive dollar buying after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report on 5 June helped the greenback post its strongest daily gain in more than two months. By the end of the reporting week, the dollar had risen around 0.7% against a basket of major currencies.
The one-sided focus on dollar strength triggered a 69% surge in the aggregate net long dollar position against the eight IMM currency futures, lifting it to USD 28 billion, the highest level in fourteen months.
Selling was broad-based and led by the euro, where the net long was reduced by 34.9k contracts to 14k contracts, equivalent to around USD 2 billion. This was followed by a reduction in bullish bets on the Australian dollar, and increased short positioning in Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Japanese yen and British pound.
As a result, the speculative net short in the Japanese yen climbed to a fresh 23-month high of 146k contracts, equivalent to roughly USD 11.5 billion. It remains the largest short position held against the dollar despite repeated intervention warnings from Japanese authorities.

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@YannickAllegre @DidierMaisto Branche ce qui te sert de cerveau et relis.
Si tu n'as toujours pas compris, arrêtes de lire quoi que ce soit, c'est une perte de temps pour les débiles profonds.

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@fella_lux @1NikolaMirkovic Non c'est à Luhansk abruti.

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@NicolasB75013 @1NikolaMirkovic Leur but, exporter ces labos qui sont interdits sur le sol américain, à l'étranger et avec moins de moyens de contrôles de sécurité.

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@ladyjaujau @1NikolaMirkovic D'après vous il n'y a pas de biolabs à pathogènes en Ukraine?

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@Bubuge75 @f_philippot Tu as rien compris chatbot de merde.

[Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA]

Oil prices enter bear market territory.

The futures curve points to faster disinflation in the front and back parts.

Geopolitical risk events create smaller highs and easing generates deeper lows.

Things may change, but the trend is evident.

via Bloomberg

[Jacques Sapir @russeurope]

Nous y voila (bis)!
MM. Macron, Merz et Starmer vont-ils continuer à répandre des fake news où vont-ils accepter la réalité?

[DNI Tulsi Gabbard @DNIGabbard]

Today, I’m releasing never before seen intelligence revealing new evidence of past US government funding for more than 120 biolabs in over 30 countries, including Ukraine.

In support of President Trump‘s Executive Order to end federal funding of dangerous gain of function research around the world, and increase transparency and accountability, ODNI will continue working with partners across the Administration to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what “research” is being conducted.

https://t.co/pLMD0krc69

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@Florian_Tardif @ParisMatch Vrai ou pas cette info n'a aucun intérêt.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.

Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.

VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.

Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@mike77kl @NorthstarCharts @Kacper_PK_CH And sorry for my frenglish

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@mike77kl @NorthstarCharts I recommend @Kacper_PK_CH too, different approach, but really minding other ones success / happiness

[Jacques Sapir @russeurope]

Contrairement à Merz et Starmer, le chef des forces US de l'OTAN ne croit pas du tout à une attaque future de la Russie contre l'OTAN
https://t.co/SwOPhRYsN7

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

US producer prices are increasing at the fastest pace since 2022.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

On my best estimates, the current decently balanced energy markets can be maintained until September..

After that, we are going to see a bidding war again.

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

See the linked post below for my silver roadmap (issued around 6 months ago). Here's todays update...all it needed was a little patience 👇

[Skander Tuttix @SoSkeptix]

@NorthstarCharts @mike77kl Mike maybe you confused with him