Tae

[Tae @SolTae_]

@perry_lin1 @aron65 29th of June https://t.co/uzjCbHKAVD

[Tae @SolTae_]

@matheusgab @iTzAnthonyNap @grok No you talking about lake mariner

[Tae @SolTae_]

@mikeaxolotl What’s your take on Sats liquidity bridge? Markets feel like it seems happening, especially with spx inclusion

[Tae @SolTae_]

@Thinker_View Check le flux de @Vahid

[Tae @SolTae_]

@GlobalCollapse If the SEC determines there were material TOS violations that AppLovin failed to disclose to investors, this will become a securities fraud case rather than just a data privacy matter.

Pretty dismissive tone on your side though, no idea why.

[Tae @SolTae_]

@mikeaxolotl CEO Scott Lang explained for last earning call that they will release after the approval (that happened on 18th) the implications of the 5/5 approval. Guess they will revisit the whole pipeline value and gives more guidance.

[Tae @SolTae_]

@dallas_dia61451 @RobEducated 60% capacity increase, fair value still 3x from there.
Need some deals to assess properly Mhpop value.
Business is fully derisk in case M&A still on the cards

[Tae @SolTae_]

@OptionsFlowBoss This call was fire

[Tae @SolTae_]

@dan_tmt Top3 names on potential buyer?

[Tae @SolTae_]

@dan_tmt @eloi_mb Yes, 50% for accelerator hence 1.50 ish

[Tae @SolTae_]

FRMI

Listed REIT-style “AI power grid” play (co-founded by Rick Perry), building Project Matador / HyperGrid, an 11 GW private power + AI campus in Texas.

1GW ambition: they explicitly guide to ~1 GW online by end-2026, ramping toward 11 GW of generation for AI data centers (nuclear + gas + solar + storage).

“First-mover advantage”: their SEC filings talk a lot about establishing first-mover advantage in nuclear power development for AI/hyperscalers and building what could become one of the largest nuclear power complexes for compute.

Tenant / hyperscaler angle: as of the latest public docs, they:
- Have an Advance in Aid of Construction agreement (USD 150M) with a first prospective client, very likely an AI/hyperscale-type tenant.
- Are in talks / LOIs with “many hyperscalers,” but have not yet disclosed a fully binding long-term lease publicly.

[Tae @SolTae_]

@perry_lin1 Frmi

[Tae @SolTae_]

I’m not sure I buy the “OpenAI will structurally erode Google’s ad business” thesis. Like it feels like a surface view with no real deep dive.

Google is still a ~$70B FCF machine growing ~5% YoY. OpenAI, even at ~$13B revenue run-rate, has massive COGS and is nowhere near free cash flow break-even. Microsoft absorbing infra cost doesn’t change OpenAI’s economic reality if anything it highlights the lack of scalability on the cost side to me.

Product-wise, Sundar explained during earnings the exponential trajectory of tokens consumed by their end-products and this is accelerating with Gemini Nano + Veo. Google is scaling inference and integrating it deeply into Search, Workspace, and Android. Gemini Ultra is ~$150/year, so Google already reconstructed a revenue line comparable to OpenAI’s subscriptions, but with far healthier margins. Need to see how both lines compare over time.

On the engineering side, Gemini Code Assist in VS Code is now good enough that I’ve shifted most of my coding from Codex to Gemini, but I still honestly use Claude a lot. Gemini chat is also noticeably faster than ChatGPT. And Google’s photo/video stack (Veo, Imagen) is miles ahead to me, i dont see any sora edits on my twitter timeline whereas veo and nano edits are everywhere.

Financially, Google can take on debt, issue equity, scale infra, and still print cash. OpenAI can’t. Its equity is already heavily diluted, its credit capacity is extremely limited, and the business model is far from mature.

So I don’t really see how OpenAI is supposed to aggressively damage Google’s ads business unless you respectfully ignore how competitive Gemini has already become.

Among the 5 frontiers models (Gemini , Grok, ChatGPT, Claude and llama), 3 are part of positive fcf business, 2 are still startups. Pic changes if apple/amazon annonces massive merger or one of the mag7 comes out with a better ai product than current LLMs.

[Tae @SolTae_]

@laurashin @CryptoHayes I think people who didnot follow the bankruptcy are full of strong opinions but clueless about actual facts.

Time to talk with creditors properly…

[Tae @SolTae_]

@perry_lin1 Thx

[Tae @SolTae_]

@perry_lin1 Where can we read about it? It seems that i cant find it?

[Tae @SolTae_]

I did that back in Mid August if that helps

October 2024 Convertible Notes Offering (2.75% Notes due 2030)
Form 8-K Filed: October 24-25, 2024

Key Terms:
- Principal Amount: $500 million total (originally $350 million, upsized to $425 million, then $500 million with greenshoe)
- Interest Rate: 2.75% per annum, payable semi-annually on May 1 and November 1
- Maturity Date: February 1, 2030
- Initial Conversion Price: $8.48 per share (32.5% premium to the $6.40 closing price on October 23, 2024)
- Conversion Rate: 117.9245 shares per $1,000 principal amount

Capped Call Transactions:
- Cost: $60 million (approximately $51 million initially, increased with greenshoe)
- Cap Price: $12.80 per share (100% premium to the $6.40 closing price)
- Counterparties: Certain financial institutions (initial purchasers or their affiliates)
- Purpose: Reduce potential dilution and/or offset cash payments upon conversion

Use of Proceeds:
- $60 million for capped call transactions
- $115 million for share repurchases (17.97 million shares at $6.40)
- Remainder for general corporate purposes and HPC infrastructure expansion

August 2025 Convertible Notes Offering (1.00% Notes due 2031)
Form 8-K Filed: August 18-19, 2025

Key Terms:
- Principal Amount: $850 million (originally $400 million, upsized with $60 million greenshoe option)
- Interest Rate: 1.00% per annum
- Maturity Date: 2031
- Initial Conversion Price: $12.43 per share (32.5% premium to $9.38 closing price on August 18, 2025)
- Conversion Rate: 80.4602 shares per $1,000 principal amount

Capped Call Transactions:
- Cap Price: $18.76 per share (100% premium to the $9.38 closing price)
- Purpose: Same anti-dilution protection as October 2024 offering

Key Features of Capped Call Transactions:
- Structure: Private, over-the-counter derivative transactions separate from the convertible notes
- Function: Effectively increases the conversion price from the company's perspective to the cap price
- Anti-dilution: Provides protection against dilution up to the cap price
- Settlement: Can be settled in cash or shares at TeraWulf's election
- Hedge Activity: Counterparties may engage in hedging activities that could affect stock price

Redemption Features:
- Cannot redeem before November 6, 2027 (for 2030 notes)
- After that date, can redeem if stock trades at 130% of conversion price for 20 of 30 trading days
- Convertible only upon certain conditions before the final months before maturity

ON THE INTERPRETATION
- $850M convertible notes issued at 1.00% interest, maturing 2031
- Two batches of capped calls with different strike levels creating complex flow dynamics
- Current stock price: $9.38 (August 18, 2025)

Capped Call Structure - BEARISH PRESSURE:
- Batch 1: Cap at $12.80 - Market makers will sell heavily as price approaches
- Batch 2: Cap at $18.76 - Massive selling pressure near this level
=> Selling intensity increases exponentially the closer stock gets to each cap level

Convertible Notes Structure - BULLISH PRESSURE:
- Batch 1: Conversion price $8.48 (already breached - hedge funds buying)
- Batch 2: Conversion price $12.43 - Major buying pressure expected here
=> Hedge funds must cover short hedges by buying stock at conversion levels

Critical Price Levels & Flow Dynamics:
- $9.38 → $12.43: Net bullish (HF buying dominates, no cap pressure yet)
- $12.43: Massive bullish catalyst as 2nd batch conversion triggers HF buying
- $12.43 → $12.80: Battle zone - HF buyers vs. market maker sellers (1st cap)
- Above $12.80: Bears take control with accelerating selling from capped call hedges

Would make sense approaching $12 to witness a decent take profit.