Solana Edge Data

On-chain ML signals for Solana meme tokens. 87x better than random. Data, not hype. | By @nicolas_tursi

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

When experienced wallets move fast, it's worth paying attention.

This is one of the features that separates runners from the 99.54% that go nowhere.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

One of the strongest signals: early buyer positions.

→ Tokens with >5 early buyers: 2.1× lift over base rate
→ Above-median early buyer count: 1.8× lift

Early buyer wallets = concentrated, intentional capital entry in the first minutes.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

Social buzz does not predict success. On-chain capital flow does.

The lesson: engagement metrics measure noise. Volume, wallet activity, and early buyer positions measure signal.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

"More replies = more community interest, right?"

We tested this across 46,890 tokens.

Community reply count at 5 minutes showed **zero statistical difference** between runners and non-runners.

The distributions are nearly identical.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

@kunoo Rough. For context: across 46,890 Solana tokens, only 0.46% were genuine runners — 1 in 217.

The expected outcome isn't bad luck. It's the base rate.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

The model learns that momentum matters more than starting conditions.

A promising launch that doesn't build by minute 5 is already fading.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

Which features drive our model?

SHAP analysis on XGBoost:

→ Trade volume and transactions dominate at t5 and t10
→ Early buyer positions rank high across all snapshots
→ Wallet count anchors the prediction
→ t5/t10 features outweigh t0 metrics

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

The mediocre launch is the most dangerous signal. Either momentum is there or it isn't.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

Counterintuitive: peak valuation at launch has a failure zone.

Mid-range ATH (~$7,000): lowest runner rate.

→ Runners median ATH: $9,150
→ Non-runners: $7,000
→ Top quartile (>$8,300): 2.3× lift
→ Mid-range: 0.44–0.76× lift (failure zone)

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

Runners show elevated trade volume from minute 0.

Volume doesn't lie. It represents real capital moving, not narrative.

If volume is absent at launch, the data says: move on.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

The single strongest predictor of a meme token runner?

Trade volume in the first 10 minutes.

From 46,890 tokens:
→ Volume above P90: 3.8× lift over base rate
→ Volume above P95: 4.7× lift over base rate

[Nico con 19 ⭐️ @nicolas_tursi]

When I first saw 99.5% accuracy I thought something in the pipeline was wrong.

Then I looked at the confusion matrix. True positives: 0. Recall: 0%.

It had learned one rule: predict "not a runner" for everything — correct 99.5% of the time.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

The real metric: AUC-PR (area under the precision-recall curve).

→ Random baseline AUC-PR: 0.005
→ Best model (XGBoost): 0.099

That gap — tiny in absolute terms, massive in relative terms — is where the signal lives.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

Our worst model achieved **99.5% accuracy**.

It also detected zero actual winners. Every prediction: "not a runner."

With 215:1 class imbalance, always saying "no" is right 99.5% of the time. Accuracy is meaningless here.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

Putting "AI" in your meme token name is not a signal of innovation. It's a flag for lazy deployments chasing narratives.

On-chain fundamentals don't care about your ticker.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

Someone asked us: "Does having 'AI' in the token name help?"

We checked across 46,890 tokens.

Tokens with 'ai' in the name that became runners: zero.

Not one. Out of the entire dataset.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

Runner rate climbs monotonically with holder count.

More wallets = more demand = stronger signal. The data is unambiguous.

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

"Fewer holders = hidden gem."

We hear this constantly. We decided to check.

Across 46,890 Solana meme tokens:
→ Runners median: 6 wallets at launch
→ Non-runners: 2 wallets
→ Tokens with 50–99 wallets: 9.5× more likely to succeed

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

@kilorippy "Being early" on a token with no on-chain activity isn't early. It's the baseline for 99.54% of tokens that go nowhere.

Full data here: https://t.co/6KYWxmSjgm

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

We analyzed 46,890 Solana meme tokens launched on-chain.

The question: can you predict which ones will pump in the first 40 minutes?

Short answer: yes. Our best model is 87× better than random selection.

Here's everything we found. 🧵

https://t.co/KnylyHnVi2

[Solana Edge Data @SolanaEdgeData]

@kilorippy Counterintuitive finding: mid-range peak valuation (~$7,000 ATH) was the *failure zone* — worse than random.

Runners: higher ATH medians ($9,150 vs $7,000), elevated wallet count and volume from minute 0.