Bottom is in?
$BTC
- We have been in a downtrend since breaking below the daily EMA 21 at $100K.
- Every retest of the daily EMA 21 has resulted in rejection and new lows.
- After two months of downside, the rejections have become smaller, and we have even formed a higher low, similar to September 2024.
- If we turn $85K into support, the bottom might be in, and we could start targeting new highs.
$ETH
- Everything is disappointing compared to BTC, and you can see why, it has completely retraced the Q4 2024 pump and even gone lower.
- Technically, we are trading at a four-year range low within a monthly demand zone. This might be a good time to bid on Ethereum if you're prepared to hold through the pain.
- It remains in a bearish trend across all timeframes, so if you're buying here, it's likely because you believe in Ethereum as a technology.
- The lowest price? In a worst-case scenario, I think we could wick below $1,500 if BTC drops below $70K. However, buying at $1,800 or $1,500 won’t make much difference when ETH eventually trades above $10K. (DCA)
- I’d avoid leverage trades or any short-term plays as long as ETH remains below $2,500. If it reclaims $2,500, we’ll finally have a strong structure, and momentum could build to break $4K and push even higher.
$ETHBTC
- There are no words to describe the last two years of price action. I've been trading for over six years, but I've never seen anything like this, it has completely retraced the entire 2021 bull run pump.
- It has taken out the 2020 swing lows, with two more swing lows below. I'm not sure when this dump will stop, but for our mental health, it should find a bottom somewhere between 0.020 and 0.015. I don’t think it will go for the third low, which is the 2017 level.
- There won’t be an altcoin bull market until ETH/BTC bottoms and Ethereum takes the lead. So even if you’re a Solana guy and hate Ethereum, you need to accept this, Ethereum has to go up for altcoins to follow.
- I don’t know when this will bottom.
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