bitcoin:native Bitcoin's last two weeks:
Hit a 21-month low. Bounced 10%. Absorbed a "war".
Watched its biggest corporate holder flip from buyer to seller
markets bottom on bad news and top on good news
I just analyzed this and cant help but think the bottom may actually be in. My gut is telling me the Oct $40k'ish narrative is a psyop to keep retail waiting around...
$BTC
Everyone wants Bitcoin to be a bull or a bear right now.
Price above the 20-day average ($62.6K). Far below the 50-day ($65.8K). Miles below the 200-day ($74,236).
RSI 48. Dead center.
Momentum: bearish, but decelerating
Translation: short-term buyers have control. but the macro structure is still broken above ~$65K.
๐จ South Korea's stock market has been ๐ต๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป after falling over 8%, triggering automatic circuit breakers. A limit-down halt occurs when selling pressure exceeds the exchange's daily threshold, forcing a trading pause.
๐๐๐ฝ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ: A major Asian equity market halting limit down is a significant risk-off signal. For crypto traders, this typically means two things: near-term pressure on BTC and ETH as global risk appetite contracts, but also potential safe-haven flows if the selloff deepens and capital seeks alternatives to traditional equities. Watch for correlation breakdown โ if BTC holds while equities keep falling, the "digital gold" narrative gains traction. The earlier reports of surging trade defaults and margin stress across Asian markets suggest this isn't an isolated event.
source: KobeissiLetter
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This is the bull case for Bitcoin by the way.
If Bitcoin sweeps the low, the pattern would look a lot like prior patterns by GOOG and NVDA.
I would assume that the rally would not result in a new all time high, but a macro lower high, before going to the 200W SMA.
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When I distill down October 10th, I get to this...
Binance broke ( the worlds largest exchange). The API's shut down for market makers. Everyone got liquidated. Most market makers were not able to backstop liquidity. It spread across exchanges.
Those exchanges that have their own market makers or the ability to backstop prices probably absorbed a huge amount of liquidation in small caps and majors. Someone had to step in.
The equity Flash Crash in 2010 was similar.
That inventory, much like on a large market making desk, or program trading desk in equitie has to be unwound to reduce the extra risk they took on.
There has been 10's of billions of backstop liquidity to unwind. Some at huge losses, some at amazing profits.
It is not market manipulation.
If there was any, it was in the backstopping of prices when market makers couldn't due to technical issues...
This is what we are seeing today, in my mind. Those that backstopped the liquidity need to de-risk. In program trading we would see the same... every day liquidations to average out over time and reduce impact as much as possible.
Things are not liquidity right now so it has a large impact.
Year end audits and market liquidity constraints around year end mean that a lot needs to get finished now.
This too shall pass.
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These soft inflation numbers eased concerns about price pressures, especially after tariffs and other factors had raised fears or pretend fed fears. It reinforced hopes for continued Fed Rate cuts #BTC#CPI