SoundingCast

Self-Made Algorithm That Forecasts Tornadoes Using Soundings

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southeast Missouri
6-7-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 2%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southeast Saskatchewan
6-7-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 18%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Western Arkansas
6-6-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 3%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southeast Saskatchewan
6-6-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 2%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Eastern Ohio
6-6-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 3%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Eastern Ohio
6-6-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 7%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southeast Saskatchewan
6-6-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 10%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southern Iowa
6-5-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 4%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southeast Nebraska
6-5-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 2%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southeast Minnesota
6-5-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 1%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southeast Nebraska
6-5-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 8%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

@tornadorology @ConvChronicles Honestly that day was a decent localized tornado outbreak, but in terms of significant tornadoes it underperformed for sure.

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

The most notable days with this feature are April 28, 2025, and April 27, 2026.

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Multiple underperforming tornado environments seem to have a similar kinematic feature, where the majority of the speed shear in the ~2-8km layer is confined to a small section of the atmosphere.

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

My theory is that this may be resulting in convective inhibition. A surge in the mid level winds from the southwest may bring in a more pronounced elevated mixed layer at that level. Sometimes this feature seems to signal capping issues before the skew t portion of a sounding.

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southeast Nebraska
6-4-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 2%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Northeast South Dakota
6-3-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Western South Dakota
6-2-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 2%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Northern North Dakota
6-2-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 2%

[SoundingCast @SoundingCast]

Southern Kansas
5-30-2026
Estimated Tornado Risk - 0%