Sour

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

The dynamic of trading has certainly shifted. 24/7 is an understatement.

Never seen such significant moves after hours/over night as $KOSPI and $NIKKEI have become strong movers for the US market. We drive their PA as they do ours. With SK and Samsung being major factors of Kospi, the memory trade has become undeniably the most impactful in recent years. News of Burry’s $MU short colliding with Trump’s endorsement leaves little to the imagination.

Everything is easily accessible with technology’s improvement in the past decade, trading has never been so ubiquitous. Should be an interesting next few years to see how this shakes out. My guess is soon options will be available to trade outside of regular trading hours. There will eventually be no break in trading, just shifts on who runs the market at what hour.

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

Insert ambiguous statement about the market “crashing” overnight.
“Do you know what this means?”

Meanwhile, futures are down a MASSIVE… -0.2%

Fintwit is the biggest engagement bait platform bar none. Do not get spooked nor baited by these degens. Make your own decisions

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

Astrology* $SPY

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

@itsjcmerlo Relatable, my 450 shares over the past 2 trading days have, for lack of better words, washed out some of my YTD P/L. But no need for concern, i’ll check back in on that in a month or so and likely have a big smile on my face

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

Pay attention to $SPY today. If we give up 728 we could see more downside to 721 similar to 2 weeks ago. A break up to 730 could leave us chopping around all day (avoid calls or puts at this level) until a clear indication of which direction we are going.

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

I hope people understand truly what we are witnessing. You will often see people compare $MU to $NVDA 's legendary run, but I doubt many take it as a serious notion.
It's time to start taking it seriously... if Micron can hold these margins, it will see $3T Mkt cap in 1-2 years.

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

@Mr_Derivatives It will go back to single digits soon enough. There is no value as long as BTC remains pinned down. 8/21 $60P likely will pay handsomely, not financial advice.

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

@JUST_KAWS NBIS has shown great strength in the past couple weeks. If you wanted to stray from the memory trade due to MU earnings volatility, this would be a great alternative.

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

If you are panic selling today (excluding short-dated options) then I think you should take a nice long break from trading and come back when you’re ready to play the game

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

Now is not the time for caution.

No matter how absurd this market has been the past year, it may be wise to put aside any fundamental urges to get short.

Insane wealth is made daily, and we likely still have more space to run. Until YoY growth slows, maybe just ride the wave?

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

@DonMiami3 Don't sweat the 120 million barrels trapped in the Strait, Trump said Oil is flowing like water... we are good!! Cushing and SPR reaching operational floors doesn't mean anything!

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

@willrayvalentin It’s refreshing to see that there are still people on here who use their brain

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

It is ok to be wrong, but you must be able to come to terms with it and move forward.

There is infinite opportunity in this market, but if you have only been trading HIMS, OPEN, SOFI, GME in the past few months then I honestly feel a bit sorry for you. You could throw a dart at any memory/semi stock and see better returns. Sometimes following what seems “too obvious” really is the correct play.

$MU $SNDK $NVDA $NBIS $BE

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

@DudeWhoInvests The price of oil is no longer reliant on the status of the Strait. It has gone from $119 down to $80 without the actual removal of the barricade nor free flow of vessels in or out. The market is in it’s own world at the moment, I would avoid treating it as a logical instrument

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

@GavMcCracken Open or closed at this point makes no difference, the reality of the situation is inevitable. It will be physically impossible to continue the flow of barrels quickly enough to avoid the shortage. And sadly, once it gets priced in… the common person will suffer the most.

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

@WhaleFUD The moment China acts… the world will respond. Uncertainty of their current actions is the only thing keeping crude under $100 now. Demand destruction may be imminent late summer

[Sour @Sour_Trade]

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”

But the question is, how long can this market avoid the physical reality. With the strait closed (again) it delays the physical timeframe by an even larger amount. And each time we do this dance, we inch closer to realizing that we are in the largest crude supply disruption in history.

A deal signing does not indicate barrels flowing immediately. Who will move first? Are the mines still active? How long until the blockade is removed? Take the moment a deal is signed and ships are free to depart and add 3-6 weeks… that is when the physical will match the expected reality of the strait being open.

So now, with Cushing tank bottoms, SPR operating level speculations, China still remaining quiet, and Israel’s constant attempt to continue the war, can WTI really remain under $80? Is it not only a matter of time before we see April prices once again, but worse?

We will hopefully find the answer here soon enough, with WTI expiry on Monday, expect high volatility if Trump is unable to spin his typical story. I personally would not be short, but is betting on being right the correct move if the market is unable to act rationally?

$WTI $BRN $CL