Michael Ryan

Freight trader. Views are my own and not investment advice.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): What to Watch UK Open
Does the Lebanon ceasefire translate into US-Iran progress before the 7 June OPEC+ ministerial? Iran's 4-stage deal framework places Hormuz reopening in stage two.

Track whether the USGC VLCC list clears from 8 toward the 5-ship average. TI/Brent is approaching the level where even the Asia arb shuts; if it narrows further, TD22 stems dry up entirely and the list lengthens into double digits, adding switching pressure onto TD25 Aframax and USGC Suezmaxes.

Fade or follow TD25 at $45.73/mt with WTI uncompetitive into NWE? The rate has repriced +18.3% w/w on a tightening list, not on demand. If the list stabilises near 16 ships without fresh stems, the move fades; if USGC VLCC surplus switches down to Aframax stems, the list lengthens and the bounce reverses.

Are Greek owners front-running the Hormuz resolution trade? Bloomberg reports tankers gathering outside the Gulf wagering on reopening. If that positioning accelerates, it pre-loads the tonnage response and compresses the post-reopening rate spike — the snapback may be faster and sharper than the market expects.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

TD20 supply overhang eased from 7 vessels above average last week to just 2 today. Bonny Light crude RBI flipped to -$0.93/bbl from +$3.34/bbl last week. WAF barrels turning incrementally more competitive into NWE for the first time since the freight correction began. Freight RBI at -$20.41/mt, materially undervalued since mid-April. Three fixtures at 150-155 WS: Kribi to Far East, Qua Iboe to Savona, Nigeria to Sines: all 21-22 June laycans. July paper at 132 WS in light trading. Watch the Bonny Light RBI for the paper buy signal.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Far East MR prompt count has collapsed from 13 ships on 5 May to just 1 today against a 90-day average of 6; the tightest reading since early April. Ballaster counts steady since May, no material resupply in sight. Korea to Singapore at $0.69-0.705m on two fixtures this week as the Ulsan-Singapore diesel arb margin hovers at -$0.75/bbl. Grand Winner 7 fixed Korea to Australia at 310 WS. Private enquiries circulating. FSD model outlook effectively neutral. Owners: hold firm. Charterers: act now.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): US DPP Freight Morning Open What to Watch

TD3c snapback tail: size the downside even as the base case is sustained closure. Overnight escalation makes reopening a tail risk. But if diplomacy surprises ahead of the OPEC+ ministerial on 7 June, the 62-ship AG overhang reasserts — that is a violent correction lower.

TD25 momentum turn vs fading WTI export demand — which breaks first? The list tightened from 22 to 12 ships, but if US physical tightness continues pulling barrels inward, implied vessel demand drains and the tight list becomes a lagging indicator.

Iraq Ceyhan ramp: watch loading programme nominations. A credible ramp from 220 kbd to 770 kbd would absorb Suezmax tonnage ex-East Med, but first confirmation comes from loading nominations, not cabinet approvals.

St Petersburg terminal strike — Baltic loading disruption risk. Overnight Ukrainian drone strikes could temporarily disrupt Baltic loadings even as underlying export volumes are at 8-month highs. Any sustained outage tightens the Baltic Aframax list.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

USGC Aframax supply tightened from 22 to 12 ships over the past 10 days as the WTI RBI repriced from +$5.63/bbl overvalued on 25 May to -$2.16/bbl making USG loading economically attractive again. Three fixtures at 210-215 WS for mid-June USG to UKC laycans confirm the demand. June WDF firmed 20 points intraday yesterday; 210 to 215 to 230 WS. July paper ranged from 200 to 215 WS. Freight remains undervalued. Owners: push higher.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

TC2 at 141 WS is one of the three largest supply overhangs of the year at 25 ships against a 90-day average of 13. But Rotterdam to NY heavy naphtha open at +27.35 cpg as PADD 1 blenders pull components from ARA. WAF gasoline arb at +38.25 $/mt, Argentina at +14.10 cpg, Montreal mogas arb now open. Cargo demand picture is relatively bullish. Tonnage overhang is the problem. Forward curve flat at 145 WS through December. Watch ARA-to-NY blender margins for second-half July and August delivery as the paper entry signal.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): What to Watch
Hormuz escalation: do overnight strikes kill remaining deal odds? Iran's missile strikes on Kuwait and the U.S. disabling a sixth tanker mark a material escalation. If talks collapse, the TD3c geopolitical premium extends and the 62-ship AG overhang stays stranded. If Iran signals willingness to resume, that overhang reasserts and TD3c faces a sharp correction.

Iraq Ceyhan ramp to 770 kb/d: watch for East Med laycan clustering. Incremental Kirkuk stems at Ceyhan would generate Suezmax and Aframax demand in the Med — the first potential offset to the Atlantic basin overhang in weeks. Track whether Kirkuk clears on a delivered basis into Med refineries.

Fade or follow TD25 with collapsing USGC export economics? Momentum is turning up but WTI competitiveness is fading. If TI/Brent narrows further, implied vessel demand drains and the tightening list loses its catalyst.

NWE Aframax list below 44 ships: the TD7 trigger. Forties demand is durable but the 48-ship list must tighten before crude economics translate into rate support. Watch North Sea fixture pace this week.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD25 USGC Aframax momentum inflection is a trap without demand. The tightening list (12 vs. 14 avg) looks constructive, but TI/Brent is narrowing toward fair value, draining USGC export economics. VLCC switching pressure from 8 open ships caps any upside. Fade the inflection unless TI/Brent re-widens.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): Atlantic basin is drowning in tonnage with no relief in sight. TD20 WAF Suezmax list at 17 ships vs. 10 average and still lengthening; TD7 NWE Aframax at 48 vs. 44 average and lengthening; USGC VLCC at 8 vs. 5 average. Russian western port exports at 8-month highs and Guyanese barrels pulling NWE demand from WAF compound the overhang. Chartering in across the Atlantic, the list dictates terms — lean on it.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Every major WCI MR diesel arb is now open simultaneously; Sikka to Singapore at +$0.50/bbl in June, Sikka to Durban at +$9.65/bbl, Sikka to Dar-es-Salaam at +$0.65/bbl, Sikka to La Plata at +6.15 cpg. This is the widest arb opening seen out of WCI for diesel this year. Multiple destinations open at once means cargo demand pulls from multiple directions simultaneously. A strong signal for TC12 tonnage absorption. Vessel supply already 4 below the 90-day average. Owners: push above last done.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

WCI TC12 vessel supply at 10 against a 90-day average of 14. Sikka to Durban diesel open by +$7.90/bbl in June. Four Africa fixtures since last week: Jag Priya at 330 WS, Torm Singapore at 307.5 WS, Electa at ~300 WS EAfr, Jal Sitara at 285 WS SAfr. Sikka to Singapore diesel at -$1.5/bbl for late July delivery and approaching breakeven for mid-June loading at -$0.90/bbl. Russia's jet fuel export ban enacted 1 June, diesel ban risk elevated. FSD model flat at WS 271-272. Floor in. Owners should hold firm.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): US Open DPP Freight Morning Brief — 2 June 2026

Every route on the board is at 60-day lows this morning — the broad selloff flagged yesterday has deepened, with Aframaxes leading lower (–25% w/w), Suezmaxes following (–17%), and VLCCs the least extended (–18%) despite the Hormuz dislocation intensifying overnight after Iran halted talks and vowed to "completely" block the strait. Momentum is confirmed to the downside across all five routes, though TD25's d/d bounce hints at a potential inflection that the weekly trend has not yet validated.

TD20 Suezmax (WAF–UKC) is the week's biggest mover at $23.21/mt (Jul), down $5.14 w/w (–18%) and well below its two-month mean of ~$34/mt. TD3c VLCC (MEG–Asia) at $65.68/mt (Jul) is off $5.86 w/w (–8%) — the least extended on a percentage basis but still at 60-day lows with weakening momentum confirmed. TD22 VLCC (USGC–Asia) dropped $7.41 w/w to $51.85/mt (Jul) and was the last route to roll over, its momentum now cracking through the 5-day average and synchronising the selloff across the VLCC complex.

TD25 Aframax (USGC–UKC) at $42.94/mt (Jul) is down $7.51 w/w (–15%) and sits more than 35% below its 60-day mean — the most depressed route on the board relative to recent norms. It bounced $3.44 d/d into the close, but the 5-day average remains well below the 20-day, making this a technical bounce until the weekly trend confirms. TD7 (North Sea–UKC) at $16.21/mt (Jul) is off $1.52 w/w (–9%), also at 60-day lows. Yesterday's Alberta wildfire risk has faded — the fires are now classified as held after rain moved into the region.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

USGC MR diesel arbs workable across multiple destinations simultaneously. Houston to BA at +$9.25 cpg in June widening to +$12.55 cpg in July, Santos at +$2.10 cpg improving to +$9.95 cpg in July, San Jose gasoline at +$6.55 cpg. Houston to Rott MR diesel has recovered from -$24.75/mt to -$6.50/mt since mid-last week; approaching workable on MRs. ECSAM and Central American arb windows are structurally widening. The demand base for TC14 is broad and building. Freight is the cheapest input in this trade right now.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

TC14 at WS 255 on sub; up from 162.5 WS at the bottom of the correction. Long-haul ballasters clearing, prompt list without depth. Hou to BA diesel at +$9.25 cpg in June widening to +$12.55 cpg in July. San Jose gasoline at +$6.55 cpg. Houston to Rott prompt MR diesel arb has strengthened from -$24.75/mt to -$6.50/mt since mid-last week. FSD model says rates to go WS 223. Sentiment and phys market enquiry disagrees. Charterers covering reqs face open arbs and a thinning prompt list. Cover now before the model catches up.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): TD20 is the most overextended route and still has room to fall. Down 18.1% w/w and $10/mt below its two-month mean, WAF–UKC is repricing faster than any other Suezmax route — 17 open ships against a 10-ship average, Bonny Light unattractive into NWE, and Guyana pulling stems away. Charterers have full leverage; push below last done.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): USGC is the sole constructive pocket — TD25's list is turning. Record 5.6 mb/d US crude exports with WTI Midland deeply competitive into NWE and Asia are draining the Aframax list, down 5 ships w/w to 17 against a 14-ship average. Friday's $3.44 bounce is the only green print on the board. If chartering in, fix promptly at or above last done — but if the list stalls above 14 over the next two sessions, the bounce is dead-cat and fades.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI): WTI Midland is deeply competitive on a delivered basis into both Asia and NWE, with 35 of 48 Far East arbs open, yet rates cannot rally because the tonnage lists are long: TD25 carries 21 open Aframaxes versus a 14-ship average, and TD22's list is marginally long at 6 versus 5, but switching pressure from undervalued Suezmaxes (also 6 vs 5) and Aframaxes caps upside.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Leonidas (Sparta AI):

TD22 USGC VLCC is the highest-conviction long on the board. WTI Midland is deeply competitive into Asia on a delivered basis and strengthening, the USGC list is right on average at 5 ships, and freight RBI is undervalued by ~$9/mt. Every session Hormuz stays shut extends the tonne-mile advantage. Charter in at or above last done — owners have leverage and the fundamental bid is real.

TD7 North Sea Aframax: fix now before undervaluation corrects. Forties deeply competitive into NWE with freight RBI undervalued by $6.72/mt — the strongest implied demand signal on the Aframax board despite rates near 60-day lows. This is the dislocation most likely to snap back first.

USGC Aframax and WAF Suezmax tonnage gluts are real — stay patient.TD25 carries 22 ships against a 14-vessel average; TD20 has 16 against 9. Mars/Poseidon competitiveness could generate incremental USGC stems, but Med margin collapse limits upside. WAF is worse — Bonny Light deteriorating while Guyana pulls stems away. Charter in below last done on both routes.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

TC12 vessel supply below its 90-day average for seven consecutive weeks. Sikka to Dar-es-Salaam diesel open at +$4.85/bbl in June, Sikka to Durban at +$2.15/bbl — three Africa fixtures this week: Optimus at 340 WS ULSD, Al Reem at 315 WS, Jag Priya at 330 WS. Malbec Heritage fixed Sikka to USWC at $3.1m. US struck IRGC near Bandar Abbas overnight — Hormuz deal timeline widens again on Day 89. FSD model mildly negative but the floor is in. Owners: hold firm, do not discount.

[Michael Ryan @SpartaFreight]

Singapore MR prompt tonnage has dropped from 33 open vessels on 5 May to just 8 today; the sharpest tightening since December. Vessel supply at 8 against a 90-day average of 23, incremental demand at +2. Ecomar Gironde placed on subs Singapore to Cont at $3.15m, Eternal Sunshine on subs Muara to Australia at 325 WS ULSD, Gateway fixed Rayong to Japan on naphtha. Long-haul westbound, Australia distillate, Japan naphtha, and regional Indonesian flows all absorbing tonnage simultaneously. FSD model points WS 328 to WS 334; potentially conservative outlook. Owners: push above last done levels.