Speed Invest

Photonics, Power Semis, Memory. All returns are my own.

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@enrichtrades Any views on $AVGO here

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@optionscalps @4HeatherHill is that a yes haha?

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@optionscalps Is there somewhere where trades are logged or shared? discord?

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@enrichtrades ARM??

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@jtsla4 Ouch, take it easy on us broke college kids brother
Been here since day 1🤝

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@jtsla4 Take on $ASML?

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@jtsla4 @blademapai Can we get a look at institucional flow on $ASML brother?

[YG @a2ycapitalinc]

@CKCapitalxx @NighthawkTradez who is top, who is bottom here?

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@jtsla4 We are listening 👌

[Daniel Romero @HyperTechInvest]

BofA expects $AAPL to try to use CXMT DRAM to increase its bargaining power with Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung

Good luck with that...

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

Public equities are funny
All this proves is the memory supply imbalance is structural and is here to stay otherwise $aapl would just eat the price hikes for a year if it were cyclical
And yet $dram down ??

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Apple Negotiating To Buy Blacklisted Chinese Chips To Ease AI-Driven Shortage https://t.co/fVTFFYplHU

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

Good take… Michael Dell made a big donation to Trump accounts and then several months later $DELL won a big government contract.

I would expect a big announcement in the next couple months that benefits $MU, very likely has to do with import controls/taxes on Chinese memory.

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

only1Sam

[Sam Parikh @smartertrader]

omg here we going nuts

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

chippy rippy

[루팡 @DrNHJ]

마이크론(Micron, $MU) 주가 조정에 대한 미즈호(Mizuho)의 분석

$MU SK hynix Samsung $SNDK

미즈호(Mizuho)의 TMT 전문 애널리스트 조던 클라인(Jordan Klein)은 현재의 주가 하락을 우려하여 투자 기회를 놓치지 말라고 조언하며, 현재 시장에 퍼진 두 가지 악재에 흔들릴 필요가 없다고 강조했습니다

1. 애플의 중국 CXMT DRAM 조달설에 대하여
* 애플이 제재 대상인 중국 CXMT로부터 DRAM을 조달하려는 움직임은 마이크론만의 문제가 아닌, 업계 전반의 심각한 메모리 공급 부족 상황을 방증하는 사례입니다.

* 마이크론에 미치는 영향: 마이크론은 이미 소비자용 기기에서 벗어나 HBM, 고성능 LPDDR DRAM, 자동차 및 산업용 고객으로 포트폴리오를 성공적으로 전환했습니다.

* 실현 가능성: 미국 정부의 승인 여부가 불투명할 뿐만 아니라, 중국 내부의 막대한 메모리 수요 때문에 중국 정부가 해당 공급을 해외로 돌릴 가능성은 낮습니다.

2. 한국의 반도체 공장 증설 발표에 대하여
* 핵심 분석: 최근 SK하이닉스, 삼성전자, 한국 정부가 발표한 4개 신규 메모리 팹(Fab) 증설 계획은 정치적 신호(Political Signaling)의 성격이 강합니다.

* 실질적 영향: 당장 올해나 내년에 확정된 자본 지출(CAPEX) 계획이 없습니다. 마이크론 역시 자체적으로 4개의 신규 팹 건설 계획을 보유하고 있기 때문에, 한국의 발표가 마이크론에 파괴적인 위협이 되지는 않을 것으로 분석됩니다.

3. 시장 전망: "공급 부족은 실재한다"
* 현재 메모리 시장은 수요 대비 공급 부족이 매우 심각한 상황입니다.
* 팀 쿡(Apple CEO): 메모리 부족 사태를 "세기에 한 번 있는 홍수(Once in a century flood)"라고 표현했습니다.
* 일론 머스크: 이러한 발언에 동조하며, 수요 대비 생산 능력의 격차가 "미친 수준(Insane)"이라고 평가했습니다.

조던 클라인은 단기적인 뉴스보다는 "공급 부족"이라는 펀더멘털이 마이크론과 메모리 업종에 훨씬 더 중요하다고 강조하며, 투자자들에게 흔들리지 말 것을 당부했습니다.

[degentrading @degentradingLSD]

@labubu_trader CXMT pricing is only 5% below , after you adjust for quality etc, there is no discount lol

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

Great read, agree $aapl just farming noise for stronger negotiating power

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

My prediction on $AAPL / CXMT and the future of Memory.

Everyone's panicking about $AAPL lobbying to buy CXMT memory.

I want to show you what the patterns have shown before, using a resource China already ran this exact playbook with: Tungsten.

Memory pricing ripped, $AAPL and the hyperscalers are calling it gouging, and $AAPL is now reportedly leaning on the Trump admin for permission to buy DRAM from China's CXMT to get out from under $MU, $000660 (SK Hynix) and $005930 (Samsung).

The unspoken threat is that China undercuts the West on memory and the whole supercycle unwinds.

We have already seen this movie. It was called Tungsten.

China holds somewhere around 82-90% of global tungsten. The lazy bear case is the exact same arguement that people are now saying about memory: China owns it, China floods it, the price dies. It's a lie.

Here's what actually happened instead.

First, they stopped selling it. Chinese raw APT exports to the West hit zero in early 2026. Not trimmed, ZERO.

And it wasn't just tungsten, it was gallium, germanium, antimony, then sulfuric acid, each one added to the list, the direction only ever tightening.

Then the twist nobody had in their model. The country sitting on 90% of the supply started importing it aggressively.

> Concentrates: imports up 153% yoy, value up 738%.
> APT: imports up 995%, value up 878%.
> Total tungsten IMPORTS: up 98%, value up 336%.

Sit with that. The dominant producer on earth is buying tungsten off Rwanda, Bolivia, Portugal, whoever will sell, and paying up to a 738% premium?

The reason is the whole point: sitting on the reserves is not the same as having spare to sell. Chinese ore grades are falling, quotas got cut, domestic mine auctions failed because the rock wasn't worth digging, and home demand (tungsten wire for solar, defence, tooling, chips) went vertical.

They can't even feed themselves. So they killed exports and turned net importer in the same breath.

Now line that up against memory.

Owning the most on paper means nothing if your own demand swallows everything you make.

"We'll just sell it cheap to the West" only works if you have a surplus, and a net importer paying 738% premiums does not have a surplus. They're fighting for the same scarce supply as everyone else.

CXMT is the same story. The read across the industry is that CXMT can't cover China's own memory demand this decade, let alone export commodity DRAM cheaply into the US. It's the tungsten flood thesis wearing a different jacket, and it'll age just as badly.

And the "cheap Chinese memory" pitch falls apart on the details anyway:

$CXMT sits roughly three years back on process, G4 DDR5 around 1znm-class while the big three run 1a/1b. With no EUV access, that gap on advanced nodes and HBM stacking is structural, not something they close in a couple of quarters.

The "affordable" CXMT DDR5 angle looks like a myth too, the pricing reportedly lands right alongside Samsung, Hynix and $MU.

So even if $AAPL gets its waiver, it pays roughly the same price for a worse, later part, just to wriggle out of an LTA, while handing Huawei the China market advantage (Huawei already taps CXMT and has its own memory fab through the SwaySure JV).

So for anyone holding memory, whether $AAPL actually onboards CXMT or not is basically noise.

CXMT's output is already fully spoken for inside China. Nothing is flooding anywhere. It's a thin price arbitrage trade being marketed as an existential threat, the same way people spent a year waiting for China to turn the tungsten taps back on. They never did.

Marco Rubio quote this in 2022, when $AAPL originally tried to buy from YMTC - "Apple was playing with fire, they are subject to scrutiny like it has never seen from the dereal government" - fast foward 4 years later and hes one of Trumps closest confidants.

And honestly, the $AAPL angle reads as weakness, not strength. When a consumer hardware giant has to lobby its own government for access to a rival's inferior memory because it can't stomach paying for the resource the entire AI stack now runs on, that tells you exactly where the leverage sits, and it isn't with the buyer.

How I'm trading it: these " $AAPL runs to China " headlines are setup to push memory names down short term. That's the gift, not the risk.

Any deep flush in Samsung, Hynix or $MU on this stuff, I will keep dip buying on, because the one fact that actually matters (China can't supply its own memory demand, exactly like tungsten) hasn't moved an inch.

The fud everyone keeps modelling isn't coming back.

Tungsten already ran this experiment and told us what happens when you bet on China flooding something it can't even supply itself.

Memory's about to hand the same lesson to everyone still long the gouging story.

NFA. DYOR. Any pushback is welcome, as I might be wrong.

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@smartertrader The goat!!

[The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes) @theserfstv]

It's a Cybertruck

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

@jtsla4 So strong, I couldn’t get filled

[Speed Invest @SpeedInvests]

Let the fools despair, we march on 💸

[Sam Parikh @smartertrader]

i think in 50 yrs we wont need memory.. so lets short today...

lol how can these clowns even exit