Mathias

Basketball Data Scientist
Illinois | Marquette

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

First try on this game - not bad! @databallr

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

@LawrenceWank @Jqdvnq I’ve been around for a while. Most of my content is lost to time as I became more professional and entered the job market haha

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

Official @Spitzanity 2026 NBA Draft Board

If you are familiar with my work, you know it is very analytics have with tons of practical and academic research put into it. Any player who is not listed is, in my opinion, unlikely to ever return replacement level value at their peak.

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

@LawrenceWank @Jqdvnq Here is last year’s! Definitely had some slight methodological shifts since then that I’ll talk about in another reply. Still not too upset with it a year out!

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

Here is my final NBA draft board for 2025!

Only included players that I considered draftable and have any reasonable chance of recouping pick value and/or returning average to above average metrics in the NBA.

Happy to hear any thoughts!

*Numbers don't matter as much as tiers

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

On Mikel Brown - I like the size, shooting touch, and passing, but I’m lower than consensus until I’m sold he’s a primary creator. Significant concerns on his shot diet and his ability to get his jumper off against top defenses. Impact numbers are fairly mid for someone his age as well. The archetype risk for non-elite guards is just so high when it comes to actually impacting and winning basketball games.

On Jayden Quaintance - The defensive tools are obvious lottery-level, but the ACL/meniscus history, limited sample, and offensive rawness make the range of outcomes really wide. If it wasn't obvious, I am a huge fan of proven prodution. JQ does not really have that in my opinon.

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

@mygoatwardell @Fiizop Totally understand. Here is what I said on Lopez: https://t.co/2VTRIlyVv2

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

On Karim - I have him ranked highly because he combines age-adjusted pro production, NBA forward size, defensive playmaking, rebounding, and enough shooting/playmaking touch to project into a valuable modern wing/forward role. Positive A/TO, 2.2 stocks, and about 74% from the line helped him sneak into that tier for me. Maybe the only player I'd consider dropping at this time, though.

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

@legacyTSJr The Elite Eight loss dropped him for me 😏

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

Okorie is actually my first guy off the board. I struggled with that one a lot. I am probably overweighting NBA size/archetype risk. He is a smaller scoring guard, so the question is whether his scoring translates against NBA length and whether he can be a true lead guard instead of an undersized scorer. Semi-promising stock numbers, but it still feels like he'll be an easy target on that end. But based on production, age, and efficiency, I could see the argument for moving him up into that last tier.

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

On Karim - I have him ranked highly because he combines age-adjusted pro production, NBA forward size, defensive playmaking, rebounding, and enough shooting/playmaking touch to project into a valuable modern wing/forward role. Positive A/TO, 2.2 stocks, and about 74% from the line helped him sneak into that tier for me. Maybe the only player I'd consider dropping at this time, though.

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

@Fiizop Some of my methodology might inherently be anti-consensus, but this isn't a full anti-cog model. Can explore that further though if interested.

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

*analytics heavy

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

As always this is a big board, NOT an attempt at a mock draft. Feel free to have healthy disagreements or ask questions about a particular ranking/non-ranking.

Rankings within tiers are semi-flexible. Players moving tiers is unlikely at this point. Thanks all!

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

Midwest gas station rankings:
1. Kwik Trip
2. Casey’s

Gap

3. Circle K

Is there literally anywhere else worth going?

#GasStationFC

[Milwaukee Brewers @Brewers]

What's funny about the sweep situation is...

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

Does film have a place in statistical evaluation in basketball? If so, how much weight does each hold? Problems with mixing quantitative and qualitative analysis?

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

My first research poster of graduate school if anyone is interested #SpreadsheetFC

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

@pmmbasketball Sandro Mamukelashvili
Isaiah Joe
Derrick Jones Jr

Probably not actually top 20. Though they are the first names that come to my mind that most people don’t usually mention.

[Marquette Basketball @MarquetteMBB]

An official welcome to the #MUBB Family.

📖: https://t.co/hIFcDR0PX6

#WeAreMarquette | #RGV

[Mathias @Spitzanity]

#TheRedemption

[The Field of 68 @TheFieldOf68]

NEWS: St. Thomas transfer Nolan Minessale has committed to Marquette, per @BenSteeleMJS

He averaged 19.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 4.3 APG this past season.

[Evan Miyakawa @EvanMiya]

Talk about getting back in the transfer portal, this is a phenomenal get for Marquette!

Sananda Fru is the 4th best transfer at https://t.co/cegyfz8ykZ. He is the best player in the entire portal at finishing inside the arc, and is an elite offensive rebounder and rim protector.