Split Ticket

Political analysis at your fingertips. By @lxeagle17, @hwlavellemaps, @Thorongil16, @politicsmaps, @maxtmcc | 🎤 ✉️ [email protected]

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Our 2026 midterms model is out and will be hosted at @TheArgumentMag.

Projections as of 6/19:

House: 🟦 85% (229D-206R)
Senate: 🟥 57% (50R-50D)
https://t.co/cm3ZZ9Is6q

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

https://t.co/rcjTh26ClM

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

The final @SplitTicket_/@TheArgumentMag model update, run with today's polls.

Senate: 53D-47R (77% 🟦)
House: 239D-196R (92% 🟦)

The data unambiguously says something. It's just that nobody seems to actually believe it. We'll see if that's warranted.
https://t.co/w6EmyZoWmu

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

From our generic ballot estimations, after adjusting for uncontested races. https://t.co/O5NoRC1EWB

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

A tale of two blue waves: 2008 vs 2018.

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

From @ECaliberSeven:
https://t.co/cxo8dFZsor

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

As we've previously written, candidate quality and national environment can have substantial impacts on any given candidate's performance.
This year, with two states bidding farewell to incumbents, it's time to consider how incumbent party fatigue can help the "out" party.

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Join us. https://t.co/hQbL7GSsxB

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Join us. https://t.co/hQbL7GSsxB

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Some news: Split Ticket is joining The Argument.

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Deconstructing our Wins Above Replacement model and explaining how it works, for all curious. (And why progressives don’t do as well in it)

https://t.co/sgFd3ZWlNl

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

With the House up for grabs in 2026, candidate quality could be decisive. Both parties face challenges, but strong recruits may tip the balance in key races:
https://t.co/6dybDB8IMf

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

For our last piece with @PostOpinions, we take a look at how the Democratic Party’s base has changed since 2016 — and in area after area, the party’s voters have become more liberal across the board, even though its leadership has not always agreed. https://t.co/vdOrhLbNzL

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

The Texas GOP is set to use an old trick: redrawing Democratic-held congressional districts mid-decade. With Trump urging action, legislators could redraw 2–5 seats—echoing the 2003 playbook and potentially changing the 2026 House calculus. Read more here: https://t.co/JrIe9L6urv

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Six House Democrats in New England significantly outperformed Kamala Harris with low-propensity voters. Their edge? Moderate, bipartisan profiles—centrist voting records that resonated in crossover districts in an age of brutal polarization. https://t.co/ablALmrWmI

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

How did turnout look in the 2024 election? We break it down from a geographic and demographic perspective. https://t.co/5RmJZ7FdJQ

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Split Ticket will be hosting a space to discuss the results of today’s primary elections in New Jersey as they come in.

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

The real reason Democrats can't compete for 60 Senate seats isn't just the "structural bias of the Senate". It's because ticket splitting collapsed over the last decade. Using our WAR models, we can show how the impact of candidate quality has plummeted.

https://t.co/o88kiOYrt0

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Any corrections or questions are welcome. We hope this database helps people better understand candidate quality.

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Today, Split Ticket is releasing a brand new set of Wins Above Replacement models, this time for the 2016 cycle. Our hope is that political observers can benefit from this new dataset to better understand candidate quality.

We'll have a more detailed analysis up soon.

[Split Ticket @SplitTicket_]

Finally, a full, downloadable candidate quality database can be found here. This contains five cycles of data, from 2016-2024. To download it, click "Get The Data" on desktop. https://t.co/HzxgkGOOvR