Let’s be honest: Most WS analysts are used to being spoon-fed. And most CEOs hate providing guidance. They do it because their competitors do it. $TSLA not providing guidance just means WS has to do its own research, which is how it should be anyway.
@elonmusk is wired differently than most CEOs. TSLA’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. Providing WS guidance doesn’t further that mission in any way. TSLA’s 4Q results were actually better than WS expected stripping out accounting adjustments and non-cash tax rate changes going forward. Gross margins ex-reg credits grew QoQ to 17.2% as auto COGS per unit fell -8.5% YoY, supporting the thesis that auto gross margins bottomed in 3Q at 16.3%.
Last night, $TSLA declined to cut US prices on a Thursday, which is when 90% of TSLA price changes occur. Recall Elon’s comment on the earnings call that “If interest rates come down quickly, I think margins will be good.” As one of my clients @drjeffyu suggested yesterday It may also mean that going forward Elon is willing to sacrifice short term volume growth for profitability. As TSLA learned in 2023, cutting price doesn’t necessarily lead to more volume.
What we saw Wed night was Elon saying GFY to Wall Street. With the former CFO gone, Elon likely said let’s stop this silly custom of providing annual volume guidance to WS at the beginning of the year, which we are then beholden to the rest of the year. I’m actually good with that. As an analyst my job is to figure out the intersection of volume and price and forecast the stock price accordingly. It’s not written down anywhere that CEOs have to guide anything about the coming year. TSLA investors had a fit yesterday because they are used to be being spoon-fed the company’s outlook and now they have to do their own research. We all need to grow up. @elonmusk@MartinViecha
Next week, I will do a company talk for SpaceX, followed later by a company talk for Tesla after the 10K.
I will recap the talented team’s amazing accomplishments of 2023 and describe exciting plans for 2024 and beyond!
These will be posted publicly to @SpaceX and @Tesla.
@TeslaSynopsis It is already on a lot of cars, but, given that is a completely new architecture, we are doing extra testing.
It works very well in California, but needs more training for heavy precipitation areas.
BREAKING: Tesla has introduced Optimus Gen 2!
• Tesla designed actuators and sensors
• 2-Dof actuated neck
• Actuators integrated electronics & harnessing
• 30% walk speed boost
• Foot force/torque sensing
• 22lb weight reduction
• and more
$TSLA 🇨🇳
Tesla sold 82,432 China-made vehicles in Nov.
In the January-November period, Tesla sold 853,603 China-made vehicles, up 30.31 percent from the same period last year.