@smootherthnsilk@sundoglighting@JasonHarmonNFL When is the last time an 0-3 team, on the road, with 0 time outs, scored a TD, recovered an onside kick, and scored a 2nd touchdown vs a top 3 defense in under 2 minutes?
Its interesting math.
3 miniscule chances (bad snap returned for a TD) that would mean losing the game vs
Odds Miami scores, recovers onsides kick, and scores again with 0 time outs in under 2 minutes.
The straight odds likely favor the kneel down but for me I would take a two possession lead and force my opponent to get 3 consecutive rare things right vs 3 snaps very unlikely to go wrong but if 1 snap goes wrong likely to lose the game.
The actual math is something like ~0.03% chance Miami wins (3 snaps at ~0.01% odds of a bad snap AND 99 yard return) vs ~0.05% odds Miami scores, recovers onsides kick with new rules, then scores again. 6% score a TD less than 90 seconds AND 6% onside recovery AND 15% get 15-30 yards and make a FG in under 30 seconds with no time outs.
Four Week 4 NFL Top OVER bets by share of money
Lions–Panthers: 97%
Texans–Cowboys: 92%
Bengals–Jaguars: 83%
Rams–Eagles: 82%
Bet with the public? Against it? Or wait for a better live TOTAL number in game?
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Washington opened +4.5.
Then the live market started moving:
• Recovers a fumble → +2.5
• Settles for a FG → +1.5
• Drives 70 yards for another FG → -2.5, flipping to the favorite
• Back-to-back punts → +2.5
• Interception → -1.5
• Turnover on downs → +2.5
Same game. Same team. A 7-point swing in the live spread driven possession by possession.
This is exactly what SportSimulate is built to show.
https://t.co/Y297J0K8pe
8 Drives in the First Quarter
Colts = Fumble, 3 and out, 3 and out, 5 and out
Was = 8 yds FG, 70 yds FG, 5 and out
Spread moved between Was +4.5 to -2.5
Total moved from 49.5 to 38.5
Visualize all of this at https://t.co/Y297J0K8pe
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Chargers strike first in Buffalo, and the market reacts immediately.
BUF opened -4.5, traded as far as -7.5, and is now down to -2.5 with 9:52 left in Q1.
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