Michael Leone

Southern California Native. Married with a beautiful family. Loves real estate, investing, helping others, and sharing my experiences. Life is a journey !

[Gary Vaynerchuk @garyvee]

Give me kind as fuck and “B” skills over Complete asshole with “A+” skills. How you interact with the other boys and girls matters the most!

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

Bruce Lee was right when he said:

“The most dangerous person is the one who listens, thinks, and observes.”

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

Thoughts on $META earnings

Very strong quarter despite the headlines. Revenue grew 28% to over $60b, impressions increased 14%, average price per ad increased 12%, and the advertising business looks healthy.

The issue wasn’t demand, it was spending. Costs jumped 55%, operating margin fell from 43% to 31%, that caused eps to miss by 14%, and capex guidance was raised again, albeit slightly, to an astonishing $140b

To me, this is the same story we’re seeing across its counterparts. The smartest people in the world are investing the largest amounts of capital in history, making enormous promises about AI. They may ultimately be right and create trillions of dollars of value. But they’re also asking investors to accept an extraordinary amount of uncertainty.

Everyone thinks they’re investing in AI, they’re really not. They’re investing in management’s ability to allocate hundreds of billions of dollars intelligently.

The market isn’t saying Zuckerberg is wrong. It’s saying, “show me the returns.” Spending money is easy, earning exceptional returns on that money is the hard part. History is full of companies that spent fortunes chasing the future and destroyed shareholder value along the way.

Every hyperscaler is spending because every hyperscaler feels like it has to spend. That doesn’t automatically mean every dollar invested will earn an exceptional return. Every dollar spent on AI is also a dollar that can’t be used for buybacks, acquisitions, dividends, or other opportunities. Capital always has an opportunity cost.

I’ve been thinking a lot about this so called AI arms race. If I had to bet, I’d probably bet it works for $GOOG, $AMZN, etc. But there’s a subtle difference between investing because the opportunity is extraordinary and investing because not investing may be even more dangerous. I think the hyperscalers are in the second camp. They may still earn phenomenal returns, but they don’t really have the luxury of saying no. Companies like $AAPL do. That’s a very different capital allocation decision and predicament to be in.

Ultimately, I don’t care what $meta spends this quarter. I care what these investments earn over the next decade. If this AI buildout generates extraordinary returns on capital, today’s spending will look brilliant. If it doesn’t, investors will eventually wonder why hundreds of billions of dollars were deployed in the first place and punish the stock.

The market doesn’t hate spending, it hates uncertainty. Until the returns become more visible, this is less a debate about AI and much more a debate about capital allocation. That’s what will ultimately determine shareholder value. 🌹

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

$GOOG Cloud is an incredible business. TPUs have effectively turned it into a company selling supercomputing as a service. But I think investors are overlooking what $AMZN is building inside AWS.

Andy Jassy has essentially told investors the answer. Trainium should save AWS tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditures while improving operating margins by several hundred basis points. That’s what happens when you stop renting someone else’s economics ($NVDA), and start creating your own.

The beauty of AWS is that $AMZN controls almost the entire stack. They don’t just build chips. They own Trainium, Inferentia, Graviton, Nitro, the networking, the cloud, the software, the databases, and the customer relationship. In simple terms all this means they are “vertically integrated”. Every improvement they make to Trainium benefits the entire AWS ecosystem, making the business stronger with every generation.

I also don’t think investors appreciated another comment from Jassy. He estimated $AMZN’s internal chips business is already running at more than a $20 billion annual revenue run rate, and said it could be roughly a $50 billion business if they sold chips externally like $NVDA. That’s a remarkable statement because it suggests $AMZN may have built an enormously valuable business that many investors barely include in their valuation.

I think investors are asking the wrong question. They keep debating whether AWS will beat $MSFT or $GOOG. I think the better question is which company can continually lower the cost of intelligence. If $AMZN keeps reducing the cost of compute with each generation of custom silicon, those savings can be shared with customers through lower prices while simultaneously making AWS stronger.

That’s the beauty of economies of scale shared. The customer gets a better deal, AWS becomes more competitive, demand increases, scale improves, costs fall even further, and the flywheel keeps spinning. Those are the kinds of businesses that can compound for a very long time. 🌹

[sodiq olalekan @EmperorH50]

Discipline will take you where motivation never can.

[Nonzee @0xNonceSense]

🚨 SPACEX SELLOFF IS THE SETUP. NOT THE STORY.

Everyone is watching the $SPCX unlocks.

Nobody is watching the deal behind it.

Tesla is converting its $2B xAI stake into direct ownership of SpaceX.

Once it closes, TSLA holders own SpaceX without touching a single $SPCX share.

That is the first move of a merger.

Wedbush puts the odds of a full merger by 2027 at 80-90%.

He has done this before.

2016: Tesla absorbed SolarCity. Wall Street called it a bailout.

TSLA then ran 4,828%.

Every $10,000 became $500,000.

Now he is doing it at ten times the scale.

The unlock wave drives $SPCX straight into my zone before the merger is priced in.

My accumulation zone: $85 to $100.

That is pre-merger SpaceX while the crowd is still trading unlock fear.

SolarCity holders waited ten years for the payoff.

This one reprices in months.

Reminder: I warned before Gold and Silver topped, before Oil collapsed, before SpaceX dropped, and before Bitcoin broke.

When $SPCX hits my zone, I post the exact level publicly.

Turn notifications on before the market figures out what he is building.

[bee🐝 @0xbeehive]

ELON IS QUIETLY SETTING UP HIS BIGGEST MOVE EVER

Everyone's staring at the $SPCX dump and missing what's being assembled

Tesla is set to convert its $2B xAI stake into a direct SpaceX shareholding

The moment that happens, TSLA holders become SpaceX shareholders without buying a single share

That's step one of the SpaceX x Tesla merge

Wedbush puts 80-90% odds on the full merger by 2027

Sounds like hype until you check the precedent

2016: the Tesla x SolarCity merge, everyone called it a bailout

The stock ran +4,828% over the next decade, $10k became half a million

Now the same play is forming at 10x the scale

And the unlock dump everyone's afraid of is handing out the entry

My zone stays $85-$100, a pre-merger price on the biggest structural move of the decade

SolarCity holders waited 10 years for their payoff

This one won't need that long

[Codie Sanchez @Codie_Sanchez]

If I could only say one thing to my 20 year old self, it would be this:

[Vaibhaw Purohit | Motivation @FreakyTheory]

Keep going.

[Codie Sanchez @Codie_Sanchez]

I win more often when I:
- workout early in the am
- learn something new daily
- start the day with gratitude
- obsess on finishing one thing

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

“It takes a lot of hard work to make something simple.”

— Steve Jobs

[Gary Vaynerchuk @garyvee]

I don't give a fuck if you've lost every job and nobody likes you and you're 39. You're not even at halftime. You're just losing right now. You're not a loser.

[Codie Sanchez @Codie_Sanchez]

Keep going.

[AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 @TeslaBoomerMama]

Still true

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

You call this investing?

Oracle $ORCL in June: a $700 billion company. Oracle today: $122, down roughly 50% in six weeks. From the September peak near $346, the stock has lost about 64%.

This is not a broken startup. It's a 48-year-old database giant. What broke is the balance sheet math:

– free cash flow: minus $23.7 billion
– capex: $56 billion, up 162% in one year
– net debt: $97.6 billion, and another $40 billion of financing announced
– S&P downgrade to BBB-, one notch above junk
– 21,000 jobs cut, headcount down 13%

Against that: a $638 billion order backlog, much of it resting on OpenAI's ability to pay. Record bookings, and the market sells anyway. Because a contract is a promise, and the debt is a fact.

When a company borrows against the future faster than the future can arrive, the stock stops trading on earnings. It trades on faith. And faith reprices in weeks, not years.

Quality means never having to hope your biggest customer finds funding.

[Andy @andyantiles_]

I have a $500K investment in $TSLA stock

When Elon achieves the $8.5 Trillion market cap to unlock his $1B pay day

My investment will be worth $3.4m

I will then borrow $1m against my equity position

And buy 30 section 8 rental properties

That $1m I deployed to buy the 30 homes

- Will cashflow ~$200k per year

- Generate $1m in tax deductions

- And magically turn into $5m when my tenants finish paying off the debt for me (excluding appreciation)

Debt is extremely powerful when used correctly