Something bigger than a “ceasefire” has happened…
Trying to process this properly
For the first time
Hormuz being framed as paid passage
Not temporary
structured
• ~$2M per vessel
• ~100–120 ships/day pre-war
• $70–90B annual potential
Put that next to this
~20–21M barrels/day flows through there
~20% of global supply
So it’s not just control of oil
it’s control of the flow of oil
And that’s different
Iran potentially earning more from transit
than from selling its own barrels
That’s a shift in how power is expressed
Then the structure around it
• passage coordinated under Iranian oversight
• reopening tied to broader terms
• fees linked to reconstruction
So this isn’t a quick fix
it’s trying to become a system
Now zoom out a bit
US probably doesn’t accept a permanent toll
on global energy flows
Iran’s leverage… is the chokepoint itself
That tension doesn’t go away easily
If this holds
oil, shipping, inflation all start to reprice structurally
If it doesn’t
we’re back to disruption
Either way
this isn’t just about conflict anymore
it’s about who gets to price global energy transit
That’s the part I keep coming back to
This doesn’t look like a normal ceasefire…
2-week pause agreed
but the structure is different
Hormuz reopens
but under Iranian control
ships coordinating with Iranian forces
$2M per vessel transit fee
Risk assets pushing higher
oil pulling back fast
markets are trading relief