Stack Data Strategy

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[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

Fascinating analysis of the current electoral landscape in the UK featuring a line from our director @AaronIftikhar - the Reform base is real and growing, presenting a challenge for both Labour and the Conservatives

[Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford]

Exclusive:

* Reform has a core of 1.7million voters who identify with the party. It is far more than a protest vote. If Badenoch wants to win she can’t do it by just winning back tactical voters and disenchanted Tories - she needs to go for Reform’s support directly

* Labour has endured the biggest fall ratings for any newly elected government in history, going from -26 a month after the election to -49 after six months

* Labour’s vote is vulnerable on all sides. Only two thirds of those who backed Labour in 2024 remain loyal to the party while 11% would now vote for the Liberal Democrats, 10% for Reform UK, 5% for the Greens and 4% for the Tories

* Over a quarter of Labour’s seats - just over 100 - have a majority of less than 10 per cent

* Reform was held back by the spread of its geographical support last time - 4million votes translated into just 5 seats. But that spread could now work in it’s favour and see it make breakthroughs across the country

https://t.co/eepGItu9Jh

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

Interesting analysis of the upcoming German election by @OwenWntr featuring some of our data! For more on the election see our recent Election Note: https://t.co/2PaUWjjiRw

[Owen Winter @OwenWntr]

How are Germans planning to vote? I took a look, with five charts and a bunch of data 🇩🇪📈

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

How did we uncover the secrets of a great traitor? 🕵️‍♀️

After The Traitors final, we ran a conjoint experiment: we showed people pairs of hypothetical traitors, asked who’d be better, and repeated hundreds of times. The result? A deep dive into what viewers value most. 🤔✨

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

What makes a good traitor? 👀

We asked, you answered: #Traitors viewers say Deceptiveness and Charisma are the ultimate must-haves. Forget strategy—it's all about the mind games. 🕵️‍♂️✨

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

@BBC @ClaudiaWinkle @studiolambert @the_traitors_ @scottygb

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

Fragmentation— on the right from Conservative to Reform, on the left from Labour to Green—is evident across all ages. The growing demand for alternatives isn’t just a youth phenomenon; it’s reshaping UK politics. 🗳️

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

Are young voters leading the charge for Reform? Despite reports of a rightward shift among 18-24s globally, UK polling paints a different picture. In 2024, turnout dropped, and both left and right lost ground as more young people stayed home. We dive into the evidence 👇

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

Has Reform surged among young voters since the 2024 election? Recent YouGov polling shows a 14% lead over the Conservatives, but a closer look reveals their gains among young voters are in line with other age groups—and smaller than among the oldest.

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

We've teamed up with @ACCAction to bring new insights on how climate change is shaping voter priorities in the upcoming election. See our data & analysis that could influence key decisions at the ballot box below!

[American Conservation Coalition Action @ACCAction]

NEW POLLING ➡️

We collaborated with @StackStrat and found that climate continues to be a pressing issue – especially for young and Independent voters.

In fact, 44% of Independents say they're more likely to support a candidate with a climate plan.

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

Explore all these results, by state or by county, at your leisure in our interactive dashboard here! https://t.co/HYHjCzKwHl

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

As covered in the Daily Mail, Stack’s latest MRP model shows Biden would narrowly win against Trump if the presidential election were held today. This poll is among the most comprehensive of the race to date and follows our first MRP of the cycle, released in November last year https://t.co/bLZVOeWedm

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

RFK Jr. would get 6.5% of the vote and, although no states change hands when he is added, Biden’s lead in key battleground states increases, particularly in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

A few months out from the European elections, FdI still holds a strong lead in our Italian EP vote intention. Interesting find is that we currently estimate IV and +E to finish just above the electoral threshold of 4%

[Europe Elects @EuropeElects]

Italy, Stack Data Strategy poll:

European Parliament Election

FdI-ECR: 27% (+21)
PD-S&D: 20% (-3)
M5S-NI: 16% (-1)
LEGA-ID: 9% (-25)
FI-EPP: 7% (-1)
IV-RE: 5% (new)
+E-RE: 4% (+1)
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 4%
A-RE: 3% (new)
Italexit-*: 2% (new)
UP-LEFT: 1% (new)
NM-EPP: 1% (new)

+/- vs. 2019 election

Fieldwork: 17-22 February 2024
Sample size: 944

➤ https://t.co/gBf9bqCoHn

[Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat]

Our likely voters polling for the European Parliament elections in Germany showing further decline for the AfD, potentially hinting that the party will face greater challenges in mobilising their electorate for European elections than previously thought🤔

[Europe Elects @EuropeElects]

Germany, Stack Data Strategy poll:

European Parliament election

CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-3)
SPD-S&D: 17% (+1)
AfD-ID: 15% (+4)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 10% (-11)
BSW~LEFT: 9% (new)
FDP-RE: 6% (+1)
FW-RE: 4% (+2)
PARTEI-NI: 3% (+1)
Tier-LEFT: 3% (+2)
LINKE-LEFT: 3% (-3)
Volt-G/EFA: 1%

+/- vs. 2019 election

Fieldwork: 17-22 February 2024
Sample size: 980

➤ https://t.co/bueDvBc3AI

#Europawahl2024 #Europawahl

[Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne]

New @ukonward report: Reality Check - what voters really think about immigration by @jim_blagden

With migration becoming a top public priority again, we've worked with @StackStrat to examine the debate on control vs. reduction of numbers.

Highlights 🧵 https://t.co/AfNQVkPHB7