Stakeholder

量化策略，DeFi Research，Alpha探索，投研分析，撸毛，MM策略.

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@web3_xiaoyao 今年有空投的概率不超过 20%

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

笑死了

[Max For AI @MaxForAI]

https://t.co/81hzTi5U9T

[PredictTrader @polymarketbet]

Polymarket’s Token Dilemma: When Will Polymarket Finally Launch Its Token? My opinion on the potential $POLY launch and the TGE date:

Recently, the Polymarket team has moved past subtle hints, explicitly teasing an upcoming token launch. While 90% of the community dismisses this as a mere marketing ploy, the reality cuts much deeper. Polymarket is indeed set to launch a token; in fact, the infrastructure is complete, and the airdrop claim page is already finalized. However, the core challenges surrounding the $POLY token are far more profound than the market perceives.

How does Polymarket operate? It consists of two distinct legal entities: Blockratize Inc. and Adventure One QSS Inc. If we are talking about the US part of the platform, it is worth mentioning a third legal entity with an exchange license: QCX LLC.

The first is the New York-based Blockratize Inc. This is the entity that raises investment rounds and hires employees. However, you might have missed a crucial detail: it was also Blockratize Inc. that filed the trademark application for $POLY.

Logically, shouldn't the offshore entity, Adventure One, be the one launching $POLY? Adventure One operates the entire platform outside the US - Polymarket WW (Worldwide). Meanwhile, Blockratize manages both Polymarket US and Adventure One. Why then is a New York-based entity registering the trademark instead of the offshore one?

It was actually Blockratize Inc itself that noted in its SEC filings that investors were getting "other warrants." We’ve got confirmation from OTC desks that these were token warrants.

Polymarket is planning an airdrop for US users - and absolutely everyone is sleeping on this. You're all trying to guess the token launch date and spamming Mustafa’s DMs, but the reality is Polymarket can’t drop a token right now. Why? The Clarity Act.

The Clarity Act will legally clear the way for tokens and airdrops. Right now, regulators are completely split, with the SEC and CFTC constantly butting heads.

The Clarity Act is something without which $POLY will not exist. As soon as this law is finally passed and establishes:

1) A clear division of authority between the SEC and the CFTC.

2) Legal status for airdrops and utility tokens for US citizens.

3) The right for Americans to participate in token distributions of decentralized platforms without the risk of the project being classified as an issuer of unregistered securities.

Until the Clarity Act creates an ironclad legal shield, there will be no token.

The U.S. government and the bill's supporters in the Senate have designated July 4th (Independence Day) as a symbolic "target signing date." They aim to fully pass the Senate vote by this point.

Realistic Voting Window in the Senate - June/July 2026
The document must reach a full Senate floor vote before the end of the summer. If senators head into the August recess without voting, the bill is highly likely to get bogged down in debates until winter.

Technical Deadlines of Related Legislation - July 2026
In parallel, the implementation of the already passed GENIUS Act (which regulates banking stablecoins) is underway. Regulators (Treasury, FDIC, FinCEN) face a hard deadline of July 2026 to publish the final rules. The CLARITY Act needs to sync with these regulations, which is why the banking lobby is pressuring Congress right now.

The odds of the Clarity Act passing are currently between 55% and 70% (ironically) on Polymarket. In my opinion this is literally a market on whether $POLY will launch this year.

The token launch date? Within the next couple of months from the moment the Clarity Act becomes law.

This is just my opinion but I think Polymarket hasn't announced the TGE date for one reason only: the Polymarket team itself still doesn't know when it will be. Since the CLARITY Act hasn't been passed yet there is simply no foundation for launching the token right now.

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@0xKaKa03 @Polymarket 藏拙勿露

[ikarusz @ikarusz26]

Wanted to share my thoughts on the upcoming $POLY TGE, potential tokenomics, airdrop criteria, long-term upside, risks, etc.

Airdrop Criteria

It makes sense for Polymarket to reward organic users while also considering when the volume was generated and whether the account is actually active/a regular user.

Someone who slammed $1m into a sports market and never used the platform again isn't the same as someone who put $1m volume across multiple markets while being consistently active on the platform.

I think when the volume was generated matters a lot more than the size itself. Volume generated in earlier periods will probably be rewarded exponentially more. (It doesn't make sense for someone who did $1m volume in 2026 to get anywhere close to someone who did $1m in 2024.)

We've already seen this with Hyperliquid and Lighter recently. Early Hyperliquid users with very little volume got over $100k airdrops. (Those tokens are worth 5x that now.) And with Lighter, the points program was insanely easy to farm early on with just $10k size trades. Towards the end however, you'd need $1m size trades just to get the same amount of points.

I think Polymarket will follow a similar methodology.

That's also why I think farming for the sake of the airdrop is already over at this point. Once everyone starts talking about it, taking consistently -EV bets just for the airdrop probably becomes a bad idea.

I've also seen people forcing volume across multiple categories. I don't think this matters at all. Being a concentrated user on specific markets probably shouldn't disadvantage you at all.

Anyone who used Polymarket's API also knows most older markets didn't even have proper categories/tags attached to them.

I also looked at most of the unofficial checkers and honestly, I think people are giving way too much hopium to LP reward farmers. Just because something isn't utilized enough doesn't automatically mean it'll get rewarded more. It's a prediction market, not a DEX.

I can also see a scenario where Polymarket announces a finalized points program/snapshot first and delays the TGE to a later stage.

We've already seen Lighter do this:
users got their finalized points allocated first (and farming meaningful amounts after that became significantly harder), while the token came later. Not saying that's the right move, just saying it's definitely possible if they want to ramp up even more volume while assuring users the token is confirmed. (Especially since I still don't think the recent teases fully convinced people the TGE is actually near.)

I think volume matters for the airdrop, but probably not to the extent people think. Someone risking capital at 50c isn't the same as someone bonding with the same amount.

I can even see a scenario where shares traded below 3c and above 97c either get reduced weighting or don't count at all since those are almost always moonshots or bonding activity.

I also think a lot of the public leaderboard is inflated with bot activity, wash trading, and inactive accounts. So the actual ranking is probably much better than most people think.

I don't think PnL will matter much either. In fact, I can genuinely see a scenario where slightly negative PnL gets rewarded with a small multiplier. The logic being:
people who lost money are probably more likely to lose it again anyway, while profitable users already extracted value from the platform.

Token Use Cases

I think $POLY will have multiple use cases and probably more over time.

Fee reduction through staking (similar to Hyperliquid or BNB if staking isn't required). Given how sticky Polymarket's liquidity already is while most competitors outside of Kalshi still struggle with liquidity, this alone could make it so users don't even bother trading elsewhere.

Native settlement layer: UMA will eventually get replaced and the native token becomes the core of settlements.

Gas fees on the upcoming chain (Polygon is already making absurd amounts from Polymarket activity even with extremely low fees.)

I can also see referral rewards scaling based on staked token amount. (Something BNB did in the past.)

I don't think value accrual comes from buybacks though. That would feel weird if the company eventually shares profits and also pushes for an IPO.

Airdrop Allocation

Polymarket's CMO mentioned in an interview that they admire how well Hyperliquid handled its token and want something with actual utility and longevity.

I'm expecting something around a 15-20% airdrop allocation.

Hyperliquid distributed around 25%, so using that as a rough framework makes sense while also keeping in mind Polymarket probably has VCs involved. (Though I doubt they'd get too much since they'd probably prefer equity exposure instead.)

Socials/Yaps

I think it'll be such a tiny multiplier that unless you already have a large account, it's probably not even worth spending too much time on.

Upside Potential

Given people are now aware sustainable token models can actually work, I don't expect the same type of move HYPE had. A lot of that will already be priced in from the start.

But I can definitely see a scenario where the token launches at a high valuation and slowly grinds higher over time into the IPO narrative. Having a completely bleeding token chart would make an IPO significantly harder to sell.

That said, if/when IPO discussions become serious, I'd probably front-run that and become a seller. Having both a public stock and a token under changing regulation can create a lot of uncertainty later on.

Future Growth

Even though everyone keeps saying prediction markets becoming mainstream marks the top, I still think there's massive room for future growth.

The infra can already support significantly more markets with basically no marginal cost: commodities, options/perps style markets, sportsbook expansion in the US.

Most of Kalshi's volume already comes from sports betting. It's basically a monopoly at this point in the US, but probably not forever.

US expansion also unlocks massive marketing opportunities to the point where they could realistically run Super Bowl ads eventually.

And there are also multiple future events that can easily create huge spikes in volume: World Cup, midterms, 2028 elections, macro events.

Market Risks

Ironically, Polymarket and its token could perform relatively well even during weaker crypto markets.

Prediction markets aren't fully reliant on crypto speculation continuing upward. For reference, a decent % of Hyperliquid's volume already comes from non-crypto markets now.

Technical Challenges

I'm still not fully buying into the "Polychain is launching soon" narrative because of how much infra still needs to be built around it: explorers, RPCs, bridges, DEXes, wallets.

I wouldn't be surprised if they partner with an existing stack like Optimism or Arbitrum instead. Otherwise, I just don't see this happening anytime soon.

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@letsvpn Windows版本什么时候更新

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@Areskapitalon 今天这篇文章影响很大，但是真正的惊人发现并不多。反而更加确定海峡完犊子了，长期一种“约等于关闭”的状态要长期保持

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

获批通过也是要交钱的，毕竟外交声明和现场实际执法是两回事，而且还要交资料，过审查，而且你根本不敢和拿枪的人讨论什么，能走的人都是之前就经常打交道的老熟人

正常的船，正常的船员，不可能冒这个险去的，没保单，有生命危险的事是不敢去的。 导弹不长眼，并非是伊朗可能打你，美军也可能打你

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

补充一下，海峡现在过的船大量应该还是影子船队的多，之前通航正常的也是有20%左右AIS全关闭通行的，并非只有现在；

航运过去正常的时候AIS统计每天130艘，和100艘还是差距很大的；现在从每天2-5艘到每天15-20艘，没达到“快速回升”级别的改善，只是冲突的时候影子船队也不开了，现在开始恢复活动

[Citrini @citrini]

Strait of Hormuz: A CitriniResearch Field Trip

The Field Report from Analyst #3 is live.

https://t.co/rwJffd8l81

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

结果：石油长期高位下不来，资本市场无法幸免，大概率今年会出现大崩，btc去3w-4w
注意：这里还有今年IPO几个大抽水机，spacex，openai. ai圈玩的套娃金融游戏，像极了币圈牛顶defi盛宴，各种估值上天的天王项目

怎么办？ 学习，享受生命，撸PM，等待抄底

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

最近一些看法

逻辑链：川普疯了，美军地面部队即将登录，（油价下不来，谈判撤军都不能使得海峡通航，中期选举失败，最后孤注一掷，PM预测概率支持这一点），但是不会很激烈，既不是和平，也不是热战，长期保持一种温战状态

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@okairal1 @RJDAIGOGO 杠精

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@qinbafrank Frank牛逼，之前只觉得政治砖家没有用（主要是墙内屁股决定自带立场的无脑言论太多影响），最近被折腾的账户反复挨打才开始补课，研究了一阵才知道地缘政治确有逻辑和脉络
这就去拜读

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@ANDREW_FDWT @gork 总结下他分享的主要内容

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@maitian99 说ai文的不懂ai

[Aelia Capitolina @Areskapitalon]

https://t.co/qk11Va0M3j

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

今天美军打伊朗的预测市场，在公开信息出来前，28号yes从0.11涨到0.26，然后跳变

这15个点，基本是（更广泛意义的内幕，信息源头的下注抽水）

长期看，每个盘都有这个问题，15个点抽走，剩下的就是负和博弈，相当于每个市场存在一个隐形庄家，收了一次性交易税

这样长期玩，就只能是负ev
#预测市场 #polymarket

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@Nehemia_GA 好人一生平安

[Stakeholder @Stakeholderweb3]

@cryptoxiao NB