Star

20 | ✝️ | Central Alabama Weather | National Wx: @weathertrackus

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

@meteoroloquads @CPalermo_Storms @WxFront @weathertrackus you haven’t even had a season

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

We thought this was going to be the largest outbreak that second season

[Weather History @weather_history]

October 24, 2021:

An outbreak of 17 tornadoes impacted Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Four were significant (EF2+), three of which were spawned by a cluster of supercells south of St Louis. EF3s at Farmington & Fredericktown leveled structures and injured 2 people.

#wxhistory

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

I love my state

[DFWStormChasers @DFWStormChasing]

A really high dude at Whataburger just gave me $300 in cash???
"Go get you a nice shirt and a good haircut, and go get you some tail my boy"
ALRIGHTY THEN

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

Unless we have some very dry/clear days in early November, it will not be in the 80s in Birmingham.

Regardless, a mild/wet pattern is still in store after Halloween, and through early November. Can't entirely rule out the potential for a few strong storms in the broader region.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

Responses like this, however, just aren't really helping the situation. I get it, sometimes, the criticism can go too far, and become obsessive, but I struggle to understand how this is at all effective in trying to solve the problem(s).

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

It's clear that there were some questionable warning decisions made, especially the late warning from Flagstaff for the Overgaard tornado.

While I personally agree with a lot of the fair criticism that has been made out of it, it shouldn’t be made an obsession...

[Matthew Cappucci @MatthewCappucci]

The past 24 hours over the Desert Southwest have been concerning from an NWS warning issuance standpoint.

We’ve had:
• warnings issued based on contaminated data
• a TOR for a left split (spinning the “wrong” way)
• several delayed/missed events (both tornadoes and giant hail)
• polygons that miss the actual circulation
• ongoing debris signatures that are missed

I’m pro-expertise and pro-NWS — when they win, we all win. But critiquing poor performance scientifically is, at times, important.

It’s tough to justify keeping 122 offices staffed for warning operations when consistency and quality are obvious problems. The case for centralized warning operations is getting stronger, which is both good and bad.

I’m working on a longer piece and am not going to prematurely release it before I make sure every detail is presented fairly and completely — but there is a deeper conversation that needs to be had.

If anyone has any specific examples (both from this event or otherwise) that you feel I should look into, DM me.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

While these are somewhat extremes; I think we should be able to agree that we don't want another Whitman situation, but we also don't want a very high FAR either.

If it's not already being done, regular radar/warning training at every WFO could help prevent both.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

@MatthewCappucci @wx_Jpeg However, there can also be a point made that given they're less experienced with tornadoes, doesn't mean they should be any less trained or prepared for situations like they've had the past couple of days.

I can see both sides, but I do not stand for the anger😂

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

@MatthewCappucci @wx_Jpeg Not the best look from her, if I'm being honest...

At the same time though, while I agree with most of your points, I also fear it might be becoming a little obsessive. Yes, Flagstaff was late on the Overgaard warning, amongst other questionable decisions...

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

what?

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

Temperatures will likely be above-average through early November, and some 80s are possible along the Gulf Coast, but very unlikely inland.

Our daytime highs across Bham may not have much change (low-mid 70s) for at least the next 2-3 weeks, should expectations continue to hold.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

Our cool/mild pattern continues this week, and for the rest of the month. Rain will return in early November, with some warmer overnight temps.

I have very strong doubts about us being in the 80s in Bham at any point in early November, especially through persistent clouds/rain.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

Today's setup made me think a little bit of Oct 6 2010. Some meteorological differences, but not crazily dissimilar.

Today was a lot less significant in comparison, but still a very unusually active day for the region, and we still have tomorrow...

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

@DonovanFry_Wx Absolutely. Idk if this was human or technical error, I would hope that radar/warning training is taken at least annually across all WFOs. Not sure exactly what West U.S. does with training, considering they don't deal with these situations often, it seems like it would be useful

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

Likely sig tornado hit the town of Overgaard, AZ earlier, and was warned as the tornado hit town.

Not entirely sure what's resulted in several late SVR/TOR warnings today, but this case didn't look great, only giving those in the area maybe only a couple minutes of lead time.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

@SCweather_wx I cackle at a good chunk of the ensemble guidance trying to throw in mid-80s for parts of the Southeast... while it's cloudy and rainy, like yeah, that's realistic.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

Temperatures in the mid-70s across the Birmingham area today, with nights in the 40s/50s.

This pattern will continue into next week, with no rain until early November.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

First ever Day 2 Enhanced Risk in the Western U.S., for Arizona tomorrow.

Quite the headline from the SPC...

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

@ParkerSezaWX Soon👀

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

I will begin doing more outlooks, and discussing weather info for the Birmingham area (mainly Jefferson & Shelby counties) on this account.

If demand increases, a dedicated account may be needed in the future.

[Star @StarInBoxWx]

For the Birmingham area:

High temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, Low temperatures in the upper 40s all week.

We'll be bone dry, likely through the remainder of October, with the next chance of rain sometime in early November.