StatSharp

Sports betting models, simulations, trends & player-prop data for bettors who handicap their own games.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

The latest StatSharp has just been published!
🏈 Model Edges + Who’s Beating the NFL Prop Market?
Featuring:
* 📊NFL Player Prop Market Report - Who's Beating Expectations and Who's Falling Short?
* 🏈⭑Simulation & Ratings Spotlight - Key Weekend Matchups
* 📒Profitable Betting Angles - Momentum Without the Market Tax
* McVay Keeps Bad Teams Under Control
Check it out and subscribe here. 👉https://t.co/hp6GFmlnOA

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Detroit is laying 3 at home, but our simulation actually has Green Bay winning 26-24.

The part that stands out isn’t just the score — it’s the efficiency gap. Green Bay projects at 6.2 yards per play to Detroit’s 5.4, with the Packers holding the Lions to 6.5 yards per pass attempt despite 40 projected throws.

If Xavier McKinney and that secondary can keep Amon-Ra St. Brown from generating explosives, the defensive edge could be enough to swing the NFC North matchup.

https://t.co/ks6jU1mzAt

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Ravens Respond After Close Losses

“Bet on Baltimore after a loss by six points or fewer. Since the 2024 season, the Ravens are 7-0 ATS in this spot, with an average line of -6.2 and a +90.9% ROI.”

Few losses are tougher to absorb than the kind Baltimore suffered against Cleveland last week—a close defeat that leaves plenty of plays to replay afterward. But recent history suggests the Ravens have been especially good at turning that frustration into an immediate response rather than allowing one painful loss to become two.

Since 2024, Baltimore is a perfect 7-0 ATS following losses by six points or fewer, and these haven't simply been narrow covers. The Ravens have outscored their next opponent by an average of 34.3-16.1, despite laying an average of 6.2 points. That points to a team that has consistently corrected mistakes and responded with urgency after games that slipped away. Cincinnati comes to Baltimore this week, giving the Ravens another opportunity to turn an excruciating defeat into one of their most reliable bounce-back situations.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Andrews’ Production Keeps Sliding

“Mark Andrews is 10-2 to the Under on both receptions and receiving yards against AFC opponents since the 2025 season, hitting the Under 83.3% of the time in each market.”

The betting market may still be pricing Mark Andrews closer to the player he once was than the player he has become. Age appears to have taken something off what was once one of the NFL’s most dependable tight-end production profiles, and familiar AFC defenses have been particularly effective at keeping him from becoming a major part of Baltimore’s passing game.
Andrews has averaged only 2.3 receptions in these conference games against an average prop of 3.3, producing a 10-2 Under record and +8.6 units. The yardage discrepancy is even more pronounced: just 19.3 receiving yards per game versus an average posted line of 34.8—a massive 15.5-yard gap that has also produced a 10-2 Under record and +7.8 units.
Cincinnati knows Andrews and Baltimore’s offense well, making Sunday another interesting test of whether the market has fully repriced his current role. In prediction-market terms, the recent evidence suggests the probability of Andrews staying below traditional receiving thresholds may still be higher than the posted prop prices imply. Both receptions and receiving yards point toward the same underlying story: declining volume, familiar defenses and a market that may still be catching up.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

NFL Betting System:
Good Teams, Manageable Prices

“Bet on teams covering four or five of their last six when a good team (60%-75% win rate) faces a bad team (25%-40%). Since 2022, this system is 30-6 ATS (83.3%), producing +23.4 units with a 59.1% ROI.”

Sometimes the best betting systems are the ones that make intuitive sense. This setup finds a good team that has also been performing well against the spread, then matches it against a clearly weaker opponent. The key is that neither side sits at an extreme: you aren’t paying the premium attached to an elite powerhouse, and you aren’t fading a hopeless bottom-feeder whose shortcomings are already obvious to everyone.

That has historically created a much more reasonable price. Qualifying teams have been favored by an average of only 5.7 points, yet have outscored opponents by an average of 32.3-18.1. More than half of the winners covered by at least seven points, suggesting the edge has often been larger than the market price implied. Pittsburgh fits the positive side Sunday against New Orleans—a solid team in good recent form facing a weaker opponent without the inflated number bettors often have to pay for a more obvious mismatch.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

I keep coming back to Ole Miss-Texas.

The market has Texas -3.5 at home. StatSharp’s simulation has Ole Miss winning 29-24.

That’s an 8.5-point swing from the spread, with the Rebels also projecting for 29 points against a 24.5 team total.

If Texas’ slide is going to continue, this looks like the kind of spot where it could get expensive.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

🐘Tuscaloosa Has Been the Reset Button

“Bet on Alabama at home after one or more consecutive ATS losses. Since the 2024 season, the Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) in this spot, producing +5.9 units with a 67.0% ROI.”

Home cooking has repeatedly revived Alabama after the Tide underperformed market expectations. An ATS loss can quickly cool sentiment and force bettors to reassess a team’s true strength, but Alabama has consistently responded by delivering a much stronger performance once it gets back to Tuscaloosa.
The response has been emphatic rather than marginal. Alabama has outscored opponents by an average of 40.5-10.8 in these qualifying games while laying an enormous average of 20.4 points—and still covering seven of eight. In prediction-market terms, the prior ATS miss has often created a temporary re-pricing of expectations that Alabama quickly corrects at home. Texas A&M gets that assignment Saturday, with the Tide again coming home after failing to cover its previous number.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

College Football’s Most Mispriced Teams in '26
The betting market gets smarter every week—but it still gets some teams very wrong.

Using StatSharp’s ATS +/-, we measured how far each Power 5 team has finished above or below the closing point spread on average this season. The results reveal which teams have consistently been underpriced by the market and which programs bettors have been paying too much for.

UCLA and Wake Forest have been beating market expectations by double digits per game, while teams like Stanford and Washington have repeatedly fallen well short of the number. These aren’t just ATS wins and losses—they show the actual size of the market’s pricing errors.

The bigger question now is whether sportsbooks and prediction markets have finally adjusted their numbers—or whether some of these inefficiencies are still hiding in plain sight.

Read more 👉 https://t.co/2hY63oyDd9

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Minnesota’s biggest problem in this matchup may be painfully simple: the Gophers might not be able to run the ball at all.

StatSharp projects Minnesota for just 43 rushing yards on 24 carries — 1.8 yards per attempt. Iowa, meanwhile, is projected for 146 on the ground and a 26-16 win.

If Minnesota gets forced into obvious passing situations all afternoon, Iowa -7 starts to make a lot more sense.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Market Still Can't Catch BYU

“Bet on BYU in all games. Since the 2024 season, the Cougars are 24-9 ATS (72.7%), producing +14.1 units with a 38.8% ROI.”

Simply put, BYU has been one of the most reliable money makers in college football over the past three seasons. The Cougars have consistently outperformed market expectations regardless of venue or opponent, covering nearly three out of every four games since 2024.

The underlying results help explain why the trend has been so durable. BYU has outscored opponents by an average of 31.7-18.6 while laying an average of six points, meaning the Cougars haven’t merely been sneaking inside numbers—they’ve generally been beating teams by substantially more than the market expected. BYU heads to UCF this week with a 24-9 ATS record over this stretch, making the Cougars one of the strongest sustained betting profiles anywhere in college football.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

The latest StatSharp E-mail newsletter has just been published.
🏈 Market Misses, Model Edges & Prop Angles
Featuring:
* College Football’s Most Mispriced Teams in '26
* Simulation & Ratings Spotlight
* Profitable Betting Angles
* Betting System: Good Teams, Manageable Prices
Check it out and subscribe here 🔽🔽
https://t.co/ks6jU1mzAt

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Is Oklahoma City still undervalued at -8.5 against Denver?

StatSharp's simulation projects a 125-115 Thunder win, while its power ratings are even more bullish, estimating a 14-point margin.

Both models favor OKC against the current spread, despite the line moving a point toward the Thunder.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Denver was an Over bettor's dream last season.

Nuggets games went 52-30 to the Over in the regular season, producing +18.7 units. On the road, that record was an even stronger 29-15 (+12.3 units).

Tonight's Denver-OKC total has already climbed from 232.5 to 236.5.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Before writing off Chicago as a 3-point favorite tonight, consider its recent home results.

The Bears are 14-6 ATS at Soldier Field since 2024, including 8-4 ATS as home favorites.

New England's road-underdog record is also strong at 9-5 ATS.

Something has to give tonight.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Chicago's home totals have been worth watching.

Since 2024, Bears home games have gone Under 14 of 21 times.

Even more interesting: Chicago is 5-0 to the Under at home since last season after scoring 30+ points in its previous game.

Tonight's total is 50.5.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

The betting market has Chicago favored by 3 tonight, but StatSharp's simulation sees things very differently.

Projected score: Patriots 28, Bears 20.

New England covered +3 in 795 of 1,000 simulations and won outright in 729.

That's a pretty substantial disagreement with the market.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Mike Vrabel's Patriots have been remarkably good to bettors in October.

New England is a perfect 6-0 ATS in October games since last season, outscoring opponents by an average of 30.1 to 18.1.

They're getting 3 points tonight in Chicago.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

The betting market opened Phoenix-Portland at 235.5 tonight, but StatSharp's simulation isn't buying that much offense.

Projected score: Portland 110, Phoenix 108.

That's 13.5 points below the opening total, with the market already dropping to 231.5.

An interesting Under angle to watch in the NBA opener.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Charlotte will be missing some serious firepower tonight in Brooklyn.

Kon Knueppel (18.3 PPG, 41.9% from three) and Coby White (17.1 PPG) are both out.

That's 35.4 points per game missing from the Hornets' backcourt.

Charlotte's spread has already moved from -4.5 to -1.5.

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Tonight's Bucks-Wizards opener features two teams that were brutal to back last season.

Milwaukee went 36-45 ATS (-14.1 units), while Washington was even worse at 33-48 ATS (-20.2 units).

Combined, that's 69-93 ATS and a loss of 34.3 units.

One bright spot? Washington games went 47-34 to the Over (+9.9 units).

[StatSharp @StatSharp]

Here's an interesting Freddy Peralta trend heading into tonight.

When Peralta has allowed no more than 1 earned run in each of his previous two starts, his team is 7-0 this season, producing +7.7 units and a 100.7% ROI.

They've outscored opponents 6.1 to 1.6 in those games.