Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities)

The contrarian’s contrarian. Do your own research, NFA. Welcome to the trade of a lifetime.

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

This is what a major long term topping formation looks like. Face-ripping final thrusts with no pullbacks at all, where the stuff down the most squeezes the hardest and the indices go green every day for weeks. Tech names up 20, 30, 40% in 12 trading days.

These are the last gasps of a 15 year long bull market. Remember these moments because the next decade is going to be chop and pain.

Within a week or two I’ll be short more.

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

It’s going to 230.

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

Short $AVGO 427. Hopefully round 2 of last time.

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

@DThomasStealth It all traces back to the free cash flow of the most profitable companies in history (mag7). FCF that they spent decades building in their own unique businesses before all deciding to throw all of it into AI capex.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Shorting is a world filled with slippery slopes and sand castles. The sand castles are real, and vulnerable, but the slippery slopes drive men insane and ultimately prevent most from being properly positioned when the castle is washed away.

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

Must watch interview

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

Went on Bloomberg - Anthropic and OpenAI are dangerous and unsustainable companies that shouldn’t IPO. The AI bubble is a con and retail investors are the marks.
AI doesn’t have ROI, it’s nothing like AWS/Uber, and it’s got no post-bubble recovery story.
https://t.co/ROww0H5ugs

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

@WatcherGuru Go after serenity next

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

You've got Kyle Kuzma giving you stock advice, you've got the government putting Short Sellers in prison because they covered above their price targets, now you have one of the highest quality companies in the world diluting you, what more do you want?

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

$goog is trying to frontrun the 11 figure iceberg on the offer from anthropic, OpenAI, and spacex

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Alphabet reports proposed an $80b equity capital raise. $GOOGL

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

@d_gilz My thoughts as well

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

We are in the grand finale of the 15 year passive bubble.

Every bearish macro event for the past decade has been shrugged off by equity markets because the passive bid was always there.

Things are changing. The young generation, being less trusting of the system than ever before and less optimistic about their own financial future, is continually shifting towards independent work and independent investment decisions.

Hyperspeculation has taken hold of the youth and will not let go anytime soon. Over time that weakens the passive bid that has held this market up for so long.

These factors, combined with an aging boomer population holding the majority of wealth in equities, will finally lead to the passive bid being overwhelmed.

This bubble will top on the same liquidity dynamics that started it. Right before the bubble tops, the same mechanics that started it go into overdrive and lead to excess and capitulation. Things like the levered etf’s and the greatest passive bagholding event of all time in spacex are getting us very, very close.

However, in the short term it has become far too consensus to expect the market to top on the day of the IPO. The pattern won’t play out that simply.

I have never had more conviction in an idea than this:

- Do not be long passive for the next decade. It will be chop, pain, and underperformance.
- Gone are the days of your guaranteed 10-12% per year for doing nothing. These final thrusts with no pullbacks are the las gasps of the infinite bid.
- Hyperspeculation will continue to drive insane moves in small pockets of single name stocks, crypto, alt assets, etc.
- Skilled operators will make fortunes actively trading, unskilled operators will be wiped out, and passive will end up with a decade of time wasted with nothing to show for it.
- AI slop and midcurve quants using chatgpt to code trading algos will create lucrative and exploitable new inefficiencies in markets.

[The Maverick of Wall Street @TheMaverickWS]

A lot of people who think Micron's valuation is "cheap" will find out the hard way the meaning of cyclical peak P/E compression
$MU

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

I’m not one to agree with most people pushing the whole wealth gap narrative for the last 10 years,

but this is true and it is a much bigger deal than the crazies yelling about CEO’s vs janitors

This two young middle/upper middle class people with similar jobs and incomes, but one is competing with the other’s parents while trying to buy a house or get an apartment.

This will get worse and will have significant societal implications.

[agent bubblegum @kaitduffy]

You don’t realize you’re actually in competition with people’s parents which makes things so scary right now if you have to move on your own

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

We are in the grand finale of the 15 year passive bubble.

Every bearish macro event for the past decade has been shrugged off by equity markets because the passive bid was always there.

Things are changing. The young generation, being less trusting of the system than ever before and less optimistic about their own financial future, is continually shifting towards independent work and independent investment decisions.

Hyperspeculation has taken hold of the youth and will not let go anytime soon. Over time that weakens the passive bid that has held this market up for so long.

These factors, combined with an aging boomer population holding the majority of wealth in equities, will finally lead to the passive bid being overwhelmed.

This bubble will top on the same liquidity dynamics that started it. Right before the bubble tops, the same mechanics that started it go into overdrive and lead to excess and capitulation. Things like the levered etf’s and the greatest passive bagholding event of all time in spacex are getting us very, very close.

However, in the short term it has become far too consensus to expect the market to top on the day of the IPO. The pattern won’t play out that simply.

I have never had more conviction in an idea than this:

- Do not be long passive for the next decade. It will be chop, pain, and underperformance.
- Gone are the days of your guaranteed 10-12% per year for doing nothing. These final thrusts with no pullbacks are the las gasps of the infinite bid.
- Hyperspeculation will continue to drive insane moves in small pockets of single name stocks, crypto, alt assets, etc.
- Skilled operators will make fortunes actively trading, unskilled operators will be wiped out, and passive will end up with a decade of time wasted with nothing to show for it.
- AI slop and midcurve quants using chatgpt to code trading algos will create lucrative and exploitable new inefficiencies in markets.

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

The index rebalancings at the bell yesterday were criminal. The exchanges and the largest companies and fund managers have to get together and figure out how to do these things correctly. A 3:50 pm. re-balance with no buybacks allowed can crunch billions for NO REASON.

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

@Barchart @briantribbitt Long brk short nq would be a fantastic pairs trade for the next few years if brk hadn’t just fomo’d into google at the top

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Manias in earnings expectations are one of the most insidious kinds of bubbles because it looks like elevated prices are supported by fundamentals, not speculation.

[Stat Arb @quant_arb]

Forgot goal #2

[Tony Day @tony_day25]

@institLPGP The is a textbook example of narcissistic psychopathy complete with all the sycophants that support this behaviour. Zero remorse. The guy was hosting "happy hours" mid fund blowing up. Mind blowing

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

@RebeccaSrmn @ReganCoda It’s poetic that he spent so much of his time railing on retail on here for sizing too while selling vol and then he blows up by adding to a loser while selling vol lmao

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

The biggest takeaway from this should be

No matter how smart they sound, no matter how many degrees they have, no matter how much money they raise, no matter how sophisticated their models are, no matter how much “free alpha” they give away on Twitter…

Many of them are still piling all of their risk into the tails and will blow up anyway.

[jack @jackgleason]

@johnnysack95

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

@ReganCoda He was such a smug asshole for years on here. Nobody else knew how to trade vol, he was the only one smart enough to do it.

And then he blew up averaging into a losing position.

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

@DeItaone The war is not not not not almost not over

[Static (This is the Generational Top in Equities) @Staticether]

Game theory final boss. A century of financial engineering has led to this moment.

[Liz Hoffman @lizrhoffman]

Never seen an IPO lock-up like this one, confirming our scoop https://t.co/Pg6eIOtrzL