Steel Mochi

[Steel Mochi @SteelMochi]

@AdrianBarbon @andrea_economia Déjate la cartera y las joyas en casa @andrea_economia.

[Steel Mochi @SteelMochi]

@adezresearch GOAT

[Arthur @adezresearch]

How did I manage to maintain an 85% win rate during this drop, anticipate the bear market three months ago and exit my spot positions, taking only one loss in the process and six wins, all live?

Here are the strategies I use to avoid missing the next bottom and to stop longing every higher low on $BTC

[Arthur @adezresearch]

November 18, 2025 – High-Probability Technical Bounce on $BTC

Macro remains bearish, but I’m taking longs

After 6/6 perfect shorts ✅ from 103.5k down to 92.8k, we're entering a zone where a technical bounce has high probability of materializing, but the institutional macro context remains unequivocally bearish.

Why the Technical Bounce is Highly Probable?
Current Data as of Nov 18, 2025

Price: $92,798 (+1.45% session)
Perpetual CVD: -113.362k (stabilizing vs. -114k)
Spot CVD: -78.155k (no further deepening)
Funding rate: 0.0069% (neutral, liquidation pressure exhausted)
Structural level: 93k = monthly support defended

H1/H4 Signals Converging

Seller exhaustion confirmed
CVD stopped deepening → institutional absorption at 92-93k
Volume increasing without price collapse = passive buying active

Deleveraging partially completed
OI dropped from 125k to 102k (-18%)
Neutral funding = trapped longs already liquidated
Not too much fuel for additional cascade

Structural confluence intact
93k = validated monthly support (not broken on close on the monthly)

Historical value zone with previous reaction

Classic technical pattern
Extended drop without significant retracement
Oversold on lower timeframes

Probable technical target: 95-98k (previous distribution zone + volume POC)

Why Macro Remains Bearish?

ETF Flows: Brutal Institutional Distribution
Farside Investors Data
Distribution continues
Last 7 days: -$2,479M net
Last 2 days: -$1,358M (acceleration)

Institutions aggressively distributing:
BlackRock (largest ETF) leading outflows

Clear pattern: buy low, sell bounces
Nov 11 (+524M) was a bull trap → followed by -1,144M in 48h

Stablecoins: Absence of New Capital
No stablecoin expansion = no fuel for rally:
USDT flat (0.0% daily) = no new capital entering

USDC contracting (-2% weekly) = liquidity exiting
USDE collapsing -35.5% = massive carry trade deleveraging

No new spot demand to sustain rally beyond technical bounce.

Critical Difference: Bounce vs. Reversal
Technical bounce (high probability):

Sustained bullish reversal (low probability):
Would require:ETF inflows >$500M daily sustained
USDT/USDC expanding ideally >1% daily
Funding rates >0.015% with OI growing
Recapture of 100k+ with institutional volume

My Personal Position & Execution Plan

What I'm doing here:
I'm personally entering longs at current levels (92-93k) with wide stop losses and medium-sized positions on this last swing low, why?

High-probability technical setup with clear invalidation
Risk/reward favorable from monthly support
H1/H4 signals aligning for bounce

The Full Scenario Map
Base case
93k → Technical bounce to 95-98k → Evaluate
At 95-98k resistance:

If we get volume rejection with bearish H4 confirmation → I close longs, look for short re-entry
Macro still bearish (ETF outflows + flat stablecoins) = distribution zone

Extended case
If we break 95-98k with volume → Extension to 105-110k possible
This is where it gets interesting:

Breaking 98k with institutional volume would change short-term structure
105-110k zone = previous broken support turned resistance
This is where I'd look for short re-entries with lower timeframe confirmations

Setup: HTF resistance + bearish LTF shift + continuation of negative ETF flows

Bull invalidation case
Sustained break above 110k with:

ETF inflows flipping massively positive
Stablecoin expansion accelerating
Funding rates >0.015% sustained
Would require macro thesis reassessment

Risk Management & Caution
Important Notes:
This is a counter-trend position in a bearish macro environment. I'm taking it because:

Technical setup is high-probability from monthly support
Risk is clearly defined
Position sized appropriately for counter-trend trade

But be cautious:
This could easily be a dead-cat bounce that gets rejected at 95-98k

[Arthur @adezresearch]

This is exactly how I execute all of my trades.

Pin it, print it, save it.

[Steel Mochi @SteelMochi]

@nsinghal211 ebook

[Steel Mochi @SteelMochi]

@nsinghal211 ebook

[Arthur @adezresearch]

Here are some years of trading summarized in a message:

I'd say the way I trade on HTF is conceptually simpler than lower timeframet

But the discipline to execute it properly is the hard part.

The hardest challenge is filtering all the BS out there, and not to toot my own horn, but being a philosophy student in real life and about to finish (my first career was finance) was truly a game changer for me.

Just look at local legends like Peter Thiel who also studied philosophy, i´d say a very short introduction to epistemology or books like Complexity from Oxford University Press could really help people discern how we know what we know, how to build systems, decompose the fundamental parts, and rebuild them from there

And well, apply all that to a complex system like markets where you don't actually have probabilities but historical recurrences

Social media is flooded with pseudophilosophy, people quote Nietzsche or any famous Stoics without understanding the frameworks or helping people create a plan based on their actual situation, as if the world were the same for everyone and one quote could help with anything beside a dopamine inyection

That's why I always ask people that send me DMs for tips to give me their trading profile, it's not the same trading with a 4-figure account or a 6-figure account, nor if you can only swing trade or trade intraday, or timezone etc, you gotta know the player to give him rules

People underestimate proper education way too much here and markets humble the undisciplined and uneducated, philosophy teaches rigor with evidence, something most traders desperately need

Take a look at what happens when you can discern what is true from what is false

People paying for groups that rely on marketing rather than results, I personally know maybe 2-3 trading groups where I could trust their people can actually trade

But still, teaching is a whole different thing as it requires translating knowledge, and if you trade based on "intuition," good luck sharing your feelings that cannot be quantified lol

People are constantly searching for miracle indicators or jumping from one analyst to another when someone takes a hit, as if we all didn't miss sometimes, the only ones who don't miss are the ones that don't shoot, and well, those who don't share anything live or trade live, I mean

So my take here is quite simple, don't, believe anyone, not even me, see the evidence, quantify it, backtest it, If it works, great

[Steel Mochi @SteelMochi]

@priceinaction Daytrading

[Steel Mochi @SteelMochi]

@MapleStax Trade

[Steel Mochi @SteelMochi]

@antihacienda vamos a tirale la cuenta al paleto

[Harry Eccles @Heccles94]

The British establishment have all ready covered this new Banksy up.

Can we get it Retweeted 10,000 times to show that they can never cover up their complicity in war crimes??

Protect the right to protest! RT!

[HazteOir.org @hazteoir]

Ante el paripé de Sánchez con Pepa Bueno:

¡Hagamos #CORRUPTO Trending Topic!

#PedroSánchezRTVE

[Steel Mochi @SteelMochi]

@edatvoficial @vitoquiles Mas oportunista que feminista

[EL ESPAÑOL @elespanolcom]

🎓 Marilou, víctima de bullying, se venga de sus agresores en su graduación y señala a la universidad: "El acoso se premia con título"

👉 La joven convierte el evento en una protesta contra sus compañeros y la respuesta de la universidad a las palizas, insultos y humillaciones

[Bitcoin @Bitcoin]

After the strong Q3 performance #Bitcoin is now up +49.1% year-to-date. The best performing asset class of 2021. 👍