Stephen Engelken

Retired US diplomat

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@asmamk Thanks, Asma. I agree Islamophobia is corrosive. It sits within a sad tradition of creating culturally different boogeymen for political advantage. Scapegoating a group (Jews, Communists, Blacks, Irish) always leads to violations of civil liberties.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@aarondmiller2 Agree. Echoes of 2003 are loud. There are big costs and risks here that are not being discussed. The public is not being prepared for losses/sacrifices. This is not something to enter into lightly.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@cyalm Means he’s dithering. Obviously, his spox would not want to put it that way.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@ArifCRafiq Doubt very much that professional diplomats are urging US participation in this conflict. Arguments against have been well put by others. Can’t speak for DoD though.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@khansahar1 Thanks for posting.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@cyalm True, but this is still amusing to us here. Predicted from the start that these big egos would inevitably clash.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@CTCWP @AmiraJadoon Good. We need better analyses of who is joining TTP and what motivates them. Over the past 20 years I have never seen good answers to these questions. We have been operating with only a very hazy idea of who the enemy really is. No wonder there has been little progress.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@aarondmiller2 Yes.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@khansahar1 @inkstickmedia This topic needs much more space than can be addressed within the limits of a”tweet.” States dealing with terrorism need to think carefully about how to change the calculus of terrorist sponsors. Reprisals can rally support for terrorists rather than discourage them.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@khansahar1 @inkstickmedia Been thinking about both the 2019 crisis and the current one. Both involve attempted reprisals for terrorist attacks. Do reprisals actually discourage further attacks? Or are they just military theater to appease opinion at home? All need to think more deeply about this.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@shujanawaz As it is now, publics in both countries think their side “won.” That doesn’t encourage a change in behavior or a desire to seek peace; rather, it augurs more risky behavior.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@khansahar1 Rather than being alarmed at the prospect of war, both sides seem to think they have “won.” Fear this may mean they are both willing to cross swords again. Don’t see any momentum for peace.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@MichaelKugelman Should be in overdrive, but is the danger appreciated?

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@AmiraJadoon Thanks for posting. Whether the US likes it or not a crisis may be in the making. I doubt the current GoP has done enough to shore up its relationship in DC. Other than China, it may have no other foreign protector.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@khansahar1 @pstanpolitics Thanks for posting.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@MichaelKugelman Cooperation probably never stopped. Goes a long way to explain why the US has been reluctant to criticize the Army’s anti-democratic acts

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@KhurramHusain @LodhiMaleeha This would also be my advice writing from Washington.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@MadihaAfzal Pakistan should be glad he’s not paying it much attention.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@aarondmiller2 That could well be the end of the Hashemites.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@MichaelKugelman So far the U.S. policy of not making a large public issue of China’s presence in Pakistan looks justified. The Chinese presence may be self-limiting.

[Stephen Engelken @StephenEngelken]

@MichaelKugelman Chinese pressure on 🇵🇰 to permit Chinese security forces to operate Pakistan’s territory seems to be growing. Agreeing to it would further undermine the already weak legitimacy of the hybrid regime.