Stephen Geldart

Commodity analysis at of Analysis at

[SBT News @sbtnews]

➡️ Anvisa aprova primeira caneta nacional de semaglutida #sbtnews

Ozivy, caneta da EMS com princípio ativo do Ozempic e do Wegovy, foi liberado após queda da patente da Novo Nordisk no Brasil
https://t.co/mn9Ln3IbIR

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

@sugartraders @Czapp_portal @raboresearch So it seems the consensus in the sugar market is that the price will continue to do what it has already done for 7 months..?

https://t.co/s5d0HiR078

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

Raw sugar futures have now traded sideways between 13.50c and 16c for 7 months...

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

Our latest view of the world’s sugar SND.

Still a surplus in 2026/27.

But it’s vulnerable to increased weather risk (El Nino) and mills’ sugar/ethanol decisions in Centre-South Brazil.

Prices aren’t moving, consumption growth is awful, but risks are present.

[Corey Lavinsky @biofuelslaw]

Today, EPA extended the waiver allowing #E15 to be sold this summer. E15 has been selling at a discount to E10 all year. #ethanol

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

@BClyde62937 The market does what the market does. It doesn't owe anybody excitement, nor a story.

Managing your risk within a sideways range can still be challenging, as you point out. That's one of the way my team helps our customers....

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

Raw sugar futures have now traded sideways between 13.50c and 16c for 7 months...

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

Lots of talk in the New Year about which way the sugar market goes next.

I guess it's worth pointing out the answer might well be nowhere.

Don't forget the market traded sideways for 15 months between 17.50c and 21.50c in the middle of the early 2020s bull market.

[ResearchPulse @ResearchPulse1]

In a huge surprise Semaglutide patent protection in Mexico might get prolonged to 2029/2033.

The patent expired by end of March like in several other countries.

But all the sudden a judge prolonged the patent protection to cover 10 years from launch in Mexico.

It’s not final settled yet. But if $NVO ends up with further patent protection, that will have significant positive effect for NVO in Mexico

$LLY $VKTX

[The Portugal News @theportugalnews]

Portuguese are spending around €613,000 a day on the new generation of weight-loss drugs, as demand for medications like Wegovy and Mounjaro continues to rise. The Portugal News #Portugal #weightlossdrugs #obesity #health

https://t.co/LVVA3ScqEy

[FreightWaves @FreightWaves]

Is the "Ozempic Effect" hitting the freight market? 🚛💊

We estimate that 1 million truckloads have already been lost due to the rise of GLP-1 drugs. While that's only about 1% of the 100 million annual food and beverage shipments, it signals a massive shift in how America eats—and what we move.

Full episode: https://t.co/dPTrOY9ln0

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

@sugarcapuchin Thank you

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

Novo Nordisk GLP-1 revenues have plateaued.

But that's because prices are under pressure. Sales volume keeps growing.

Which means more and more people are getting access to the drugs.

[CNN @CNN]

El Niño is emerging even faster than expected in the Pacific Ocean and odds are increasing that it could become historically strong — a rare "Super" El Niño — by fall or winter. https://t.co/rMg9twp0sK

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

@tleilax___ Yes, I’ve got my own scars..!

[Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ @FreightAlley]

GLP-1s and impact in food consumption by category

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

Shrinkflation is real....

[BBC News (World) @BBCWorld]

Shrinking Milka chocolate bar tricked consumers, says German court https://t.co/0XeBrl1Qlb

[Renewable Fuels Association @EthanolRFA]

Today’s passage of year-round E15 legislation is a victory for drivers seeking lower gas prices, farmers seeking stronger markets, and American families who want cleaner air and greater energy independence.
https://t.co/Jnis6QMLxN

[Stephen Geldart @StephenGeldart]

@Ashwinreads It is only Google Trends, but interesting anyway.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

0.1 brl per liter and won't be passed through fully to the consumer.

Gas stations margins will boom instead, as always.

Typically election year policy, quite unsustainable. Meanwhile this is not good for ethanol.