Steppenwolf_h11

No more BS. This time is serious. Commodities, financial markets and monetary economics.

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@TonyLaneNV There were plenty of loose rocks laying around. Would picking some of those and throwing them at the bear have helped? It’s an honest question.

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

Ese es precisamente tu problema, pensar que los empresarios, cuevas y bancos tienen que o pueden defender la moneda nacional. A grandes rasgos, eso solo lo puede hacer el banco central (y los políticos que designan su directorio). Y agravas el error al sugerir que dejarse robar por los políticos (que se esconden tras la bandera) con una moneda basura es patriotismo. No fiera, eso se llama estupidez.

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@KlondikeBob199 @Beno10_MFC Ok, smart ass: ARE people even trying? Is that better?

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@visionergeo Hey @Grok, can you verify this news?

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@elonmusk Ohhhh… Is Anthropic the real life version of an early days Weyland-Yutani Corporation????

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

One aspect less discussed of the current crisis is why the supply shortages will be long lasting, even if the war ends tomorrow. We are in the 4th week of the blockade. As time goes bye, without the possibility of exporting or storing the oil (storage has been largely exhausted across the region, except Saudi), oil wells must be shut-in (natgas can be flared and burned). That is, the flow of oil must be stopped. When you do that, you almost certainly damage the oil well, as the chemical and physical balance of the well is thrown off kilt. Restarting production fully and safely requires time and - a lot - of money. The longer the shut-in, the higher the damage. Some oil wells, especially the more mature, will never recover pre-war output. Some may not be worth, economically, to restart. But at the core of the restarting process sit 4 companies: Halliburton, Schlumberger (now SLB), Baker Hughes and Weatherford. When the call comes, they will be hard pressed to service all the oil wells that will need repairing. Here’s Halliburton stock the last month. It’s the same story for all 4. The turning point? 13 March, when Kharg Island was attacked…

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@isaacrrr7 Good luck doing that in Heathrow… police people would be burnt in the stake…

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@zerohedge Do they have to throw coins into a land-bound basket to pay the toll?

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

I hate to be the party… well, you know, but we started shaky from the get go: oil production from the Gulf-locked countries is about 21 million bbl/day. That is NOT what used to transit thru Hormuz. Arab countries consume quite a bit of their own oil. Transit thru Hormuz was about 13 million bbl/day (according to Kpler, Aaaaaaaaamennnnnn). That’s still a massive 26% of seaborne oil. You cannot make that up. Saudi can reroute thru Yanbu (and pray the Houthis won’t get naughty) perhaps up to 5 million bbl/day (can Yanbu handle that when their pre-war volume was typically 2 million?). Not enough. Russia had, perhaps, 1 million bbl slack before the war, but now they cannot load it (after Ukrainian attacks in the Baltic ports and Novorossyisk). So your main point remains: this is a heck of a massive shock. Biggest ever. Kids, you didn’t see Jack Nicklaus win 18 majors, so THIS is your piece of history. As for financial markets, what do you expect them to do? Hope for the best is the only alternative (front future trading a huge backwardation to Brent FOB). How would the dinosaurs have traded the asteroid? Luckily, this is a man-made mess. Contrary to the asteroid, it will pass… and that’s what markets are trading.

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

…and the hare-brained, self-defeating, sanctions on Russian energy. How much more tax revenue could Germany be collecting on a growing economy? Then they could be buying actual weapons for their favorite unelected democrat, Volodya Zelensky. But I guess signaling virtue is more important.

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@Cobratate Man, the problem of that woman is not her past, it’s her nose…

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

I’m disappointed in you @runews, you should know better. Russia doesn’t need Nordstream to deliver plenty of gas to Western Europe. It doesn’t need Druzhba either. Gazprom DECIDED years ago that they won’t renew the transit deal with Druzhba. All is needed is for Poland to payoff the debt with Gazprom on which they defaulted when the war started, and the Yamal pipeline (thru Poland) can come online again. With that, Turkstream and Bluestream (thru the Black Sea and the Balkans), Europe’s natgas problems would be largely solved. If they lift restrictions on privately-owned Novatek, Europeans can get some additional LNG to make up any remaining scarcity because of the destruction of Nordstream. If anything, you should taunt Ursula for her lack of global solidarity, as she prefers to continue virtue-signaling on Ukraine rather than helping to solve the budding European and World natgas crisis by taking the obvious and reasonable step: buying Russian natgas again.

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@runews Well, that’s cute: they even wear a jersey similar to Argentina’s. Yet Diego (Maradona) started dribling on Argie’s side of the field…

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@robin_j_brooks …and you don’t want to look at the 30 dollar premium that Asia is paying for ESPO over Brent…

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@JavierBlas Oops…

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

El problema de la visión barrabrava de la geopolítica es que no considera las consecuencias para el equipo propio: si persisten, estos “persas” no le van a dejar otra opción a Orange Man que bombardearlos de vuelta a los tiempos de Ciro el Grande. “Removing the functionality of the Iranian state” que le dicen…

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@Convertbond The Strait of Hormuz has NEVER been blockaded before, not even during the Iranian revolution. This time IS different.

[Steppenwolf_h11 @Steppenwolf_cfm]

@ThePatriotOasis @Grok is this recent footage from the oil processing facilities in Kharg island?