Steve Ellison 🐍

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

Mid-year update! Now 55 years of convincing reasons why the stock market should go down, superimposed over the 67x increase in the S&P 500 during the same time period (8x when adjusted for inflation). Tariffs are the provisional reason why stocks should have gone down this year.

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@tom_thomasson That bump at 9-day VIX presumably is for the SpaceX IPO. #ES #stocks

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@jdmarkman The trade got far too crowded. On my point and figure chart there is a multi-year trend line below 300 (roughly 3300-3500 in the futures). Maybe at that point the favorable fundamentals will re-assert themselves (central bank buying, inflation being the easy way out of sov debt..

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@BatesLine I credit my childhood love of baseball and the endless statistics associated with it for setting me on the path to be a quant finance analyst. But is baseball itself baseballish in the Moneyball era? Now a manager will replace a pitcher after 90 pitches even if he has a no-hitter

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

A striking sea of red ink in my notes on prices today as stocks, bonds, crude oil, gold, and bitcoin were all sharply down. I guess the US dollar must have been up since it is the denominator of all these prices. #ES #markets

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@nnzp1730 Love this ... my kids are in their 30s now, but I trained them that way, and to call adults (when they were kids) Mr. and Mrs. or Ms.

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

The original article: https://t.co/i79iA8aon7

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

"Our hiring got out of control in 2020-21, and we really need to rein in our headcount expenses to stay competitive. But that makes it sound as if we made a mistake. We would sound so much smarter and more competent if we said we were cutting jobs because we're--cough--using AI".

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@bclund Yep, even in my good trades, I've been feeling like I left a lot of money on the table in April and May. I think this is a reason buy and hold outperforms so many timing strategies: "late stage" bull markets that are "overvalued" can continue getting even more so for years. #ES

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@lilienfeld1 @ROSGO21 @CaitlinClark22 I never resumed following MLB after 1994 when they terminated San Francisco Giant Matt Williams's (and others') pursuit of the pre-steroid single season home run record.

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

Checkers champion Tom Wiswell, looking at the pieces arranged at the start of a game: “The mistakes are all there, waiting to be made.” My sentiments exactly when reviewing a point and figure chart spanning a period when I was actively trading. #ES #stocks #EdSpec

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

Magazine cover indicator: Does the track record of Economist covers as contrary indicators suggest the real threat to employment is not AI itself, but a recession caused by the bursting of an AI bubble? #ES #stocks

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@AgustinLebron3 I still remember in the summer of 2000 sitting down with my boss for my annual performance and salary review at a big tech company and thinking it almost seemed quaint to be working for a salary. Many of my colleagues had left to go to startups. A year later it didn't seem quaint

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@bclund Seeing this a day late, on Saturday morning, but, "AAAAAAAAAAAAA!" (does a random run)

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@judahrhodie @ZeeContrarian1 @Kalshi I doubt a single person will unsubscribe. Most subscribers to permabears secretly yearn for a crash, and they get much more value from perceiving a kindred spirit than from actually following the investment (or outvestment) advice. #ES #stocks

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@BatesLine I wondered whether Stonehenge was built while Great Britain was still connected to the mainland of Europe, but it appears the current monument at least dates from a few thousand years after the Channel was inundated.

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

It's always about supply and demand: MBA programs offer discounts as enrollments fall.
https://t.co/ATl2bLk0PV

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@bclund That's every day I trade!

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@bclund "We're using AI!"

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@ZeeContrarian1 @Barchart Everybody knows about death crosses and the most commonly cited moving averages, so any alpha was long since arbed away; in fact in my testing I've found death crosses to be good contrary indicators for the S&P 500, i.e. a bullish forward expectation.

[Steve Ellison 🐍 @SteveEllison271]

@rfmx22 Dynamax: the ordinary battles that appear on the map are straightforward, but Gigantamax raids with very powerful raid bosses, usually pre-announced as special events, either take a group of 30 to win, or, more difficult, limit group size to 4, making Pokemon & movesets critical