Steven J. XU

professional in:
Grand Strategy | International Security | Intelligence | War | Economics
E. Asian Affairs | China & Hong Kong
PRIVATE ACCOUNT, PRIVATE OPINIONS

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESIGNATION
"A FAREWELL TO ARMS"

Many know that I once stood on the edge of becoming a pilot. During my training, my training captain once said to me with quiet gravity:
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[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

To Trump, his legacy will be fully blown up by the VP he trusts and selects. It is unfortunate to see he picks two VPs in his two Presidential terms, and both VPs betray him in some ways. The strategic implication of the MOU is the U.S. will die. Will he and his VP afford to it?

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

I am not anti-Trump, nor I am anti-U.S. or anti-E.U. To the opposite, I am not pro-Iran, pro-Russia or pro any U.S. adversaries. These are politics. By contrast, I am only responsible to tell the reality, even they could be dire, which is what intelligence professionals must do.

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

Congratulations, the world! Enjoy the short-lived peace and gear up for a more epic and more grandeur World War 3, together with the Cold War 2! The MOU is full of empty words, loopholes and wishful thinking. Enjoy the death to the U.S. and Europe. They will reap what they sow.

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

However, the space for expanding its war in Europe will still face to a same blind ally in the end, though the E.U. will be drawn into the war. Russia's national interests are quite different from China as their strategic gestures are different. China will be one of the victims.

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

Remember, DO NOT name the military exercise for any neighboring nations - no Japan, no the Philippines, no Taiwan, just sit back, relax, and enjoy the sunshine on the deck. Everyone understands what it is for, just play the game in your own way. To know the way, fell free to ask.

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

Congratulations, the world! Enjoy the short-lived peace and gear up for a more epic and more grandeur World War 3, together with the Cold War 2! The MOU is full of empty words, loopholes and wishful thinking. Enjoy the death to the U.S. and Europe. They will reap what they sow.

[Conflict Radar @Conflict_Radar]

New Details on a Memorandum of Understanding with 14 Articles Between Iran and the United States:

"1. Permanent and immediate cessation of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

2. The United States' commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

3. Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.

4. The United States' commitment to withdrawing its forces from Iran's periphery.

5. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days according to Iranian arrangements.

6. Suspension of sanctions on oil and petrochemical sales and their derivatives, and enabling Iran to have full access to its financial revenues.

7. The necessity for the United States and its allies to provide plans for Iran's reconstruction valued at no less than $300 billion.

8. Negotiation for 60 days to reach a final agreement based on the nuclear file and complete cancellation of primary and secondary U.S. sanctions, as well as UN Security Council resolutions and resolutions of the IAEA Board of Governors.

9. Affirmation of Iran's commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by not producing nuclear weapons.

10. During the negotiation period, the United States commits to not increasing its forces in the region or imposing any new sanctions.

11. Release of $24 billion of frozen Iranian funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations, with half of this amount made available before the start of negotiations.

12. Formation of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.

13. Ratification of the final agreement through a resolution by the UN Security Council.

14. Final negotiations shall not begin before the release of half of the frozen funds, suspension of oil sanctions, and lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement shall focus solely on the fate of enriched materials, the issue of enrichment, lifting of sanctions, and rebuilding the Iranian economy, while the Iranian missile program file and support for what is called the "Axis of Resistance" are definitively excluded from the agenda"

source: Mehr News

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

However, there's some immediate moves that Beijing can make to earn some more breathing space before the arrival of real strategy. It is time for China to send its aircraft carrier to the Bashi Strait and enjoy several days of sea tour with a holiday mood.
https://t.co/IxXBmU2lqt

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

It is highly unlikely a deception, but a strategic misstep of the U.S. If there is a deception, the military operation should be carried out no later than the end of President Trump's state visit to China, and the ultimate objective should be set to Iran's regime change.

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

Translation: if a deal with the United States has "NEVER BEEN CLOSER", an Epic Fury 2 War with the Islamic Republic of Iran is "MUCH MUCH CLOSER". Take a close eye on the closed or closer deal. Some longer and stronger "defensive attacks" are likely to close out a deal or a war.

[Nick Sortor @nicksortor]

🚨 JUST IN: The Iranian Foreign Minister CONFIRMS that a deal with the United States has "NEVER BEEN CLOSER"

He also calls out news media for speculating as to what the deal entails.

JD Vance confirms the Iranians are receiving NO CASH and NO FUNDS will be unfrozen.

Close the deal, 47! 🇺🇸

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

@JDVance Then, why you don't refute rumors immediately? You are in a war!

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

7. The U.S. reserves the right to supervise and/or check the fulfillment of the terms at any time, by any means, in anywhere of the designated sites of Iran with or without prior notice. Iran has no right to reject, delay, restrict or disturb the U.S. rights of enforcement.

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

This is a much better version. If I am Trump, I will add two extra terms. They give Iran realistic pressure to push ahead the deal. If not, military gets in.:

6. If Iran fails to fulfill any term of the deal, the U.S. reserves the right of enforcing the fulfillment by any means.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

President Trump has outlined the following terms for a deal with Iran, according to Fox News:

1. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open.
2. No nuclear material - all existing stockpiles will be removed from Iran.
3. Iran's nuclear program must be completely dismantled.
4. No funds will be released to Iran until it carries out every term of the deal.
5. Iran cannot fund terrorist groups.

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

If it is what the terms of the MOU: https://t.co/XwHLZckNDk
Trump is right, Bibi might soon be left alone against Iran as the U.S. surrenders. Iran is almost certain to be more dangerously aggressive, and the world is almost certain to be more messy. Strike while the iron is hot.

[Faytuks News @Faytuks]

Trump tells N12 that: "I told Bibi, you better be very careful with what you do, because you might soon be left alone against Iran"

He adds that "I think Iran is interested in signing a deal"

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

@jonkessler20 Definitely it is. When two armies meet on a narrow path, the brave one will prevail. Getting Maduro and the case of retrieving F-15 pilot from Iran are the exact examples of that ancient Chinese military philosophy, by contrast, many political guys lack the spirit, so they fail.

[Steven J. XU @StevenJXU1]

@jonkessler20 Definitely it is. When two armies meet on a narrow path, the brave one will prevail. Getting Maduro and the case of retrieving F-15 pilot from Iran are the exact examples of that ancient Chinese military philosophy, by contrast, many political guys lack the spirit, so they fail.