Steven Koehl

God bless!

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@amitisinvesting Yes

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas Amazon

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas Video on this topic please!

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas Amazon

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@stocktalkweekly Is it true that they’re considering merging also with Tesla?

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

*BREAKING: SPACEX OFFICIALLY ACQUIRES XAI

Details from SpaceX website:

xAI joins SpaceX to Accelerate Humanity’s Future

SpaceX has acquired xAI to form the most ambitious, vertically-integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth, with AI, rockets, space-based internet, direct-to-mobile device communications and the world’s foremost real-time information and free speech platform. This marks not just the next chapter, but the next book in SpaceX and xAI's mission: scaling to make a sentient sun to understand the Universe and extend the light of consciousness to the stars!

Current advances in AI are dependent on large terrestrial data centers, which require immense amounts of power and cooling. Global electricity demand for AI simply cannot be met with terrestrial solutions, even in the near term, without imposing hardship on communities and the environment.

In the long term, space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale. To harness even a millionth of our Sun’s energy would require over a million times more energy than our civilization currently uses!

The only logical solution therefore is to transport these resource-intensive efforts to a location with vast power and space. I mean, space is called “space” for a reason.

By directly harnessing near-constant solar power with little operating or maintenance costs, these satellites will transform our ability to scale compute. It’s always sunny in space! Launching a constellation of a million satellites that operate as orbital data centers is a first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization, one that can harness the Sun’s full power, while supporting AI-driven applications for billions of people today and ensuring humanity’s multi-planetary future.

[Jeremy Lefebvre @HolySmokas]

Palantir gets first ever A++ grade in the history of me grading income statements. Congratulations $PLTR

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas What do you think of Clorox?

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas Nike

[amit @amitisinvesting]

$TSLA

Tesla FSD is getting a bit ridiculous for me now.

I’ve been using 14.2 for the past month. Last night, I went to Walmart.

I came out of Walmart with my shopping cart, took my hands off the shopping cart for 2 seconds, looked for the button to press to turn on “autonomy,” and then legit let my shopping cart go by itself before realizing…the shopping cart doesn’t have FSD 😂

Like I actually am so used to getting in the car and not worrying about driving now that I subliminally thought the shopping cart would just autonomously find its way to the car without me having to do anything 😭

It’s getting ridiculous but also proving to me that I can never go back to driving without autonomy and once people experience this, it’s really hard to imagine life without FSD.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Last wk, 1) AI related $MU +10% nxt day on earnings (unlike $AVGO $NVDA which sold off hard), 2) OpenAI raising money at $830B valuation, 3) core CPI surprising at lowest since Mar-2021, put themes driving this mkt for past 3 yrs back on optimistic footing: easy money & AI.

I posted on Wednesday “there were some signs of at least a potential short-term bottom. $JBL was up 2% on a beat & raise qtr, while $MSFT which owns 27% of OpenAI was down only 0.1% despite the continuing bludgeoning of OpenAI related names $ORCL and $SFTBY, both down 4-5%.”

I was fortunate and this indeed turned out to be the case. The S&P/Mag7/GOOGL complex/ OAI complex was +1.7%/+2.8%/+8.8%/+10.0% on Thursday and Friday combined in response I believe to the three catalysts above. Having said that, you could say they were just +0.1%/+1.5%/-0.1%/+2.3% for the entire wk.

Looking forward, the part of the calendar dubbed “the Santa Claus rally” by Yale Hirsch is coming which is the last 5 trading days of the year plus the two trading days of the upcoming year. It is up over 70% of the time with an average return of 1.3%.

To be clear, I try to focus on the market right in front of me and look for high probability opportunities for good risk adjusted returns during which I can add or subtract exposure at hopefully opportune times. Anytime I can have the odds in my favor is a blessing.

From a longer-term viewpoint, as I said on Thursday on the @riskreversal podcast, I expect the market to be choppy in 2026.

On the negative side, it would not surprise me when OAI launches their advertising product to see the $GOOGL complex of stocks get hit early in the year and the OpenAI complex to rally. In addition, some of the ads on $META are also going to switch. It is just math that OAI will take some share given it is going from 0% of the online ad market and has around ~900M weekly users.

It also seems that inflation was not actually this low given that not all the data was collected leaving some components at minimal change in the calculation. But this is what we have to work with and the market is reacting to it, rightly or wrongly. This could mean a higher than expected inflation print a month from now while the trailing PE on the S&P is a high at 26x .

On the positive side to start the year, the Fed moved from Quantitative Tightening to “QE light” in December with the Fed now buying $40B per month in treasuries. In addition due to the OBBB, there should be $100-$150B in consumer tax refunds in Q1 and corporations will get tax benefits related to R&D and capital expenditures.

Looking out further, the new Fed chair appointed by President Trump in May is going to want to cut rates another 50-100 bps at least. Easy money has been a core driver for this market for the past several years and that is not likely to change.

In summary, I am looking forward to spending time with family, watching my favorite Christmas movies and a Santa Claus rally to end the year. But as Charles Darwin would say, I am trying to stay “adaptable to change” as I think about 2026. I expect the year to be choppy but with an upward bias due to the continuation of both easy money and the AI trade though I expect it to be more discerning.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

SELLING Palantir https://t.co/CRctVOTMic via @YouTube

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas What do you think of Clorox?

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas Different strokes for different folks…. My portfolios are mixed. I gained most of my ETFs while I worked for a corporation for 25 years. I was unable to pick individual stocks in my 401(k), and I was not about to pass up on the company match!

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas Disagree, passive investing is better than no investing at all. If you don’t invest your money it sits idle and will be devoured by inflation. The S&P 500 inclusion may help a stock in the short term, but in the long-term they still need to perform to stay included.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

While on the surface today was a horrible day for the AI names with both the $GOOGL & OpenAI complex down 4%; there were some signs of at least a potential short-term bottom. $JBL was up 2% on a beat & raise qtr, while $MSFT which owns 27% of OpenAI was down only 0.1% despite the continuing bludgeoning of OpenAI related names $ORCL and $SFTBY, both down 4-5%.

If $MU, a leading high-bandwidth memory supplier, manages to rally tomorrow in response to spectacular guidance (EPS guided ~76% above consensus and revs guided ~31% above) this may be at least a short-term tradeable bottom for the market into what is normally a seasonally great time to own stocks. This would be a change following AI bell-weathers $NVDA and $AVGO selling off hard following solid guidance recently. During the Santa Claus rally, which is the last 5 trading days of the current year plus the 2 days of the upcoming year, the S&P is typically up over 70% of the time with an average gain of 1.3%.

The recent drawdown in AI related stocks I believe is justified given 1) not every company will win which has been how they have traded over the past 3 years and 2) it is hard to believe OpenAI can fund $1.4 trillion in capital commitments over the next 8 years.

But I believe this drawdown is more akin to the drawdowns in 1997 or 1998 when $CSCO, the internet infrastructure bell weather and most valuable company in the world during its peak, declined over 37-38% from peak to trough during the year while still finishing up nicely for both years (+31% in C1997 and +150% in C1998). With the launch of inference intensive applications like Nano Banana in August and Sora2 in September in addition to greater adoption of AI applications by corporations, inference demand is inflecting higher.

Also from a time perspective the AI buildout is only in year 3 versus the internet buildout which was closer to 6 years before its ultimate peak.

Best of luck to all during the final days of 2025.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Last wk, S&P -0.6%, Mag7 -2.0%, AI index -3.7% but EW S&P +0.7% & R2K +1.2%. Fed starting “QE light” sparked S&P rally on 12/10. S&P edged higher on 12/11 despite $ORCL -11% on poor results but was hit hard on 12/12 w/ $AVGO -11% despite ostensibly beat & raise results.

The $GOOGL related companies declined 4% last wk driven by the decline in Broadcom while the OpenAI related companies declined 7% driven by Oracle.

The reaction to the Broadcom results were particularly disheartening following the lowered bar set by Oracle results the prior day. Oracle 1) missed total revs & cloud expectations for the qtr, 2) had much higher than expected $10B in FCF burn for the qtr, 3) raised capex to $50B from $35B for FY26 while revs went up by only $4B for FY27 and 4) gave minimal clarity on how OpenAI was going to finance their ~$300B in spending commitments.

For Broadcom, forward street estimates for FY26 revs/EPS both went higher by 7%/5% respectively but investors seemed to be more focused on a combination of 1) AI racks having lower margins, 2) some concerns that management could have pushed back even harder on concerns that Google in the future could take TPU designs in house and 3) no formal guidance update for AI revenue growth for FY26 though it is clearly going higher.

This upcoming week has the non-farm payrolls report on Tuesday and the CPI report on Thursday for November. Remember that we had no standalone October reports of either due the government shutdown so these numbers will be scrutinized even more closely for their impact to the Fed’s future policy.

As for AI datapoints, $MU reports on Wednesday and everyone knows a beat and raise quarter is coming from this high-bandwidth memory supplier. As I always say though, the reaction to the data is probably more important than the data itself. For the past three quarters despite strong beat and raise results, the stock has declined the following day.

So what can we expect as we enter the last two full weeks of the year? Historically, the market typically rallies during the last 5 trading days of the calendar year plus the first two of the upcoming year for a combined returned of 1.3% on average and a high hit ratio of over 70%. This is of course called the Santa Claus rally.

But as a reminder, this past week the equal weighted S&P and broader R2K rallied but there were declines in the overall market, the Magnificent 7 and the AI names in general.

Looking forward I will just repeat what I wrote in my post last Sunday and “recommend a diversified basket of stocks for the positions held versus just AI or Magnificent 7 names.”

Happy holidays to everyone and invest in that which is most important, family and friends.

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas Investing enough to live off of comfortably. The rest I would also invest and would gift the annual revenue to family, friends and charities.

[Steven Koehl @StevenKoehl1]

@HolySmokas Latino, white