Steven.N

Real economy macro
Energy, cost & supply constraints
Mapping flows → pressure → system impact.
BTC through macro lens

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

The market is currently factoring-in a disruption. The data indicates that we have moved into a regime.
Core CPI at 0.4%, (the same as the prior month), was down from 0.7% last month. Import Prices at 1.9% were 2 times of the Consensus forecast. Wages in real terms fell YOY. IEA has made it clear there will be no reopening by June and in a treaty Iran had Sovereignty over Hormuz for the first time. None of these would be classified as temporary.
Below is weekly dashboard link:
https://t.co/DvjhrNiXuc

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@PeterSchiff Gold does not track war duration. It tracks real rates.
If Warsh hikes into a war driven inflation spike, nominal yields rise faster than breakevens. That is the actual headwind, not peace talks.
The war is noise, Fed reaction function is the signal.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

Stock positions reflect past decisions. The question is marginal flow. Record holdings can be mark-to-market appreciation of existing positions - not net new conviction buying.
The level says "they own dollars." The direction is a separate question.
Owning dollars is not the same as choosing dollars.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@chigrl Fiscal policy has effectively overridden monetary policy.
Central banks can hike, but they cannot hike against a government that won't stop borrowing. That is the regime.
Monetary policy tightens, fiscal policy ignores it. Which one wins?

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

Lowest since 2013 but the interpretation splits cleanly.
If it is demand-led drawdown: restocking cycle incoming, bullish for industrials & distributors.
If it is tariff front-loading now unwinding: the drawdown is artificial & restocking never comes.
The chart is clear. The cause is the entire debate.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

Today's CPI report could kill the last remaining argument for rate cuts.
We are seeing an increase in March with a 3.3%, then April at 3.8%, followed by May at 4.2%. That is going in one direction.
Warsh meets June 17 - 7 days from now. The "he'll cut rates" trade has been the market's anchor since his nomination.
4.2% print does not just make cuts impossible. It makes the people still pricing cuts look like they were not paying attention.
What's your read - hike in June or hold?

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

Japanese Yen is at a 40 year low while BoJ is supposedly normalizing.
That is not a chart anomaly. That is the market saying the normalization story has limits.

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Japan

Japanese Yen approaching its weakest level against the U.S. Dollar in almost 40 years 📉🇯🇵

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@business Weak auction demand is the symptom. The real story is BoJ being forced to choose between inflation credibility & JGB market stability. That is fiscal dominance making its way into the long end.
Japan's long end is not pricing BoJ hikes. It is pricing fiscal permanence.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@PeterSchiff The real bull case is fiscal: $36T debt, $2T+ annual deficits & Fed cannot tighten without breaking something. Iran re-escalation just reminds us that case exists.
War is a catalyst; debt is the thesis. Don't confuse the two.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

April +8 ton, May +10 ton comes right as the tariff truce reduces urgency to hold USD liquidity. China is not just diversifying - they are timing the reallocation around geopolitical windows.
9% FX allocation still looks low until we realize reported reserves are the floor, not the ceiling.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@Reuters Watch the June 15-16 meeting vote split. A divided board on taper pace is more informative than the decision itself - it tells us how much runway Ueda actually has left.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

China signals $295B in data center spend over 5 yrs.
While the U.S tightens chip export controls, Beijing is building the substrate anyway with state capital & no earnings pressure.
The compute race does not pause for geopolitics. It accelerates because of it.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Premarket Movers:

Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +0.4%, Amazon +0.6%, Meta +1.1%, Alphabet +0.6%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.3%).

Chipmakers, opticals and storage firms rise, on track to extend gains, as the group rebounds in the wake of Friday’s sharp selloff.

Lithium stocks rise as Citi remains bullish on the metal, seeing a recovery in prices after the recent selloff.

Applied Digital (APLD) is up 11% after the neocloud company said it signed a 15-year take-or-pay lease with a US-based artificial intelligence hyperscaler, for 210 megawatts of critical IT load at its Delta Forge 2 campus.

CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO) gains 13% as the manufacturer of water treatment equipment updated its full year outlook after closing Thermon Group Holdings acquisition.

GDS Holdings ADRS (GDS) rise along with other Chinese cloud providers as people familiar with the matter said that China is preparing to spend around $295 billion over the next five years to build data centers across the country.

Mission Produce (AVO) falls 2% after the avocado supplier reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.

Nuvalent (NUVL) is up 39% after GSK agreed to acquire the company for $10.6 billion. The transaction will accelerate GSK’s entry into the lung cancer space and could help offset the looming patent expiry of its HIV drug dolutegravir, Barclays analyst James Gordon wrote in a note.

Perrigo (PRGO) slips 1% after the company’s CEO Patrick Lockwood-Taylor resigned from both roles and from the board, following a determination that certain personal conduct was inconsistent with the company’s code of conduct and core values.

SailPoint (SAIL) falls 13% after the software company’s quarterly results and outlook isn’t enough to extend recent strength in the stock, which is up nearly 70% off an April low as of last close.

Vail Resorts (MTN) is down 4% after the ski resort operator cut its net income guidance for the full year, attributing the reduction to “historically challenging” weather conditions in the western US.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@zerohedge Q1 import surge from tariff front-loading inflated the prior baseline. This is mean reversion, not reshoring.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@KobeissiLetter BoJ is still in active normalization - every incremental hike compresses that spread. Shorts at $11B are essentially betting MoF blinks before BoJ delivers.
That is a crowded trade with a known catalyst risk.
MoF is trying to hold a line that BoJ's own policy is quietly moving.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@PeterSchiff @saylor Yep. But it is the wrong thing to worry about.
MSTR's actual vulnerability is its convertible note structure under a sustained BTC drawdown - not whether Saylor chose to sell BTC instead of stock.
Two different risk frameworks. Only one matters.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@WatcherGuru Fear & Greed at 11 tells us how retail feels. Perp funding rates & options skew tell us how money is actually positioned. Right now those two stories are not fully aligned.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@MichaelAArouet EU made tethered caps compulsory. SpaceX found a use case.
That is compliance diffusion, not EU innovation. The bar moved.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@LizAnnSonders Yep, but hire rate is still declining. Openings signal intent - not commitment. When quits fall alongside rising vacancies, that is labor market friction, not expansion.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@FirstSquawk UEDA is describing a structural shift in firm behavior - but JGB markets are still pricing BoJ as reactive, not proactive. The gap between institutional narrative & market positioning is where the next dislocation lives.

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

@LLuciano_BTC Liquidation cascades are not anomalies - they are a feature of perp market design. Leverage exists to be periodically blown out.
The real question is who is sitting on the other side of that $1.86 billion?

[Steven.N @StevenMacroView]

The real story is a permanent competitiveness wedge.
Every dollar of SAF mandate IAG absorbs is a dollar Turkish, Emirates & Air China do not. Europe is not raising costs for its airlines. It's subsidizing their competitors.
The $48B figure also assumes revenue holds. The question is how much passes through to fares before demand breaks? Low-cost carriers have almost no pricing buffer. Full-service carriers do - but only until Gulf competition undercuts them on long-haul.
Europe is running a carbon compliance experiment. The control group is called Turkish airlines.