Steve Rayson

Author 'The Fall of the Red Wall', ‘Badgeland' and ‘Collapse of the Conservatives’. Co-founder @buzzsumo @kineo. Still learning.

[Steve Rayson @steverayson]

My new book 'Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election' is published today! You can get a copy at https://t.co/G5YewSSUzD

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

This @LRB piece from @DowningAm is just a fantastic tour d'horizon of Britain's energy system. A must-read for anyone hoping to navigate the coming decade. Remember: energy is more or less EVERYTHING! https://t.co/CpcX5uysA3

[Peter Hague @peterrhague]

SpaceX will literally have rocket landing pads on Mars before we build a new runway at Heathrow. No exaggeration.

[Alex Wickham @alexwickham]

Andy Burnham is facing an immediate backlash over his hint this morning that he could cancel the Heathrow third runway

Unite’s Sharon Graham says: “A third runway at Heathrow is essential and we need to get going with it”

GMB’s Gary Smith says: “We need to put an end to decades of talk and lost benefits for working people across the country and get cracking”

John Armitt, former chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, says: “Cancelling or delaying Heathrow expansion would not release a penny for the north; it would simply send tens of billions of private capital, and the jobs that come with it, somewhere else in the world”

Parmjit Dhanda, former Labour MP and executive director of Back Heathrow: “It is now a test of whether Britain is serious about economic growth. It’s time to get it done, and open the doors to nearly £50 billion of inward private sector investment”

Labour MP Siobhan McDonagh says: “The debate over Heathrow expansion has been going on for far too long; the time has come to simply get on and build the third runway”

Heathrow itself says: “Critically, expanding Heathrow is a national project which will create jobs and boost growth in every part of the country”

[Steve Rayson @steverayson]

If the government is serious about reversing deindustrialisation surely it has to do something about energy prices.

[Iain Martin @iainmartin1]

Diesel shows Britain’s low resilience just in time model running out of road. Now the US is considering a diesel export ban. Canada has 1382 days of supply stockpiled. Japan 1025. Britain? 42. Great @EdConwaySky explainer on @SkyNews

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

👀 This chart, from the tail end of my explainer here 👇 might be about to become one of the most important issues in UK politics.
How and why did the government allow its emergency stockpiles of diesel to drop to one of the lowest levels in the developed world...?

[Steve Rayson @steverayson]

Surely the most stupid tax rise in history https://t.co/Ow8J02vcvf

[John Rentoul @JohnRentoul]

At last Britain is waking up to its Chagos deal mistake https://t.co/5xEzzZDSzG

[Alan Smith @AlanJLSmith]

Around 5% of estates currently pay inheritance tax.

But from April when pensions are brought into the taxable estate @DanNeidle estimates that more than 20% of retired households will be affected.

In some areas, it’s over 50% .

IHT is no longer a niche tax on the rich.

[Alan Smith @AlanJLSmith]

UK insolvencies increased 44 per cent in August 2026 compared to the previous month - and were up by 60 per cent from August 2025.

If next month’s budget is anything other than pro growth/pro business, it could be disastrous for the UK.

[Steve Rayson @steverayson]

The difficulty for any govt in reducing or taking away benefits is clearly set out in the 1970 book ‘why men rebel’ by Ted Gurr. Such actions create a feeling of relative deprivation, an intense collective sense of unfairness & anger that has the potential for political violence.

[Dan Neidle @DanNeidle]

Why do so many care about inheritance tax when fewer than 5% of estates pay it?

Because that statistic counts the dead.

Our new model counts living pensioner households instead. 20% have enough assets to face the tax. Over 50% in parts of London.

Thread:

[Ian Leslie @mrianleslie]

It’s insane that Lisa Nandy is anywhere near Britain’s AI policy

[Feargal Sharkey @Feargal_Sharkey]

"Key allies of PM issue warning as details emerge of his plan to give mayors powers to oversee water companies."

I suspect I'm going to get very monotonous about all of this over coming weeks.

To repeat the problem with the water industry is ownership, fix that you fix the issue. Everything else is irrelevant.

https://t.co/u6oWIBAhe8

[Simon French @Frencheconomics]

This would be the chart that would worry me at No.10 (North & South). Rents now rising at +4.2% YoY. There were plenty of warnings that the Renters Reform Act would constrain supply, and cause a surge in rents. Typically rents lag core inflation by ~18 months (due to lease renewal lags) so the pick coming now - with more inflation likely in the new year - risks making this a big political problem heading into an election.

[Mark MacKinnon @markmackinnon]

It seems Zelensky and Ukraine are now the scapegoats for the price spikes caused by Trump's disastrous war against Iran...

[David Aaronovitch @DAaronovitch]

Straightforward racism

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

If these moves and levels persist, let alone get worse, they will ring alarm bells across most economies as they:
Intensify affordability pressures,
Fuel headwinds to growth,
Worsen inequality,
Weaken fiscal dynamics, and
Add to financial instability risks.
#economy #markets #oil #yields

[Paul Johnson @PJTheEconomist]

This is a staggering failure of governance & basic competence. To announce a major restructuring of local government after two years of work and then to halt the whole thing for fear you’ve not acted legally is not impressive. And costly for all concerned. https://t.co/v6hxfNqyeh

[Tim Leunig @timleunig]

According to @BBCNews, @PwC_UK have found that almost 50% of people live in areas with "less spending power than the national average". Either @BBCNews or @PwC_UK need to learn how averages work... Truly shocking. https://t.co/inXBFW5xj3