The excitement around Kimi K3 seems to support my "intelligence saturation" hypothesis.
TLDR - most people only need so much intelligence (capability, context, benchmarks, tool use, reasoning, etc) from models. Beyond that extra capability is wasted on them.
At that point, intelligence becomes a commodity. Sort of like how all CPUs are 64 bit today, and no one really thinks about it. At least on the consumer side.
In tech infrastructure, we break this down into two dimensions: lateral scaling and vertical scaling. Lateral scaling is adding more parallel processing or nodes that are cheap. Vertical scaling is making one thing bigger and more impressive.
At this point, we're nearing the point where open source models satisfy like 90% or more of all demand. Then it's just a matter of "who's GPU is it running on?" and that becomes the key market niche.
By the end of the year, and certainly within 12 calendar months, you'll have a library of open weight models to pick from that run at thousands of tokens per second, which will do the vast majority of the work you want.
@kevinroose recently tweeted that he'd overheard at an AI lab "what are you doing for the last 300 days of work?"
In this video, I unpack how credible that quotation is, and what it could really mean.
TLDR - probably not literally the "last 300 days of work" but within the next 300 days I would not be surprised if agentic AI is ready for prime time in the Fortune 500 space AND that robotic foundation models also reach saturation.
@DaveShapi That’s fair. It’s a fun tool and it’s crazy how it’s changed my listening habits. My kids are getting a bit tired of my songs about what I cooked them for dinner though…
For the first time in a long time, @evan_bevins and @stiznarkey both hit Infinite last season. Check out their Merge Dragon and BastionBro decks in this episode! How did your season go?
#MarvelSnap
https://t.co/mcTBoqfGv1
Four Colour Thoughts – Planet of the Apes Versus Fantastic Four #1
The title says it all. Marvel's First Family meets Cornelius and company on an alternate Earth. #PlanetoftheApes#POTA#FantasticFour#MarvelRivals
Link in the comments.
Good morning! @ScottMWest & I have a fantastic magazine to talk about in today’s episode. But why are we talking about King Diamond? And who is it that turned Vlad the Impaler into the lord of vampires? All this & more await your ears! #horror#comicbooks
https://t.co/9nMRNVGCHS
@evan_bevins and @stiznarkey discuss how close they got to Infinite, what cards they unlocked and what's up with those action figure variants.
#MarvelSnap
https://t.co/aLGGfhRaSM